A density-matching approach for optimization under uncertainty

Modern computers enable methods for design optimization that account for uncertainty in the system - so-called optimization under uncertainty (OUU). We propose a metric for OUU that measures the distance between a designer-specified probability density function of the system response (the target) and the system response's density function at a given design. We study an OUU formulation that minimizes this distance metric over all designs. We discretize the objective function with numerical quadrature, and we approximate the response density function with a Gaussian kernel density estimate. We offer heuristics for addressing issues that arise in this formulation, and we apply the approach to a CFD-based airfoil shape optimization problem. We qualitatively compare the density-matching approach to a multi-objective robust design optimization to gain insight into the method.This research was funded through a Dorothy Hodgkin Postgraduate Award, which is jointly sponsored by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) (UK) and Rolls-Royce plc. The first author would like to acknowledge the financial assistance provided by the Center for Turbulence Research at Stanford University and St. Edmund's College, Cambridge. The authors would like to thank Shahrokh Shahpar of Rolls-Royce plc for his advice on various aspects of this work. The authors also thank the reviewers for their suggestions and comments, which improved the overall quality of this manuscript. The second author's work is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science, Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research, Applied Mathematics program under Award Number DE-SC-0011077.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Elsevier via https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2016.03.00

Application of the k-epsilon-v(exp 2) model to multi-component airfoils

Flow computations around two-element and three-element configurations are presented and compared to detailed experimental measurements. The k-epsilon-v(exp 2)(bar) model has been applied and the ability of the model to capture streamline curvature effects, wake-boundary layer confluence, and laminar/turbulent transition is discussed. The numerical results are compared to experimental datasets that include mean quantities (velocity and pressure coefficient) and turbulent quantities (Reynolds normal and shear stresses)

Complex composite technology investigation: Simulations and experimental results

The paper deals with discussion of research activities within ITEMB (InTEgrated Full Composite Main landing gear Bay Concept) framework, an EU Clean Sky 2 program coordinated by Airbus. The driving motivation for the investigation on such a technology was found in the opportunity to design a main landing gear bay in a full composite configuration: Rational approaches have been implemented in an efficient testing stage providing the necessary database for the static qualification of the conceived design. Advanced and innovative solutions for a "more integrated" system were duly analysed and experimentally validated thus proving the overall device compliance with industrial standards and applicable airworthiness requirements

Manufacturing and Validation of a Novel Composite Component for Aircraft Main Landing Gear Bay

Composite materials may reduce the final weight of the aircraft structural components, in addition to improve fatigue performance and corrosion resistance. In order to achieve the optimization of air transport systems, making them increasingly sustainable, the structural design must be surely reviewed, starting to follow the ‘‘composite thinking’’ philosophy. The present research provides some relevant outcomes concerning the design of a composite sample for the main landing gear bay of a large commercial airplane (EASA CS25 category), within ITEMB (integrated full composite main landing gear bay concept) project, a program of Clean Sky 2 EU research framework. The most ambitious goal is to develop a new generation of lower center fuselage (LCF) with an innovative integrated landing system in the fuselage, which is considered the next frontier in the development of landing systems for medium-haul aircraft, such as the Airbus A320 aircraft family. The development of a different architecture, with the landing gear integrated within the related fuselage bay, could lead to a simplification of the whole subassembly with potential advantage in terms of construction and assembly times. Final target of the project is the manufacturing of an innovative monolithic composite structure that will replace the actual configuration (a mixed structure of metal and composite subassemblies) reducing or actually removing all the cost of assembly and increasing the production rate. This paper presents the main results of the work, introducing the main processing steps and prototype results; in the last part of the work, also some experimental tests on significant element are introduced as the first assessment of the technology readiness level that has been achieved

Earthquake Early Warning System for Structural Drift Prediction Using Machine Learning and Linear Regressors

In this work, we explored the feasibility of predicting the structural drift from the first seconds of P-wave signals for On-site Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) applications. To this purpose, we investigated the performance of both linear least square regression (LSR) and four non-linear machine learning (ML) models: Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machines and K-Nearest Neighbors. Furthermore, we also explore the applicability of the models calibrated for a region to another one. The LSR and ML models are calibrated and validated using a dataset of ∼6,000 waveforms recorded within 34 Japanese structures with three different type of construction (steel, reinforced concrete, and steel-reinforced concrete), and a smaller one of data recorded at US buildings (69 buildings, 240 waveforms). As EEW information, we considered three P-wave parameters (the peak displacement, Pd, the integral of squared velocity, IV2, and displacement, ID2) using three time-windows (i.e., 1, 2, and 3 s), for a total of nine features to predict the drift ratio as structural response. The Japanese dataset is used to calibrate the LSR and ML models and to study their capability to predict the structural drift. We explored different subsets of the Japanese dataset (i.e., one building, one single type of construction, the entire dataset. We found that the variability of both ground motion and buildings response can affect the drift predictions robustness. In particular, the predictions accuracy worsens with the complexity of the dataset in terms of building and event variability. Our results show that ML techniques perform always better than LSR models, likely due to the complex connections between features and the natural non-linearity of the data. Furthermore, we show that by implementing a residuals analysis, the main sources of drift variability can be identified. Finally, the models trained on the Japanese dataset are applied the US dataset. In our application, we found that the exporting EEW models worsen the prediction variability, but also that by including correction terms as function of the magnitude can strongly mitigate such problem. In other words, our results show that the drift for US buildings can be predicted by minor tweaks to models

Computed tomography findings of pneumatosis and portomesenteric venous gas in acute bowel ischemia.

