Including Systematic Uncertainties in Confidence Interval Construction for Poisson Statistics

One way to incorporate systematic uncertainties into the calculation of confidence intervals is by integrating over probability density functions parametrizing the uncertainties. In this note we present a development of this method which takes into account uncertainties in the prediction of background processes, uncertainties in the signal detection efficiency and background efficiency and allows for a correlation between the signal and background detection efficiencies. We implement this method with the Feldman & Cousins unified approach with and without conditioning. We present studies of coverage for the Feldman & Cousins and Neyman ordering schemes. In particular, we present two different types of coverage tests for the case where systematic uncertainties are included. To illustrate the method we show the relative effect of including systematic uncertainties the case of dark matter search as performed by modern neutrino tel escopes.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures, replaced to match published versio

The N Enrichment and Supernova Ejection of the Runaway Microquasar LS 5039

We present an investigation of new optical and ultraviolet spectra of the mass donor star in the massive X-ray binary LS 5039. The optical band spectral line strengths indicate that the atmosphere is N-rich and C-poor, and we classify the stellar spectrum as type ON6.5 V((f)). The N-strong and C-weak pattern is also found in the stellar wind P Cygni lines of N V 1240 and C IV 1550. We suggest that the N-enrichment may result from internal mixing if the O-star was born as a rapid rotator, or the O-star may have accreted N-rich gas prior to a common-envelope interaction with the progenitor of the supernova. We re-evaluated the orbital elements to find an orbital period of P=4.4267 +/- 0.0010 d. We compared the spectral line profiles with new non-LTE, line-blanketed model spectra, from which we derive an effective temperature T_eff = 37.5 +/- 1.7 kK, gravity log g = 4.0 +/- 0.1, and projected rotational velocity V sin i = 140 +/- 8 km/s. We fit the UV, optical, and IR flux distribution using a model spectrum and extinction law with parameters E(B-V)= 1.28 +/- 0.02 and R= 3.18 +/- 0.07. We confirm the co-variability of the observed X-ray flux and stellar wind mass loss rate derived from the H-alpha profile, which supports the wind accretion scenario for the X-ray production in LS 5039. Wind accretion models indicate that the compact companion has a mass M_X/M_sun = 1.4 +/- 0.4, consistent with its identification as a neutron star. The observed eccentricity and runaway velocity of the binary can only be reconciled if the neutron star received a modest kick velocity due to a slight asymmetry in the supernova explosion (during which >5 solar masses was ejected).Comment: 38 pages, 9 figures; 2004, ApJ, 600, Jan. 10 issue, in press Discussion revised thanks to comments from P. Podsiadlowsk

The outsourcing of social care in Britain : what does it mean for voluntary sector workers?

While recent decades have witnessed a growth in the outsourcing of public services in Britain, the post-1997 UK Labour governments have sought to put in place mechanisms aimed at encouraging long-term collaborative contracting relationships marked by less reliance on cost-based competition. This article explores empirically how far these mechanisms have achieved their aims and thereby acted to protect the employment conditions of staff, and links this exploration to debates concerning the employment implications of organizational reforms within public sectors internationally. It concludes that in terms of bringing income security to the voluntary sector and stability to employment terms and conditions these efforts have been unsuccessful, and consequently casts doubts on more optimistic interpretations of the employment effects of organizational restructuring in the British public sector

Spectroscopy and Time Variability of Absorption Lines in the Direction of the Vela Supernova Remnant

We present high resolution (R~75,000), high signal-to-noise (S/N~100) Ca II $\lambda$3933.663 and Na I $\lambda\lambda$5889.951, 5895.924 spectra of 68 stars in the direction of the Vela supernova remnant. The spectra comprise the most complete high resolution, high S/N, optical survey of early type stars in this region of the sky. A subset of the sight lines has been observed at multiple epochs, 1993/1994 and 1996. Of the thirteen stars observed twice, seven have spectra revealing changes in the equivalent width and/or velocity structure of lines, most of which arise from remnant gas. Such time variability has been reported previously for the sight lines towards HD 72089 and HD 72997 by Danks & Sembach (1995) and for HD 72127 by Hobbs et al. (1991). We have confirmed the ongoing time variability of these spectra and present new evidence of variability in the spectra of HD 73658, HD 74455, HD 75309 and HD 75821. We have tabulated Na I and Ca II absorption line information for the sight lines in our sample to serve as a benchmark for further investigations of the dynamics and evolution of the Vela SNR.Comment: 8 pages of text, 4 tables, 16 pages of figures Accepted and to be published in ApJ

