Comparative Recruitment Dynamics of Alewife and Bloater in Lakes Michigan and Huron

The predictive power of recruitment models often relies on the identification and quantification of external variables, in addition to stock size. In theory, the identification of climatic, biotic, or demographic influences on reproductive success assists fisheries management by identifying factors that have a direct and reproducible influence on the population dynamics of a target species. More often, models are constructed as one‐time studies of a single population whose results are not revisited when further data become available. Here, we present results from stock recruitment models for Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Bloater Coregonus hoyi in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The factors that explain variation in Bloater recruitment were remarkably consistent across populations and with previous studies that found Bloater recruitment to be linked to population demographic patterns in Lake Michigan. Conversely, our models were poor predictors of Alewife recruitment in Lake Huron but did show some agreement with previously published models from Lake Michigan. Overall, our results suggest that external predictors of fish recruitment are difficult to discern using traditional fisheries models, and reproducing the results from previous studies may be difficult particularly at low population sizes.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141414/1/tafs0294.pd

Reliability of Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis for Estimating Whole‐Fish Energy Density and Percent Lipids

We evaluated bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) as a nonlethal means of predicting energy density and percent lipids for three fish species: Yellow perch Perca flavescens, walleye Sander vitreus, and lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis. Although models that combined BIA measures with fish wet mass provided strong predictions of total energy, total lipids, and total dry mass for whole fish, including BIA provided only slightly better predictions than using fish mass alone. Regression models that used BIA measures to directly predict the energy density or percent lipids of whole fish were generally better than those using body mass alone (based on Akaike’s information criterion). However, the goodness of fit of models that used BIA measures varied widely across species and at best explained only slightly more than one‐half the variation observed in fish energy density or percent lipids. Models that combined BIA measures with body mass for prediction had the strongest correlations between predicted and observed energy density or percent lipids for a validation group of fish, but there were significant biases in these predictions. For example, the models underestimated energy density and percent lipids for lipid‐rich fish and overestimated energy density and percent lipids for lipid‐poor fish. A comparison of observed versus predicted whole‐fish energy densities and percent lipids demonstrated that models that incorporated BIA measures had lower maximum percent error than models without BIA measures in them, although the errors for the BIA models were still generally high (energy density: 15‐18%; percent lipids: 82‐89%). Considerable work is still required before BIA can provide reliable predictions of whole‐fish energy density and percent lipids, including understanding how temperature, electrode placement, and the variation in lipid distribution within a fish affect BIA measures.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141722/1/tafs1519.pd

Effects of climate and land-use changes on fish catches across lakes at a global scale

Globally, our knowledge on lake fisheries is still limited despite their importance to food security and livelihoods. Here we show that fish catches can respond either positively or negatively to climate and land-use changes, by analyzing time-series data (1970–2014) for 31 lakes across five continents. We find that effects of a climate or land-use driver (e.g., air temperature) on lake environment could be relatively consistent in directions, but consequential changes in a lake-environmental factor (e.g., water temperature) could result in either increases or decreases in fish catch in a given lake. A subsequent correlation analysis indicates that reductions in fish catch was less likely to occur in response to potential climate and land-use changes if a lake is located in a region with greater access to clean water. This finding suggests that adequate investments for water-quality protection and water-use efficiency can provide additional benefits to lake fisheries and food security

Global lake responses to climate change

Climate change is one of the most severe threats to global lake ecosystems. Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation and water level, respond dramatically to this threat, as observed in recent decades. In this Review, we discuss physical lake variables and their responses to climate change. Decreases in winter ice cover and increases in lake surface temperature modify lake mixing regimes and accelerate lake evaporation. Where not balanced by increased mean precipitation or inflow, higher evaporation rates will favour a decrease in lake level and surface water extent. Together with increases in extreme-precipitation events, these lake responses will impact lake ecosystems, changing water quantity and quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and transportation. Future research opportunities, including enhanced observation of lake variables from space (particularly for small water bodies), improved in situ lake monitoring and the development of advanced modelling techniques to predict lake processes, will improve our global understanding of lake responses to a changing climate

Political Freedom, External Liberalization and Financial Stability

The chance of financial crises has grown in emerging economies in recent decades. Increasingly, the interest has shifted away from market-based reforms, such as more transparency, towards potentially stabilizing institutions. Among these institutions are better political freedoms, as they could help to foster stronger and more stable domestic demand growth. Using data from the IMF and Freedom House, we test the effectiveness of political freedoms, in particular of civil liberties and political rights, in reducing the chance of banking and currency crises. Our results show that more civil liberties, which are closely linked to worker rights, lower the chance of banking and currency crises, while political rights have no effect on the chance of financial crises. Also, this effect disappears in more open economies, likely due to increased capital mobility.Banking crisis, currency crisis, labor standards, emerging economies,