Social network structures and the politics of public goods provision: evidence from the Philippines

We study the relationship between social structure and political incentives for public goods provision. We argue that when politicians—rather than communities—are responsible for the provision of public goods, social fractionalization may decrease the risk of elite capture and lead to increased public goods provision and electoral competition. We test this using large-scale data on family networks from over 20 million individuals in 15,000 villages of the Philippines. We take advantage of naming conventions to assess intermarriage links between families and use community detection algorithms to identify the relevant clans in those villages. We show that there is more public goods provision and political competition in villages with more fragmented social networks, a result that is robust to controlling for a large number of village characteristics and to alternative estimation techniques

Social network structures and the politics of public goods provision: evidence from the Philippines

We study the relationship between social structure and political incentives for public goods provision. We argue that when politicians—rather than communities—are responsible for the provision of public goods, social fractionalization may decrease the risk of elite capture and lead to increased public goods provision and electoral competition. We test this using large-scale data on family networks from over 20 million individuals in 15,000 villages of the Philippines. We take advantage of naming conventions to assess intermarriage links between families and use community detection algorithms to identify the relevant clans in those villages. We show that there is more public goods provision and political competition in villages with more fragmented social networks, a result that is robust to controlling for a large number of village characteristics and to alternative estimation techniques

Politician family networks and electoral outcomes: evidence from the Philippines

We demonstrate the importance of politician social networks for electoral outcomes. Using largescale data on family networks from over 20 million individuals in 15,000 villages in the Philippines, we show that candidates for public office are disproportionately drawn from more central families and family network centrality contributes to higher vote shares during the elections. Consistent with our theory of political intermediation, we present evidence that family network centrality facilitates relationships of political exchange. Moreover, we show that family networks exercise an effect independent of wealth, historical elite status, or previous electoral success

Politician family networks and electoral outcomes: evidence from the Philippines

We demonstrate the importance of politician social networks for electoral outcomes. Using largescale data on family networks from over 20 million individuals in 15,000 villages in the Philippines, we show that candidates for public office are disproportionately drawn from more central families and family network centrality contributes to higher vote shares during the elections. Consistent with our theory of political intermediation, we present evidence that family network centrality facilitates relationships of political exchange. Moreover, we show that family networks exercise an effect independent of wealth, historical elite status, or previous electoral success

Political dynasties, term limits and female political representation: Evidence from the Philippines

We investigate the effect of term limits on female political representation. Using data from Philippine municipalities where strict term limits have been in place since 1987, we show that term limits led to a large increase in the number of women running and winning in mayoral elections. However, we show that this increase is entirely driven by female relatives of the term-limited incumbents. We further show that the differential gender impact of this policy is driven by political dynasties’ adaptive strategies to stay in power

The real winner's curse

Traditional theories of democracy suggest that political representation of excluded groups can reduce their incentives to engage in conflict and lead to lower violence. However, this argument ignores the response of established elites when (1) their interests are threatened by the policy stance of new political actors and (2) elites have a comparative advantage in the exercise of violence. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we show that the narrow election of previously excluded left‐wing parties to local executive office in Colombia results in a one standard deviation increase in violent events by right‐wing paramilitaries. We interpret this surge in violence as a reaction of traditional elites to offset the increase in outsiders' access to formal political power. Consistent with this interpretation, we find that violence by left‐wing guerrillas and other actors is unaffected and that violence is not influenced by the victory of right‐wing or other new parties in close elections

Changes in mental disorder prevalence among conflict-affected populations: a prospective study in Sri Lanka (COMRAID-R).

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal data are lacking on mental health trajectories following conflict resolution and return migration. COMRAID-R is a follow-up study of Muslims displaced by conflict from Northern Sri Lanka 20 years ago who are now beginning to return. METHODS: Of 450 participants in displacement interviewed in 2011, 338 (75.1%) were re-interviewed a year later, and a supplementary random sample (n = 228) was drawn from return migrants with a comparable displacement history. Common mental disorder (CMD; Patient Health Questionnaire) and post-traumatic stress disorder (CIDI-subscale) were measured. RESULTS: A CMD prevalence of 18.8% (95%CI 15.2-22.5) at baseline had reduced to 8.6% (5.6-11.7) at follow-up in those remaining in displacement, and was 10.3% (6.5-14.1) in return migrants. PTSD prevalences were 2.4%, 0.3% and 1.6% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a substantial decrease in CMD prevalence in this population over a short period, which may reflect the prospect of return migration and associated optimism following conflict resolution

