Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: Portugal Case Study

Report prepared for the Council of Europe (Directorate of Social and Economic Affairs, Population and Migration Division) and for European Commission (Directorate General V, Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs, Unit E1, Analysis and Research on the Social Situation). This paper reports on internal migration and regional population dynamics in Portugal. It examines internal migration patterns and trends in two years, 1981 and 1991, and compares them. Portugal is a country that has reached a population plateau and is currently experiencing very little overall population growth. In 1981 its population was 9.83 millions, only 9.87 millions in 1991 and 9.96 millions in 1997. During the 1980s natural increase steadily diminished and in the 1990s it has virtually ceased. International migration was predominantly negative in balance during the period between the mid 1980s and early 1990s, but has moved into small positive gains in the last few years. When population changes for the 1981-91 period are examined, the picture is broadly of gains in the major urban-centred regions of Norte and Lisboa Vale Tejo, and in the resort industry region of the Algarve. In the more peripheral regions, population decreases occurred, that is in the Centro, Alentejo and Açores regions with Madeira being roughly in balance. Natural increase was strong in the Norte and island regions and compensated for net out-migration, while elsewhere it was weak. All Portuguese NUTS 2 regions except the Algarve lost through migration, with emigration dominating any counter-flows due to internal migration. However, the strong influence of internal migration is apparent when the components of population change at concelhos scale are analysed. The largest cities, Lisboa and Porto, lose population in the 1981-91 period, particularly the capital, and part of the population losses represent migration to surrounding concelhos in the Outer parts of the city regions. Most of the rest of Grande Porto outside of the main city gains population through migration. Around Lisboa these suburban migration gains were experienced by the margins of Lisboa itself, the northern suburbs along the north bank of the Tagus and in a majority of the concelhos of Península Setúbal across the Tagus estuary from Lisboa, namely the southern suburbs linked to the city by two major road bridges. The Censuses of 1981 and 1991, which count migrants in the circa 15-month period before the census date (14½ and 15½ months in the two censuses), provide a picture of how internal migration affects people in different life stages. The all ages pattern of migration in 1979-81 is one of greatest losses from interior and eastern regions (NUTS 3 scale), lesser losses from remoter coastal regions and gains to the urban regions centred on Porto, Lisboa and the Algarve resorts. However, the centres of the Porto and Lisboa regions lose migrants, confirming the earlier interpretation of the components of population change. The situation in 1989-91 was similar but there were fewer regions with great migration losses, more regions with moderate losses and gains around the main urban nodes and the southern tourist coast. This general pattern of redistribution characterises the childhood and family ages (0-14, 25-44) and is intensified in terms of losses from the large cities and suburban gains in the 45-64 age group. Young persons, however, behave differently. In 1979-81 most of the regions of the country lost internal migrants in the 15-24 age group, while Lisboa, Porto and the Algarve experienced substantial migration gains. So, while the family ages showed a de-concentration pattern, the ages at which young adults start independent life careers showed centralising tendencies. The spatial pattern was broadly similar in 1989-91 but more interior regions posted migration gains. The retirement ages, 65 to 74, showed similar centralisation for the female population but not for the male. This age group was the only one that exhibited strong gender differences in the pattern of migration and considerable changes between 1979-81 and 1989-91. Whereas in the former period, the pattern was very much one of interior loss and coastal and urban region gain, in 1989-91, losses from the interior were relatively lower and moderate gains more widespread. At the oldest ages of 75 years or more the strong pattern of interior loss and coastal gain reasserted itself. Portuguese population dynamics thus exhibit some rural depopulation (mainly of the young and the very old), some urbanisation (migration to more densely settled regions around the biggest cities), some suburbanisation (de-concentration within the largest urban regions) and some regional flows to resource exploiting regions (sun and sea in the resort coast of the Algarve). Population gains in the 1981-91 decade also occurred in several coastal and interior small towns and medium-sized urban centres outside of Lisboa and Porto. This reveals that urbanisation was not just a metropolitan phenomenon but was a widespread process. Note that when considering whether the Portuguese population is centralising or decentralising, attention must be paid to the scale of migration observed. So, for example, population may be moving into the metropolitan regions of Lisboa and Porto and therefore centralising, but within those regions the population may be shifting from city to suburbs and to outer parts of the city region, and therefore decentralising. This nested system of flows may be obscured if attention is focused exclusively on total net migration

Why did Swiss citizens refuse a comprehensive second-hand smoke ban?

