Modeling nitrous acid and its impact on ozone and hydroxyl radical during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006

Nitrous acid (HONO) mixing ratios for the Houston metropolitan area were simulated with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model for an episode during the Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS) II in August/September 2006 and compared to in-situ MC/IC (mist-chamber/ion chromatograph) and long path DOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) measurements at three different altitude ranges. Several HONO sources were accounted for in simulations, such as gas phase formation, direct emissions, nitrogen dioxide (NO<sub>2</sub>) hydrolysis, photo-induced formation from excited NO<sub>2</sub> and photo-induced conversion of NO<sub>2</sub> into HONO on surfaces covered with organic materials. Compared to the gas-phase HONO formation there was about a tenfold increase in HONO mixing ratios when additional HONO sources were taken into account, which improved the correlation between modeled and measured values. Concentrations of HONO simulated with only gas phase chemistry did not change with altitude, while measured HONO concentrations decrease with height. A trend of decreasing HONO concentration with altitude was well captured with CMAQ predicted concentrations when heterogeneous chemistry and photolytic sources of HONO were taken into account. Heterogeneous HONO production mainly accelerated morning ozone formation, albeit slightly. Also HONO formation from excited NO<sub>2</sub> only slightly affected HONO and ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) concentrations. Photo-induced conversion of NO<sub>2</sub> into HONO on surfaces covered with organic materials turned out to be a strong source of daytime HONO. Since HONO immediately photo-dissociates during daytime its ambient mixing ratios were only marginally altered (up to 0.5 ppbv), but significant increase in the hydroxyl radical (OH) and ozone concentration was obtained. In contrast to heterogeneous HONO formation that mainly accelerated morning ozone formation, inclusion of photo-induced surface chemistry influenced ozone throughout the day

Analysis of discontinuous Galerkin methods using mesh-dependent norms and applications to problems with rough data

We prove the inf-sup stability of a discontinuous Galerkin scheme for second order elliptic operators in (unbalanced) mesh-dependent norms for quasi-uniform meshes for all spatial dimensions. This results in a priori error bounds in these norms. As an application we examine some problems with rough source term where the solution can not be characterised as a weak solution and show quasi-optimal error control

A Mathematical Model for Interpretable Clinical Decision Support with Applications in Gynecology

Over time, methods for the development of clinical decision support (CDS) systems have evolved from interpretable and easy-to-use scoring systems to very complex and non-interpretable mathematical models. In order to accomplish effective decision support, CDS systems should provide information on how the model arrives at a certain decision. To address the issue of incompatibility between performance, interpretability and applicability of CDS systems, this paper proposes an innovative model structure, automatically leading to interpretable and easily applicable models. The resulting models can be used to guide clinicians when deciding upon the appropriate treatment, estimating patient-specific risks and to improve communication with patients.We propose the interval coded scoring (ICS) system, which imposes that the effect of each variable on the estimated risk is constant within consecutive intervals. The number and position of the intervals are automatically obtained by solving an optimization problem, which additionally performs variable selection. The resulting model can be visualised by means of appealing scoring tables and color bars. ICS models can be used within software packages, in smartphone applications, or on paper, which is particularly useful for bedside medicine and home-monitoring. The ICS approach is illustrated on two gynecological problems: diagnosis of malignancy of ovarian tumors using a dataset containing 3,511 patients, and prediction of first trimester viability of pregnancies using a dataset of 1,435 women. Comparison of the performance of the ICS approach with a range of prediction models proposed in the literature illustrates the ability of ICS to combine optimal performance with the interpretability of simple scoring systems.The ICS approach can improve patient-clinician communication and will provide additional insights in the importance and influence of available variables. Future challenges include extensions of the proposed methodology towards automated detection of interaction effects, multi-class decision support systems, prognosis and high-dimensional data

Development and evaluation of the Screening Trajectory Ozone Prediction System (STOPS, version 1.0)