Demographics and patterns of care for veterans with colorectal cancer

e14124 Background: This study is to analyze demographics and patterns of care for veterans with colorectal cancer. Methods: In an IRB approved protocol, we reviewed the records of pts diagnosed with colorectal adenocarcinoma at a VA Medical Center from 1/1/2003 to 12/31/2007. Demographics including age, sex, ECOG PS, stage, grade, site, CEA, hemoglobin (HGB), liver function tests at diagnosis, treatments and cause of death were reviewed. Results: There were 176 pts with colorectal ca with 112 colon (C) and 64 rectal ca (R) pts. One was a woman and the rest were men. The median age at diagnosis was 71 years (range 45-90). Median survival was 1157 days (5-3256). 95 (54%) pts were dead at this analysis. Median ECOG PS is 0. 160 pts had ECOG PS 0-2, 16pts ECOG 3-4. 4 (2.4%). 4 (2.4%) pts has stage 0, 51 (30.7%) stage 1, 42 (25.3%) stage 2, 35 (21.1%) stage 3, and 34 (20.5%) stage 4. 6 (3.7%) has grade 1, 111 (68.1%) grade 2, and 46 (28.2%) grade 3. Median CEA at diagnosis was 2.9 (0-3117), HGB 12.4 g/dl (6.6-16.7), albumin g/dl 3.98(1.7-4.7), AST 23 units/L (4-107), ALT 20 units/L (8-107), ALKP 77 units/L (37-352), Total bilirubin 0.7 mg/dl (0.1-4.5). 29 pts has liver metastasis at diagnosis. 147 pts (85.4%) received surgical resection. Total 43 pts had adjuvant treatment. 17 pts with rectal cancer had neoadjuvant chemoradiation . 7 pts had down staging and 3 pts had no residual disease after neoadjuvant chemoradiatoion. Total 14 pts had recurrence. 23 pts received palliative chemotherapy when metastatic. 54 of 95 pts (57%) died from cancer progression. Conclusions: This study provides a basis for understanding the epidemiology of colorectal cancer patient in a VA medical center

Comorbidity and other predictors of survival in veterans with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC)

e15561 Background: Comorbidity as a prognostic marker has been reported in several solid tumors. We examined whether co-morbidity indices predict survival in Veterans with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who were treated with signal transduction inhibitors. Methods: In an IRB-approved protocol, we reviewed the records of patients (Pts) diagnosed with RCC at a VA Medical Center from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2011. Age, ECOG Performance Status (ECOG PS), Hemoglobin (Hgb), Albumin (Alb), Corrected Calcium (CCa), history of Nephrectomy, and histology (clear cell (CC) vs. non clear cell (NCC)) were abstracted. Co-morbidity was assessed with Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and the Kaplan-Feinstein Index (KFI). We developed a survival model with age, ECOG PS, Hgb, Alb, CCa, history of nephrectomy, and histology. Co-morbidity indices were tested by determining if they were independent predictors of survival after inclusion in this model. Cox regression analyses were performed with SAS V9.2. Results: There were 24 Pts;6 (25%) are alive. The Median (M) age when seen at VA was 64 years (54-85). The M Hgb level was 12.1g/dL (6.7-16.5), Alb was 4.1g/dL (2.8-5.0), and CCa was 9.19mg/dL (7.9-12.5). The M CCI was 4.2 (1.4-12.0) and KFI was 2.0 (1-3). The M Survival was 823 days (24-3482). 17(68%) pts had clear cell carcinoma and 18(72%) had nephrectomies Median ECOG PS was one range(0-4). The median number of treatments was 2, range 1-7. Results of univariate analyses with co-morbidity indices were significant for age (p < ,029) and history of nephrectomy p< .068). There were no multivariate predictors of survival. Conclusions: In the univariate analysis, ECOG PS as well as Nephrectomy status were significant predictors for M survival. CCI and KFI did not predict M survival. In distinction to other solid tumor histologies where chemotherapy is used, KFI and CCI in RCC may not be associated with overall survival due to either RCC histology or use of signal transduction inhibitors as treatment. Confirmatory studies should be done in larger populations. This was supported by the New Jersey Commission for Cancer Research