Pan-European Chikungunya surveillance: Designing risk stratified surveillance zones

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund - Copyright @ 2009 Tilston et alThe first documented transmission of Chikungunya within Europe took place in Italy during the summer of 2007. Chikungunya, a viral infection affecting millions of people across Africa and Asia, can be debilitating and no prophylactic treatment exists. Although imported cases are reported frequently across Europe, 2007 was the first confirmed European outbreak and available evidence suggests that Aedes albopictus was the vector responsible and the index case was a visitor from India. This paper proposed pan-European surveillance zones for Chikungunya, based on the climatic conditions necessary for vector activity and viral transmission. Pan-European surveillance provides the best hope for an early-warning of outbreaks, because national boundaries do not play a role in defining the risk of this new vector borne disease threat. A review of climates, where Chikungunya has been active, was used to inform the delineation of three pan-European surveillance zones. These vary in size each month across the June-September period of greatest risk. The zones stretch across southern Europe from Portugal to Turkey. Although the focus of this study was to define the geography of potential surveillance zones based on the climatic limits on the vector and virus, a preliminary examination of inward bound airline passengers was also undertaken. This indicated that France and Italy are likely to be at greater risk due to the number of visitors they receive from Chikungunya active regions, principally viraemic visitors from India. Therefore this study represents a first attempt at creating risk stratified surveillance zones, which we believe could be usefully refined with the use of higher resolution climate data and more complete air travel data

Defect Modes and Homogenization of Periodic Schr\"odinger Operators

We consider the discrete eigenvalues of the operator H_\eps=-\Delta+V(\x)+\eps^2Q(\eps\x), where V(\x) is periodic and Q(\y) is localized on $\R^d,\ \ d\ge1$. For \eps>0 and sufficiently small, discrete eigenvalues may bifurcate (emerge) from spectral band edges of the periodic Schr\"odinger operator, H_0 = -\Delta_\x+V(\x), into spectral gaps. The nature of the bifurcation depends on the homogenized Schr\"odinger operator L_{A,Q}=-\nabla_\y\cdot A \nabla_\y +\ Q(\y). Here, $A$ denotes the inverse effective mass matrix, associated with the spectral band edge, which is the site of the bifurcation.Comment: 26 pages, 3 figures, to appear SIAM J. Math. Ana

Euler-Poincare reduction for discrete field theories

In this note, we develop a theory of Euler-Poincare reduction for discrete Lagrangian field theories. We introduce the concept of Euler-Poincare equations for discrete field theories, as well as a natural extension of the Moser-Veselov scheme, and show that both are equivalent. The resulting discrete field equations are interpreted in terms of discrete differential geometry. An application to the theory of discrete harmonic mappings is also briefly discussed.Comment: 24 pages, 3 figures (v2: simplified treatment

Poisson sigma models and symplectic groupoids

We consider the Poisson sigma model associated to a Poisson manifold. The perturbative quantization of this model yields the Kontsevich star product formula. We study here the classical model in the Hamiltonian formalism. The phase space is the space of leaves of a Hamiltonian foliation and has a natural groupoid structure. If it is a manifold then it is a symplectic groupoid for the given Poisson manifold. We study various families of examples. In particular, a global symplectic groupoid for a general class of two-dimensional Poisson domains is constructed.Comment: 34 page

Quantum Sensor Miniaturization

The classical bound on image resolution defined by the Rayleigh limit can be beaten by exploiting the properties of quantum mechanical entanglement. If entangled photons are used as signal states, the best possible resolution is instead given by the Heisenberg limit, an improvement proportional to the number of entangled photons in the signal. In this paper we present a novel application of entanglement by showing that the resolution obtained by an imaging system utilizing separable photons can be achieved by an imaging system making use of entangled photons, but with the advantage of a smaller aperture, thus resulting in a smaller and lighter system. This can be especially valuable in satellite imaging where weight and size play a vital role.Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure. Accepted for publication in Photonics Technology Letter

An effectual template bank for the detection of gravitational waves from inspiralling compact binaries with generic spins

We report the construction of a three-dimensional template bank for the search for gravitational waves from inspiralling binaries consisting of spinning compact objects. The parameter space consists of two dimensions describing the mass parameters and one "reduced-spin" parameter, which describes the secular (non-precessing) spin effects in the waveform. The template placement is based on an efficient stochastic algorithm and makes use of the semi-analytical computation of a metric in the parameter space. We demonstrate that for "low-mass" ($m_1 + m_2 \lesssim 12\,M_\odot$) binaries, this template bank achieves effective fitting factors $\sim0.92$--$0.99$ towards signals from generic spinning binaries in the advanced detector era over the entire parameter space of interest (including binary neutron stars, binary black holes, and black hole-neutron star binaries). This provides a powerful and viable method for searching for gravitational waves from generic spinning low-mass compact binaries. Under the assumption that spin magnitudes of black-holes [neutron-stars] are uniformly distributed between 0--0.98 [0 -- 0.4] and spin angles are isotropically distributed, the expected improvement in the average detection volume (at a fixed signal-to-noise-ratio threshold) of a search using this reduced-spin bank is $\sim20-52\%$, as compared to a search using a non-spinning bank.Comment: Minor changes, version appeared in Phys. Rev.

Bayesian Value-of-Information Analysis: An Application to a Policy Model of Alzheimer's Disease

A framework is presented which distinguishes the conceptually separate decisions of which treatment strategy is optimal from the question of whether more information is required to inform this choice in the future. The authors argue that the choice of treatment strategy should be based on expected utility and the only valid reason to characterise the uncertainty surrounding outcomes of interest is to establish the value of acquiring additional information. A Bayesian decision theoretic approach is demonstrated though a probabilistic analysis of a published policy model of Alzheimer’s disease. The expected value of perfect information is estimated for the decision to adopt a new pharmaceutical for the population of US Alzheimer’s disease patients. This provides an upper bound on the value of additional research. The value of information is also estimated for each of the model inputs. This analysis can focus future research by identifying those parameters where more precise estimates would be most valuable, and indicating whether an experimental design would be required. We also discuss how this type of analysis can also be used to design experimental research efficiently (identifying optimal sample size and optimal sample allocation) based on the marginal cost and marginal benefit of sample information. Value-of-information analysis can provide a measure of the expected payoff from proposed research, which can be used to set priorities in research and development. It can also inform an efficient regulatory framework for new health care technologies: an analysis of the value of information would define when a claim for a new technology should be deemed “substantiated” and when evidence should be considered “competent and reliable” when it is not cost-effective to gather anymore information.stochastic CEA; Bayesian decision theory; value of information.