Travel time stability in weakly range-dependent sound channels

Travel time stability is investigated in environments consisting of a range-independent background sound-speed profile on which a highly structured range-dependent perturbation is superimposed. The stability of both unconstrained and constrained (eigenray) travel times are considered. Both general theoretical arguments and analytical estimates of time spreads suggest that travel time stability is largely controlled by a property $\omega ^{\prime}$ of the background sound speed profile. Here, $2\pi/\omega (I)$ is the range of a ray double loop and $I$ is the ray action variable. Numerical results for both volume scattering by internal waves in deep ocean environments and rough surface scattering in upward refracting environments are shown to confirm the expectation that travel time stability is largely controlled by $\omega ^{\prime}$.Comment: Submitted to J. Acoust. Soc. Am., 30 June 200

Lagrangian dynamical geography of the Gulf of Mexico

We construct a Markov-chain representation of the surface-ocean Lagrangian dynamics in a region occupied by the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and adjacent portions of the Caribbean Sea and North Atlantic using satellite-tracked drifter trajectory data, the largest collection so far considered. From the analysis of the eigenvectors of the transition matrix associated with the chain, we identify almost-invariant attracting sets and their basins of attraction. With this information we decompose the GoM's geography into weakly dynamically interacting provinces, which constrain the connectivity between distant locations within the GoM. Offshore oil exploration, oil spill contingency planning, and fish larval connectivity assessment are among the many activities that can benefit from the dynamical information carried in the geography constructed here.Comment: Submitted to Scientific Report

Ray stability in weakly range-dependent sound channels

Ray stability is investigated in environments consisting of a range-independent background sound-speed profile on which a range-dependent perturbation, such as that produced by internal waves in deep ocean environments, is superimposed. Numerical results show that ray stability is strongly influenced by the background sound speed profile. Ray instability is shown to increase with increasing magnitude of alpha := I omega^{prime} / omega, where 2 pi / omega(I) is the range of a ray double loop and I is the ray action variable. The mechanism, shear-induced instability enhancement, by which alpha controls ray instability is described.Comment: To appear in JAS

Enduring Lagrangian coherence of a Loop Current ring assessed using independent observations

Ocean flows are routinely inferred from low-resolution satellite altimetry measurements of sea surface height assuming a geostrophic balance. Recent nonlinear dynamical systems techniques have revealed that surface currents derived from altimetry can support mesoscale eddies with material boundaries that do not filament for many months, thereby representing effective transport mechanisms. However, the long-range Lagrangian coherence assessed for mesoscale eddy boundaries detected from altimetry is constrained by the impossibility of current altimeters to resolve ageostrophic submesoscale motions. These may act to prevent Lagrangian coherence from manifesting in the rigorous form described by the nonlinear dynamical systems theories. Here we use a combination of satellite ocean color and surface drifter trajectory data, rarely available simultaneously over an extended period of time, to provide observational evidence for the enduring Lagrangian coherence of a Loop Current ring detected from altimetry. We also seek indications of this behavior in the flow produced by a data-assimilative system which demonstrated ability to reproduce observed relative dispersion statistics down into the marginally submesoscale range. However, the simulated flow, total surface and subsurface or subsampled emulating altimetry, is not found to support the long-lasting Lagrangian coherence that characterizes the observed ring. This highlights the importance of the Lagrangian metrics produced by the nonlinear dynamical systems tools employed here in assessing model performance.Comment: In press in nature.com/Scientific Report

Transition paths of marine debris and the stability of the garbage patches

We used transition path theory (TPT) to infer "reactive" pathways of floating marine debris trajectories. The TPT analysis was applied on a pollution-aware time-homogeneous Markov chain model constructed from trajectories produced by satellite-tracked undrogued buoys from the NOAA Global Drifter Program. The latter involved coping with the openness of the system in physical space, which further required an adaptation of the standard TPT setting. Directly connecting pollution sources along coastlines with garbage patches of varied strengths, the unveiled reactive pollution routes represent alternative targets for ocean cleanup efforts. Among our specific findings we highlight: constraining a highly probable pollution source for the Great Pacific Garbage Patch; characterizing the weakness of the Indian Ocean gyre as a trap for plastic waste; and unveiling a tendency of the subtropical gyres to export garbage toward the coastlines rather than to other gyres in the event of anomalously intense winds.Comment: Submitted to Chao