Inference for bounded parameters

The estimation of signal frequency count in the presence of background noise has had much discussion in the recent physics literature, and Mandelkern [1] brings the central issues to the statistical community, leading in turn to extensive discussion by statisticians. The primary focus however in [1] and the accompanying discussion is on the construction of a confidence interval. We argue that the likelihood function and $p$-value function provide a comprehensive presentation of the information available from the model and the data. This is illustrated for Gaussian and Poisson models with lower bounds for the mean parameter

FUSE Measurements of Far Ultraviolet Extinction. I. Galactic Sight Lines

We present extinction curves that include data down to far ultraviolet wavelengths (FUV; 1050 - 1200 A) for nine Galactic sight lines. The FUV extinction was measured using data from the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer. The sight lines were chosen for their unusual extinction properties in the infrared through the ultraviolet; that they probe a wide range of dust environments is evidenced by the large spread in their measured ratios of total-to-selective extinction, R_V = 2.43 - 3.81. We find that extrapolation of the Fitzpatrick & Massa relationship from the ultraviolet appears to be a good predictor of the FUV extinction behavior. We find that predictions of the FUV extinction based upon the Cardelli, Clayton & Mathis (CCM) dependence on R_V give mixed results. For the seven extinction curves well represented by CCM in the infrared through ultraviolet, the FUV extinction is well predicted in three sight lines, over-predicted in two sight lines, and under-predicted in 2 sight lines. A Maximum Entropy Method analysis using a simple three component grain model shows that seven of the nine sight lines in the study require a larger fraction of grain materials to be in dust when FUV extinction is included in the models. Most of the added grain material is in the form of small (radii < 200 A) grains.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. 31 pages with 7 figure

A log analysis study of 10 years of ebook consumption in academic library collections

Even though libraries have been offering eBooks for more than a decade, very little is known about eBook access and consumption in academic library collections. This paper addresses this gap with a log analysis study of eBook access at the library of the University of Waikato. This in-depth analysis covers a period spanning 10 years of eBook use at this university. We draw conclusions about the use of eBooks at this institution and compare the results with other published studies of eBook usage at tertiary institutes

Prevalence of and associations with agitation in residents with dementia living in care homes: MARQUE cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Agitation is reportedly the most common neuropsychiatric symptom in care home residents with dementia. AIMS: To report, in a large care home survey, prevalence and determinants of agitation in residents with dementia. METHOD: We interviewed staff from 86 care homes between 13 January 2014 and 12 November 2015 about residents with dementia with respect to agitation (Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI)), quality of life (DEMQOL-proxy) and dementia severity (Clinical Dementia Rating). We also interviewed residents and their relatives. We used random effects models adjusted for resident age, gender, dementia severity and care home type with CMAI as a continuous score. RESULTS: Out of 3053 (86.2%) residents who had dementia, 1489 (52.7%) eligible residents participated. Fifteen per cent of residents with very mild dementia had clinically significant agitation compared with 33% with mild (odds ratios (ORs)=4.49 95% confidence interval (CI)=2.30) and 45% with moderate or severe dementia (OR=6.95 95% CI=3.63, 13.31 and OR=6.23 95% CI=3.25, 11.94, respectively). More agitation was associated with lower quality of life (regression coefficient (rc)=-0.53; 95% CI=-0.61, -0.46) but not with staffing or resident ratio (rc=0.03; 95% CI=-0.04, 0.11), level of residents' engagement in home activities (rc=3.21; 95% CI=-0.82, 7.21) or family visit numbers (rc=-0.03; 95% CI=-0.15, 0.08). It was correlated with antipsychotic use (rc=6.45; 95% CI=3.98, 8.91). CONCLUSIONS: Care home residents with dementia and agitation have lower quality of life. More staffing time and activities as currently provided are not associated with lower agitation levels. New approaches to develop staff skills in understanding and responding to the underlying reasons for individual resident's agitation require development and testing. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: None. COPYRIGHT AND USAGE: © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Non-Commercial, No Derivatives (CC BY-NC-ND) license