BACKGROUND: To use more representative sample size to evaluate whether computed tomography (CT) scan evidence of the concomitant presence of pneumatosis and portomesenteric venous gas is a predictor of transmural bowel necrosis. METHODS: Data from 208 patients who were referred for a diagnosis of bowel ischemia were retrospectively reviewed. Only patients who underwent a surgical intervention following a diagnosis of bowel ischemia who also had a post-operative histological confirmation of such a diagnosis were included. Patients were split into two groups according to the presence of histological evidence of transmural bowel ischemia (case group) or partial bowel ischemia (control group). CT images were reviewed for findings of ischemia, including mural thickening, pneumatosis, bowel distension, portomesenteric venous gas and arterial or venous thrombi. RESULTS: A total of 248 subjects who underwent surgery for bowel ischemia were identified. Among the 208 subjects enrolled in our study, transmural bowel necrosis was identified in 121 subjects (case group), and partial bowel necrosis was identified in 87 subjects (control group). Based on CT findings, including mural thickening, bowel distension, pneumatosis, pneumatosis plus portomesenteric venous gas and presence of thrombi or emboli, there were no significant differences between the case and control groups. The concomitant presence of pneumatosis and porto-mesenteric venous gas showed an odds ratio of 1.95 (95%CI: 0.491-7.775, P = 0.342) for the presence of transmural necrosis. The presence of pneumatosis plus porto-mesenteric venous gas exhibited good specificity (83%) but low sensitivity (17%) in the identification of transmural bowel infarction. Accordingly, the positive and negative predictive values were 60% and 17%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Although pneumatosis plus porto-mesenteric venous gas is associated with bowel ischemia, we have demonstrated that their co-occurrence cannot be used as diagnostic signs of transmural necrosis

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase plays a crucial role in the protection from redox-stress induced apoptosis.

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase-deleted embryonic stem (ES) cells (G6pdD) proliferate in vitro without special requirements, but when challenged with oxidants fail to sustain glutathione disulphide reconversion to reduced glutathione (GSH), entering a condition of oxidative stress. Here, we investigate the signalling events downstream of GSH oxidation in G6pdD and wild-type (wt) ES cells. We found that G6pdD ES cells are very sensitive to oxidants, activating an apoptotic pathway at oxidant concentrations otherwise sublethal for wt ES cells. We show that the apoptotic pathway activated by low oxidant concentrations is accompanied by mitochondria dysfunction, and it is therefore blocked by the overexpression of Bcl-XL. Bcl-XL does not inhibit the decrease in cellular GSH and reactive oxygen species formation following oxidant treatment. We also found that oxidant treatment in ES cells is followed by the activation of the MEK/ extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway. Interest¬ingly, ERK activation has opposite outcomes in G6pdD ES cells compared to wt, which has a proapoptotic function in the first and a prosurvival function in the latter. We show that this phenomenon can be regulated by the cellular GSH level

Emergency Department as an epidemiological observatory of Human Mobility: the experience of the Moroccan population

We conducted a retrospective study of the accesses to the Emergency Department registered from January 2000 to December 2014 in 5 major hospitals in the Metropolitan Area of Rome. We extrapolated data relating to patients of Moroccan origin from about 5 million total accesses, so we compared with Italians data which, in the same period, came to ED. The Moroccan population is distinguished by a larger number of diagnoses belonging to the ICD-9 code of Infectious Diseases and, more precisely, to Respiratory Infectious Diseases. There are also no differences in the assignment of such diagnoses to Moroccans with Italian citizenship, and this led to think that this could play an important role in the use of the ED and moreover that enrollment to the National Health Service may reduce its inappropriate use. Regarding to Degenerative Disorders, the result of our analysis is quite emblematic, showing that the accesses to the ED is due to Cardiovascular Diseases: 6.33% of Italians' accesses against 1.81% of Moroccans and 2.36% of Moroccans with Italian citizenship. The main explanation for this difference is, obviously, due to the age of the population: about 60% of Moroccans who accessed to ED was less than 40 years old. It is interesting how, in the field of ​​Cardiovascular Diseases, Moroccans have a lower percentage of diagnosis compared to Italians for acute diseases and a greater percentage of diagnoses for chronic diseases, suggesting once again that accesses to ED for migrants often is due to the inability to use the general services of the National Health Service. In conclusion, from the point of view of the Emergency Department, Migration Medicine still has Infectious Diseases as the main reason for access. Degenerative Disorders remain a prerogative of the Italians, but we could certainly assume that the Moroccan population would develop at some point with the aging