Building a Maxey--Riley framework for surface ocean inertial particle dynamics

A framework for the study of surface ocean inertial particle motion is built from the Maxey--Riley set. A new set is obtained by vertically averaging each term of the original set, adapted to account for Earth's rotation effects, across the extent of a sufficiently small spherical particle that floats at an assumed unperturbed air--sea interface with unsteady nonuniform winds and ocean currents above and below, respectively. The inertial particle velocity is shown to exponentially decay in time to a velocity that lies close to an average of seawater and air velocities, weighted by a function of the seawater-to-particle density ratio. Such a weighted average velocity turns out to fortuitously be of the type commonly discussed in the search-and-rescue literature, which alone cannot explain the observed role of anticyclonic mesoscale eddies as traps for marine debris or the formation of great garbage patches in the subtropical gyres, phenomena dominated by finite-size effects. A heuristic extension of the theory is proposed to describe the motion of nonspherical particles by means of a simple shape factor correction, and recommendations are made for incorporating wave-induced Stokes drift, and allowing for inhomogeneities of the carrying fluid density. The new Maxey--Riley set outperforms an ocean adaptation that ignored wind drag effects and the first reported adaption that attempted to incorporate them.Comment: To appear in Phys. Fluid

Markov-chain-inspired search for MH370

Markov-chain models are constructed for the probabilistic description of the drift of marine debris from Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. En route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, the MH370 mysteriously disappeared in the southeastern Indian Ocean on 8 March 2014, somewhere along the arc of the 7th ping ring around the Inmarsat-3F1 satellite position when the airplane lost contact. The models are obtained by discretizing the motion of undrogued satellite-tracked surface drifting buoys from the global historical data bank. A spectral analysis, Bayesian estimation, and the computation of most probable paths between the Inmarsat arc and confirmed airplane debris beaching sites are shown to constrain the crash site, near 25$^{\circ}$S on the Inmarsat arc.Comment: Submitted to Chao

Sampling--Dependent Transition Paths of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water

In this note, we apply Transition Path Theory (TPT) from Markov chains to shed light on the problem of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) equatorward export. A recent analysis of observed trajectories of submerged floats demanded revision of the traditional abyssal circulation theory, which postulates that ISOW should steadily flow along a deep boundary current (DBC) around the subpolar North Atlantic prior to exiting it. The TPT analyses carried out here allow to focus the attention on the portions of flow from the origin of ISOW to the region where ISOW exits the subpolar North Atlantic and suggest that insufficient sampling may be biasing the aforementioned demand. The analyses, appropriately adapted to represent a continuous input of ISOW, are carried out on three time-homogeneous Markov chains modeling the ISOW flow. One is constructed using a high number of simulated trajectories homogeneously covering the flow domain. The other two use much fewer trajectories which heterogeneously cover the domain. The trajectories in the latter two chains are observed trajectories or simulated trajectories subsampled at the observed frequency. While the densely sampled chain supports a well-defined DBC, the more heterogeneously sampled chains do not, irrespective of whether observed or simulated trajectories are used. Studying the sampling sensitivity of the Markov chains, we can give recommendations for enlarging the existing float dataset to improve the significance of conclusions about time-asymptotic aspects of the ISOW circulation.Comment: Submitted to JPO. Comments welcomed

Particle acoustic detection in gravitational wave aluminum resonant antennas

The results on cosmic rays detected by the gravitational antenna NAUTILUS have motivated an experiment (RAP) based on a suspended cylindrical bar, which is made of the same aluminum alloy as NAUTILUS and is exposed to a high energy electron beam. Mechanical vibrations originate from the local thermal expansion caused by warming up due to the energy lost by particles crossing the material. The aim of the experiment is to measure the amplitude of the fundamental longitudinal vibration at different temperatures. We report on the results obtained down to a temperature of about 4 K, which agree at the level of about 10% with the predictions of the model describing the underlying physical process.Comment: RAP experiment, 16 pages, 7 figure