The Use of Historical Data in Rule-Based Modelling for Scenarios to Improve Resilience within the Building Stock

Digital documentation has become integral to the preservation, analysis and communication of historical sites. New platforms are now being developed that involve complex 3D models and allow the analysis of spatial data. These include procedural modelling, a technique that enables the rapid development of ‘dynamic’ 3D environments, and generation of simulations for entire cities, resulting in low cost, high resolution 3D city models. Though procedural modelling has been used in the context of archaeology to ‘recreate’ cities at specific historic time points, the use of historical data in the development of rule-based procedural models for current cities has been little explored. Here, we test the extent to which construction age data, historical building regulations and architectural knowledge can be used in the generation of procedural rules, and the level of detail and potential impact that these models may have. Rather than creating an accurate representation of the city, we instead seek to simulate the way in which urban areas are likely to behave under certain conditions, in order to test what-if? planning scenarios. This allows us to explore more flexible ways of digitally ‘creating’ cities, past and present, and to gain insights into underlying ‘rules’ that govern their physical form

Ten Years of Solar Change as Monitored by SBUV and SBUV/2

Observations of the Sun by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus 7 and the SBUV/2 instrument aboard NOAA-9 reveal variations in the solar irradiance from 1978, to 1988. The maximum to minimum solar change estimated from the Heath and Schlesinger Mg index and wavelength scaling factors is about 4 percent from 210 to 260 nm and 8 percent for 180 to 210 nm; direct measurements of the solar change give values of 1 to 3 percent and 5 to 7 percent, respectively, for the same wavelength range. Solar irradiances were high from the start of observations, late in 1978, until 1983, declined until early 1985, remained approximately constant until mid-1987, and then began to rise. Peak-to-peak 27-day rotational modulation amplitudes were as large as 6 percent at solar maximum and 1 to 2 percent at solar minimum. During occasional intervals of the 1979 to 1983 maximum and again during 1988, the dominant rotational modulation period was 13.5 days. Measurements near 200 to 205 nm show the same rotational modulation behavior but cannot be used to track long-term changes in the Sun because of uncertainties in the characterization of long-term instrument sensitivity changes

Gene-history correlation and population structure

Correlation of gene histories in the human genome determines the patterns of genetic variation (haplotype structure) and is crucial to understanding genetic factors in common diseases. We derive closed analytical expressions for the correlation of gene histories in established demographic models for genetic evolution and show how to extend the analysis to more realistic (but more complicated) models of demographic structure. We identify two contributions to the correlation of gene histories in divergent populations: linkage disequilibrium, and differences in the demographic history of individuals in the sample. These two factors contribute to correlations at different length scales: the former at small, and the latter at large scales. We show that recent mixing events in divergent populations limit the range of correlations and compare our findings to empirical results on the correlation of gene histories in the human genome.Comment: Revised and extended version: 26 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

The Time Machine: A Simulation Approach for Stochastic Trees

In the following paper we consider a simulation technique for stochastic trees. One of the most important areas in computational genetics is the calculation and subsequent maximization of the likelihood function associated to such models. This typically consists of using importance sampling (IS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques. The approach proceeds by simulating the tree, backward in time from observed data, to a most recent common ancestor (MRCA). However, in many cases, the computational time and variance of estimators are often too high to make standard approaches useful. In this paper we propose to stop the simulation, subsequently yielding biased estimates of the likelihood surface. The bias is investigated from a theoretical point of view. Results from simulation studies are also given to investigate the balance between loss of accuracy, saving in computing time and variance reduction.Comment: 22 Pages, 5 Figure

The Anderson prescription for surfaces and impurities

We test the Anderson prescription [1], a BCS formalism for describing superconductivity in inhomogeneous systems, and compare results with those obtained from the Bogoliubov-de Gennes formalism, using the attractive Hubbard model with surfaces and nonmagnetic impurities. The Anderson approach captures the essential features of the spatial variation of the gap parameter and electron density around a surface or an impurity over a wide range of parameters. It breaks down, however, in the strong-coupling regime for a weak impurity potential. [1] P. W. Anderson, J. Phys. Chem. Solids 11, 26 (1959).Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Extremality of Gaussian quantum states

We investigate Gaussian quantum states in view of their exceptional role within the space of all continuous variables states. A general method for deriving extremality results is provided and applied to entanglement measures, secret key distillation and the classical capacity of Bosonic quantum channels. We prove that for every given covariance matrix the distillable secret key rate and the entanglement, if measured appropriately, are minimized by Gaussian states. This result leads to a clearer picture of the validity of frequently made Gaussian approximations. Moreover, it implies that Gaussian encodings are optimal for the transmission of classical information through Bosonic channels, if the capacity is additive.Comment: 4 page

First limits on the 3-200 keV X-ray spectrum of the quiet Sun using RHESSI

We present the first results using the Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager, RHESSI, to observe solar X-ray emission not associated with active regions, sunspots or flares (the quiet Sun). Using a newly developed chopping technique (fan-beam modulation) during seven periods of offpointing between June 2005 to October 2006, we obtained upper limits over 3-200 keV for the quietest times when the GOES12 1-8A flux fell below $10^{-8}$ Wm$^{-2}$. These values are smaller than previous limits in the 17-120 keV range and extend them to both lower and higher energies. The limit in 3-6 keV is consistent with a coronal temperature $\leq 6$ MK. For quiet Sun periods when the GOES12 1-8A background flux was between $10^{-8}$ Wm$^{-2}$ and $10^{-7}$ Wm$^{-2}$, the RHESSI 3-6 keV flux correlates to this as a power-law, with an index of $1.08 \pm 0.13$. The power-law correlation for microflares has a steeper index of $1.29 \pm 0.06$. We also discuss the possibility of observing quiet Sun X-rays due to solar axions and use the RHESSI quiet Sun limits to estimate the axion-to-photon coupling constant for two different axion emission scenarios.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, Accepted by ApJ letter

Nonlinearity and stochasticity in the density--velocity relation

We present results of the investigations of the statistical properties of a joint density and velocity divergence probability distribution function (PDF) in the mildly non-linear regime. For that purpose we use both perturbation theory results, extended here for a top-hat filter, and numerical simulations. In particular we derive the quantitative (complete as possible up to third order terms) and qualitative predictions for constrained averages and constrained dispersions -- which describe the nonlinearities and the stochasticity properties beyond the linear regime -- and compare them against numerical simulations. We find overall a good agreement for constrained averages; however, the agreement for constrained dispersions is only qualitative. Scaling relations for the Omega-dependence of these quantities are satisfactory reproduced. Guided by our analytical and numerical results, we finally construct a robust phenomenological description of the joint PDF in a closed analytic form. The good agreement of our formula with results of N-body simulations for a number of cosmological parameters provides a sound validation of the presented approach. Our results provide a basis for a potentially powerful tool with which it is possible to analyze galaxy survey data in order to test the gravitational instability paradigm beyond the linear regime and put useful constraints on cosmological parameters. In particular we show how the nonlinearity in the density--velocity relation can be used to break the so-called Omega-bias degeneracy in cosmic density-velocity comparisons.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures; revised version with minor changes in the presentation, accepted for publication in MNRA