Inference of Population History using Coalescent HMMs: Review and Outlook

Studying how diverse human populations are related is of historical and anthropological interest, in addition to providing a realistic null model for testing for signatures of natural selection or disease associations. Furthermore, understanding the demographic histories of other species is playing an increasingly important role in conservation genetics. A number of statistical methods have been developed to infer population demographic histories using whole-genome sequence data, with recent advances focusing on allowing for more flexible modeling choices, scaling to larger data sets, and increasing statistical power. Here we review coalescent hidden Markov models, a powerful class of population genetic inference methods that can effectively utilize linkage disequilibrium information. We highlight recent advances, give advice for practitioners, point out potential pitfalls, and present possible future research directions.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figure

Recurrent inversion polymorphisms in humans associate with genetic instability and genomic disorders

Unlike copy number variants (CNVs), inversions remain an underexplored genetic variation class. By integrating multiple genomic technologies, we discover 729 inversions in 41 human genomes. Approximately 85% of inversions <2 kbp form by twin-priming during L1 retrotransposition; 80% of the larger inversions are balanced and affect twice as many nucleotides as CNVs. Balanced inversions show an excess of common variants, and 72% are flanked by segmental duplications (SDs) or retrotransposons. Since flanking repeats promote non-allelic homologous recombination, we developed complementary approaches to identify recurrent inversion formation. We describe 40 recurrent inversions encompassing 0.6% of the genome, showing inversion rates up to 2.7 × 10(-4) per locus per generation. Recurrent inversions exhibit a sex-chromosomal bias and co-localize with genomic disorder critical regions. We propose that inversion recurrence results in an elevated number of heterozygous carriers and structural SD diversity, which increases mutability in the population and predisposes specific haplotypes to disease-causing CNVs

Ancestral population genomics

Borrowing both from population genetics and phylogenetics, the field of population genomics emerged as full genomes of several closely related species were available. Providing we can properly model sequence evolution within populations undergoing speciation events, this resource enables us to estimate key population genetics parameters such as ancestral population sizes and split times. Furthermore we can enhance our understanding of the recombination process and investigate various selective forces. With the advent of resequencing technologies, genome-wide patterns of diversity in extant populations have now come to complement this picture, offering an increasing power to study more recent genetic history

Ordinal classification for efficient plant stress prediction in hyperspectral data

Detection of crop stress from hyperspectral images is of high importance for breeding and precision crop protection. However, the continuous monitoring of stress in phenotyping facilities by hyperspectral imagers produces huge amounts of uninterpreted data. In order to derive a stress description from the images, interpreting algorithms with high prediction performance are required. Based on a static model, the local stress state of each pixel has to be predicted. Due to the low computational complexity, linear models are preferable. In this paper, we focus on drought-induced stress which is represented by discrete stages of ordinal order. We present and compare five methods which are able to derive stress levels from hyperspectral images: One-vs.-one Support Vector Machine (SVM), one-vs.-all SVM, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Support Vector Ordinal Regression (SVORIM) and Linear Ordinal SVM classification. The methods are applied on two data sets - a real world set of drought stress in single barley plants and a simulated data set. It is shown, that Linear Ordinal SVM is a powerful tool for applications which require high prediction performance under limited resources. It is significantly more efficient than the one-vs.-one SVM and even more efficient than the less accurate one-vs.-all SVM. Compared to the very compact SVORIM model, it represents the senescence process much more accurate

Inference of complex population histories using whole-genome sequences from multiple populations

There has been much interest in analyzing genome-scale DNA sequence data to infer population histories, but inference methods developed hitherto are limited in model complexity and computational scalability. Here we present an efficient, flexible statistical method, diCal2, that can use whole-genome sequence data from multiple populations to infer complex demographic models involving population size changes, population splits, admixture, and migration. Applying our method to data from Australian, East Asian, European, and Papuan populations, we find that the population ancestral to Australians and Papuans started separating from East Asians and Europeans about 100,000 y ago, and that the separation of East Asians and Europeans started about 50,000 y ago, with pervasive gene flow between all pairs of populations

Polygenic score accuracy in ancient samples: Quantifying the effects of allelic turnover.

Polygenic scores link the genotypes of ancient individuals to their phenotypes, which are often unobservable, offering a tantalizing opportunity to reconstruct complex trait evolution. In practice, however, interpretation of ancient polygenic scores is subject to numerous assumptions. For one, the genome-wide association (GWA) studies from which polygenic scores are derived, can only estimate effect sizes for loci segregating in contemporary populations. Therefore, a GWA study may not correctly identify all loci relevant to trait variation in the ancient population. In addition, the frequencies of trait-associated loci may have changed in the intervening years. Here, we devise a theoretical framework to quantify the effect of this allelic turnover on the statistical properties of polygenic scores as functions of population genetic dynamics, trait architecture, power to detect significant loci, and the age of the ancient sample. We model the allele frequencies of loci underlying trait variation using the Wright-Fisher diffusion, and employ the spectral representation of its transition density to find analytical expressions for several error metrics, including the expected sample correlation between the polygenic scores of ancient individuals and their true phenotypes, referred to as polygenic score accuracy. Our theory also applies to a two-population scenario and demonstrates that allelic turnover alone may explain a substantial percentage of the reduced accuracy observed in cross-population predictions, akin to those performed in human genetics. Finally, we use simulations to explore the effects of recent directional selection, a bias-inducing process, on the statistics of interest. We find that even in the presence of bias, weak selection induces minimal deviations from our neutral expectations for the decay of polygenic score accuracy. By quantifying the limitations of polygenic scores in an explicit evolutionary context, our work lays the foundation for the development of more sophisticated statistical procedures to analyze both temporally and geographically resolved polygenic scores