Assessing the probability of patients reoffending after discharge from low to medium secure forensic mental health services: An inductive prevention paradox

Citizens of developed societies are troubled by those who commit ‘irrational' crimes against the person. Reoffending by ex-patients following their release from secure mental health services triggers particularly intense angst when amplified by media and political scrutiny. Forensic mental health service providers are expected to minimise the occurrence of such transgressions by releasing only those patients who are judged acceptably unlikely to reoffend. However, reoffending probabilities can only be estimated by observing behaviour in secure institutional settings designed specifically to prevent patients from transgressing. The article explores this ‘inductive prevention paradox' which arises when the implementation of measures designed to avoid an adverse event obscures direct observation of what might have happened if prophylaxis had not been attempted. The analysis presented draws on data obtained in 1999–2003 from two qualitative studies in medium to low secure UK institutions, one providing forensic mental health services and the other forensic learning disability services. We explored the views of 56 staff members and 21 patients about risk management in forensic services and undertook additional 25 staff interviews for case studies of the 21 patients. The wider applicability of the inductive prevention paradox will be considered in the Discussion. We argue that the prognostic limitations arising from prevention have been underestimated by policy makers and in official inquiries; and that the prevailing personal risk assessment framework needs to be complemented by greater attention to the environments which patients will be discharged into

On a scale of one to five, how satisfied are you with the forensic mental health care services you received?

This book chapter is the latest of several outputs from a Department of Health funded project (£43,000) begun in 2006. At this year’s prestigious annual BSA conference (April 2011), we (Godin & Davies) will present ‘An exercise in emancipatory research’ in a symposium of mental health research. We have been invited to present our work from this project at the BSA London Medical Sociology Group. In May 2011 we will present ‘Developing a cultural understanding of inpatient risk management’. In December 2010 we presented the study at a seminar in Huddersfield University by invitation from the professor of health care risk management

A Tool for Custom Construction of QMC and RQMC Point Sets

We present LatNet Builder, a software tool to find good parameters for lattice rules, polynomial lattice rules, and digital nets in base 2, for quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) sampling over the s-dimensional unit hypercube. The selection criteria are figures of merit that give different weights to different subsets of coordinates. They are upper bounds on the worst-case error (for QMC) or variance (for RQMC) for integrands rescaled to have a norm of at most one in certain Hilbert spaces of functions. We summarize what are the various Hilbert spaces, discrepancies, types of weights, figures of merit, types of constructions, and search methods supported by LatNet Builder. We briefly discuss its organization and we provide simple illustrations of what it can do.NSERC Discovery Grant, IVADO Grant, Corps des Mines Stipend, ERDF, ESF, EXP. 2019/0043

Distributed Formal Concept Analysis Algorithms Based on an Iterative MapReduce Framework

While many existing formal concept analysis algorithms are efficient, they are typically unsuitable for distributed implementation. Taking the MapReduce (MR) framework as our inspiration we introduce a distributed approach for performing formal concept mining. Our method has its novelty in that we use a light-weight MapReduce runtime called Twister which is better suited to iterative algorithms than recent distributed approaches. First, we describe the theoretical foundations underpinning our distributed formal concept analysis approach. Second, we provide a representative exemplar of how a classic centralized algorithm can be implemented in a distributed fashion using our methodology: we modify Ganter's classic algorithm by introducing a family of MR* algorithms, namely MRGanter and MRGanter+ where the prefix denotes the algorithm's lineage. To evaluate the factors that impact distributed algorithm performance, we compare our MR* algorithms with the state-of-the-art. Experiments conducted on real datasets demonstrate that MRGanter+ is efficient, scalable and an appealing algorithm for distributed problems.Comment: 17 pages, ICFCA 201, Formal Concept Analysis 201

Systemic analysis of production scenarios for bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass [abstract]

Defining alternatives for non-renewable energy sources constitutes a priority to the development of our societies. One of these alternatives is biofuels production starting from energy crops, agricultural wastes, forest products or wastes. In this context, a "second generation" biofuels production, aiming at utilizing the whole plant, including ligno-cellulosic (hemicelluloses, cellulose, lignin) fractions (Ogier et al., 1999) that are not used for human food, would allow the reduction of the drawbacks of bioethanol production (Schoeling, 2007). However, numerous technical, economical, ethical and environmental questions are still pending. One of the aims of the BioEtha2 project, directed by the Walloon Agricultural Research Centre, is to define the position of bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass among the different renewable energy alternatives that could be developed in Wallonia towards 2020. With this aim, and in order to answer the numerous questions in this field, the project aims at using tools and methods coming from the concept of "forecasting scenarios" (Sebillotte, 2002; Slegten et al., 2007; For-learn, 2008). This concept, based on a contemporary reality, aims to explore different possible scenarios for the future development of alternative sources of energy production. The principle is to evaluate, explore, possible futures of the studied problematic, through the establishment of possible evolution trajectories. We contribute to this prospective through a systemic approach (Vanloqueren, 2007) that allows lightening the existing interactions within the system "ligno-cellulosic biomass chain" without isolating it from its environment. We explain and sketch the two contexts needed to identify primary stakes. The global context includes inter-dependant and auto-regulating fields such as society, politics, technology and economy. These four fields influence each part of the "chain" with specific tools. However, the interest and possible action fields lay within the intermediary context representing the "resources" such as agriculture, forestry, "driving" elements such as mobility, mediation elements such as territories and environment and concurrent elements such as non-cellulosic biomass, the energy mix and the non-energy valorization