The ill effects of second-hand smoke are now well documented. To protect the population from exposure to tobacco smoke, comprehensive smoking bans are necessary as expressed in the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and its guidelines. Switzerland has only a partial smoking ban full of exceptions which has been in effect since 2010, which reproduces the so-called Spanish model. In September 2012, the Swiss citizens refused a proposal for a more comprehensive ban. This case study examines the reasons behind this rejection and draws some lessons that can be learnt from it

Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: Sweden Case Study

This paper describes the structure of internal migration and population change in Sweden in recent decades, focussing on the years 1988 and 1998 to capture change in the last decade. Up to the 1970s and again in the early 1990s natural increase play an important role in regional population dynamics. In the late 1990s growing international migration, decreasing fertility and strong net internal migration into large cities increased the importance of migration at both national and local levels. In 1988 migration flows contributed to a pattern of relatively even deconcentration of population. Urban centres and surrounding communities experienced mixed patterns of growth. The pattern observed in 1998 was entirely different. It showed a strong movement up the urban hierarchy. Rural and remote areas, especially those in Norrland, depopulated. In 1998 migrants moved from low-density areas to high-density. High density areas had much higher population gains than low density over the 1988–1998 period. There is a difference in migration pattern between the north of the country, which mostly loses population and the central and southern parts, which mostly gain people. The pattern of migration of the Swedish population is, to large extent, related to the level of unemployment. Low unemployment areas attract migrants; high unemployment areas lose them. However, the level of unemployment cannot be considered in isolation, because the level of unemployment is correlated with the level of urbanisation and with type of regional economy. Areas with an educated population have a very strong attraction for migrants. A high level of education is indispensable for high level services, including tertiary education, and for high technology enterprises, which attract migrants. Young people migrate to metropolitan areas and university towns out of the other types of municipality. Medium sized municipalities attract families. Outflows from industrial regions and Inner Norrland municipalities are visible in all age groups. Metropolitan areas are gaining popularity among families. The elderly population migrates to university and medium size municipalities

Magneto-x-ray effects in transition-metal alloys

We present a theory that combines the relativistic spin-polarized version of the Koringa-Kohn-Rostoker coherent-potential approximation theory and the macroscopic theory of magneto-optical effects enabling us to calculate magneto-x-ray effects from first principles. The theory is illustrated by calculation of Faraday and Kerr rotations and ellipticities for transition-metal alloys

Building a quantum superposition of conscious states with integrated information theory

Could there be a quantum superposition of consciousness, as in the Wigner's friend thought experiment? The integrated information theory (IIT) of consciousness has turned this into a well-defined question. According to IIT, consciousness is a measurable physical quantity given by integrated information ($\Phi$), such that the amount of consciousness in a system corresponds to its amount of $\Phi$. We use the most recent IIT formalism (IIT4.0) to analyze the simplest non-zero $\Phi$ system known as a feedback dyad. We then propose a circuit that puts the dyad into a superposition of states which, according to IIT, would correspond to a superposition of conscious states. We refer to this as "Schr\"odinger's dyad". We therefore show that either IIT is false or the simple dyad is conscious and can easily be put into a superposition of conscious states. We then identify the simplest possible consciousness-collapse model, which predicts that this superposition is unstable and collapses at a rate determined by a measure of difference between the superposed conscious states. Our analysis will enable us to make a number of key observations about the general structure of integrated information theory (IIT2.0, IIT3.0, IIT4.0, and QIIT) and the general structure of consciousness-collapse models

Electronic structure and x-ray magnetic dichroism in random substitutional alloys of f-electron elements

The Koringa-Kohn-Rostoker —coherent-potential-approximation method combines multiple-scattering theory and the coherent-potential approximation to calculate the electronic structure of random substitutional alloys of transition metals. In this paper we describe the generalization of this theory to describe f-electron alloys. The theory is illustrated with a calculation of the electronic structure and magnetic dichroism curves for a random substitutional alloy containing rare-earth or actinide elements from first principles

Observation of magnetic circular dichroism in Fe L_{2,3} x-ray-fluorescence spectra

We report experiments demonstrating circular dichroism in the x-ray-fluorescence spectra of magnetic systems, as predicted by a recent theory. The data, on the L_{2,3} edges of ferromagnetic iron, are compared with fully relativistic local spin density functional calculations, and the relationship between the dichroic spectra and the spin-resolved local density of occupied states is discussed