37 research outputs found

    Reconciling Deep Calibration and Demographic History: Bayesian Inference of Post Glacial Colonization Patterns in Carcinus aestuarii (Nardo, 1847) and C. maenas (Linnaeus, 1758)

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    A precise inference of past demographic histories including dating of demographic events using Bayesian methods can only be achieved with the use of appropriate molecular rates and evolutionary models. Using a set of 596 mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) sequences of two sister species of European green crabs of the genus Carcinus (C. maenas and C. aestuarii), our study shows how chronologies of past evolutionary events change significantly with the application of revised molecular rates that incorporate biogeographic events for calibration and appropriate demographic priors. A clear signal of demographic expansion was found for both species, dated between 10,000 and 20,000 years ago, which places the expansions events in a time frame following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In the case of C. aestuarii, a population expansion was only inferred for the Adriatic-Ionian, suggestive of a colonization event following the flooding of the Adriatic Sea (18,000 years ago). For C. maenas, the demographic expansion inferred for the continental populations of West and North Europe might result from a northward recolonization from a southern refugium when the ice sheet retreated after the LGM. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of using adequate calibrations and demographic priors in order to avoid considerable overestimates of evolutionary time scales

    The Development of an Integrated Coastal Simulator for Supporting Long Term Coastal Management

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    The coastal simulator is designed to provide information on the possible future states of the coast through the 21st Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links a series of models within a nested spatial framework that recognises three scales which provide boundary conditions to the smaller scale: (1) “global”; (2) regional (e.g. North Sea); and (3) the simulator domain (defined by discrete physiographic unit(s)). The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morphodynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morphodynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. The simulator includes a dedicated graphical user interface which allows a range of queries of the results, including visualisations. The prototype simulator is designed to support Shoreline Management Plans (SMP’s), but provides a methodology that could support integrated coastal zone management
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