Evolution of a physical and biological front from upwelling to relaxation

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Continental Shelf Research 108 (2015): 55-64, doi:10.1016/j.csr.2015.08.005.Fronts influence the structure and function of coastal marine ecosystems. Due to the complexity and dynamic nature of coastal environments and the small scales of frontal gradient zones, frontal research is difficult. To advance this challenging research we developed a method enabling an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) to detect and track fronts, thereby providing high-resolution observations in the moving reference frame of the front itself. This novel method was applied to studying the evolution of a frontal zone in the coastal upwelling environment of Monterey Bay, California, through a period of variability in upwelling intensity. Through 23 frontal crossings in four days, the AUV detected the front using real-time analysis of vertical thermal stratification to identify water types and the front between them, and the vehicle tracked the front as it moved more than 10 km offshore. The physical front coincided with a biological front between strongly stratified phytoplankton-enriched water inshore of the front, and weakly stratified phytoplankton-poor water offshore of the front. While stratification remained a consistent identifier, conditions on both sides of the front changed rapidly as regional circulation responded to relaxation of upwelling winds. The offshore water type transitioned from relatively cold and saline upwelled water to relatively warm and fresh coastal transition zone water. The inshore water type exhibited an order of magnitude increase in chlorophyll concentrations and an associated increase in oxygen and decrease in nitrate. It also warmed and freshened near the front, consistent with the cross-frontal exchange that was detected in the high-resolution AUV data. AUV-observed cross-frontal exchanges beneath the surface manifestation of the front emphasize the importance of AUV synoptic water column surveys in the frontal zone.This work was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation

Electrostatic Patch Effect in Cylindrical Geometry. I. Potential and Energy between Slightly Non-Coaxial Cylinders

We study the effect of any uneven voltage distribution on two close cylindrical conductors with parallel axes that are slightly shifted in the radial and by any length in the axial direction. The investigation is especially motivated by certain precision measurements, such as the Satellite Test of the Equivalence Principle (STEP). By energy conservation, the force can be found as the energy gradient in the vector of the shift, which requires determining potential distribution and energy in the gap. The boundary value problem for the potential is solved, and energy is thus found to the second order in the small transverse shift, and to lowest order in the gap to cylinder radius ratio. The energy consists of three parts: the usual capacitor part due to the uniform potential difference, the one coming from the interaction between the voltage patches and the uniform voltage difference, and the energy of patch interaction, entirely independent of the uniform voltage. Patch effect forces and torques in the cylindrical configuration are derived and analyzed in the next two parts of this work.Comment: 26 pages, 1 Figure. Submitted to Classical and Quantum Gravit

Influence of topography on tide propagation and amplification in semi-enclosed basins

An idealized model for tide propagation and amplification in semi-enclosed rectangular basins is presented, accounting for depth differences by a combination of longitudinal and lateral topographic steps. The basin geometry is formed by several adjacent compartments of identical width, each having either a uniform depth or two depths separated by a transverse topographic step. The problem is forced by an incoming Kelvin wave at the open end, while allowing waves to radiate outward. The solution in each compartment is written as the superposition of (semi)-analytical wave solutions in an infinite channel, individually satisfying the depth-averaged linear shallow water equations on the f plane, including bottom friction. A collocation technique is employed to satisfy continuity of elevation and flux across the longitudinal topographic steps between the compartments. The model results show that the tidal wave in shallow parts displays slower propagation, enhanced dissipation and amplified amplitudes. This reveals a resonance mechanism, occurring when\ud the length of the shallow end is roughly an odd multiple of the quarter Kelvin wavelength. Alternatively, for sufficiently wide basins, also Poincaré waves may become resonant. A transverse step implies different wavelengths of the incoming and reflected Kelvin wave, leading to increased amplitudes in shallow regions and a shift of amphidromic points in the direction of the deeper part. Including the shallow parts near the basin’s closed end (thus capturing the Kelvin resonance mechanism) is essential to reproduce semi-diurnal and diurnal\ud tide observations in the Gulf of California, the Adriatic Sea and the Persian Gulf

An Incremental Learning Method to Support the Annotation of Workflows with Data-to-Data Relations

Workflow formalisations are often focused on the representation of a process with the primary objective to support execution. However, there are scenarios where what needs to be represented is the effect of the process on the data artefacts involved, for example when reasoning over the corresponding data policies. This can be achieved by annotating the workflow with the semantic relations that occur between these data artefacts. However, manually producing such annotations is difficult and time consuming. In this paper we introduce a method based on recommendations to support users in this task. Our approach is centred on an incremental rule association mining technique that allows to compensate the cold start problem due to the lack of a training set of annotated workflows. We discuss the implementation of a tool relying on this approach and how its application on an existing repository of workflows effectively enable the generation of such annotations