A hybrid Lagrangian–Eulerian based modeling tool has been developed using the Eulerian framework of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. It is a moving nest that utilizes saved original CMAQ simulation results to provide boundary conditions, initial conditions, as well as emissions and meteorological parameters necessary for a simulation. Given that these files are available, this tool can run independently of the CMAQ whole domain simulation, and it is designed to simulate source–receptor relationships upon changes in emissions. In this tool, the original CMAQ's horizontal domain is reduced to a small sub-domain that follows a trajectory defined by the mean mixed-layer wind. It has the same vertical structure and physical and chemical interactions as CMAQ except advection calculation. The advantage of this tool compared to other Lagrangian models is its capability of utilizing realistic boundary conditions that change with space and time as well as detailed chemistry treatment. The correctness of the algorithms and the overall performance was evaluated against CMAQ simulation results. Its performance depends on the atmospheric conditions occurring during the simulation period, with the comparisons being most similar to CMAQ results under uniform wind conditions. The mean bias for surface ozone mixing ratios varies between −0.03 and −0.78 ppbV and the slope is between 0.99 and 1.01 for different analyzed cases. For complicated meteorological conditions, such as wind circulation, the simulated mixing ratios deviate from CMAQ values as a result of the Lagrangian approach of using mean wind for its movement, but are still close, with the mean bias for ozone varying between 0.07 and −4.29 ppbV and the slope varying between 0.95 and 1.06 for different analyzed cases. For historical reasons, this hybrid Lagrangian–Eulerian based tool is named the Screening Trajectory Ozone Prediction System (STOPS), but its use is not limited to ozone prediction as, similarly to CMAQ, it can simulate concentrations of many species, including particulate matter and some toxic compounds, such as formaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene

Immune responses to a recombinant, four-component, meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) in adolescents: A phase III, randomized, multicentre, lot-to-lot consistency study

Background: For decades, a broadly effective vaccine against serogroup B Neisseria meningitidis (MenB) has remained elusive. Recently, a four-component recombinant vaccine (4CMenB) has been developed and is now approved in Europe, Canada, Australia and some Latin American countries. This phase III, randomized study evaluated the lot consistency, early immune responses and the safety profile of 4CMenB in 11 to 17-year-old adolescents in Australia and Canada (NCT01423084). Methods: In total, 344 adolescents received two doses of one of 2 lots of 4CMenB, 1-month apart. Immunogenicity was assessed before, 2-weeks and 1-month following the second vaccination. Serum bactericidal activity using human complement (hSBA) was measured against three reference strains 44/76-SL, 5/99 and NZ98/254, selected to express one of the vaccine antigens; Neisseria adhesin A (NadA), factor H binding protein (fHbp) and porin A (PorA) containing outer membrane vesicle (OMV), respectively. Responses to the Neisseria heparin binding antigen (NHBA) were assessed with enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Local and systemic reactions were recorded for 7 days following each vaccination; unsolicited adverse events were monitored throughout the study. Results: Immunological equivalence of the two lots of 4CMenB was established at 1-month. At baseline, ≤7% of participants had hSBA titers ≥5 to all three reference strains. Two weeks following the second dose of 4CMenB, all participants had hSBA titers ≥5 against fHbp and NadA compared with 84-96% against the PorA reference strains. At 1-month, corresponding proportions were 99%, 100% and 70-79%, respectively. Both lots were generally well tolerated and had similar adverse event profiles. Conclusions: Two doses of 4CMenB had an acceptable safety profile and induced a robust immune response in adolescents. Peak antibody responses were observed at 14 days following vaccination. While a substantial non-uniform antigen-dependent early decline in antibody titers was seen thereafter, a significant percentage of participants continued to maintain protective hSBA titers at 1-month

Constraining aerosol health impacts with sensitivity analysis using the CMAQ adjoint

The role of emissions from different sectors and locations on premature mortalities attributed to exposure to black carbon (BC) was studied using CMAQ adjoint model. While a majority of mortalities occur in highly-populated, urban locations, transport from less-populated r