A Reconciliation between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) prepares the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), and the Bureau of Economic Analysis prepares the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) chain-type price index. Both indexes measure the prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Because the two indexes are based on different underlying concepts, they are constructed differently, and tend to behave differently over time. From the first quarter of 2002 through the second quarter of 2007, the CPI-U increased 0.4 percentage point per year faster than the PCE price index. This paper details and quantifies the differences in growth rates between the CPI-U and the PCE price index; it provides a quarterly reconciliation of growth rates for the 2002:Q1- 2007:Q2 time period. There are several factors that explain the differences in growth rates between the CPI and the PCE price index. First, the indexes are based on difference index-number formulas. The CPI-U is based on a Laspeyres index; the PCE price index is based on a Fisher-Ideal index. Second, the relative weights assigned to the detailed item prices in each index are different because they are based on different data sources. The weights used in the CPIU are based on a household survey, while the weights used in the PCE price index are based on business surveys. Third, there are scope differences between the two indexes— that is, there are items in the CPI-U that are out-of-scope of the PCE price index, and there are items in the PCE price index that are out-of-scope of the CPI-U. And finally, there are differences in the seasonal-adjustment routines and in the detailed price indexes used to construct the two indexes. Over the 2002:Q1-2007:Q2 time period, this analysis finds that almost half of the 0.4 percentage point difference in growth rates between the CPI-U and the PCE price index was explained by differences in index-number formulas. After adjusting for formula differences, differences in relative weights—primarily “rent of shelter”—more than accounted for the remaining difference in growth rates. Net scope differences, in contrast, partly offset the effect of relative weight differences.

Threatened, endemic and harvested – two overlooked European skates

Sandy ray Leucoraja circularis and shagreen ray L. fullonica are large-bodied skate species occurring in the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean on the edge of the continental shelf and upper slope. These areas are not sampled effectively by fishery-independent trawl surveys, and fisheries-dependent data are also limited, as these species are landed as a bycatch. Consequently, there are no formal assessments or reference points, even though they are harvested as part of the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) for generic skates and rays. The implementation of data-limited assessment methods is often reliant on robust life-history data, which was lacking. Therefore, biological data were collected from 116 specimens of L. circularis (21–116 cm LT) and 54 specimens of L. fullonica (19–100 cm LT). Length at 50% maturity for L. circularis was estimated at 81 cm LT and 100 cm LT for males and females, respectively. This large size at maturity makes them more biologically vulnerable than other skate species managed under the generic TAC. This inherent vulnerability, low representation of mature individuals in trawl surveys and bycatch risk due to spatial overlap with important commercial fisheries suggests that both species, assessed as Threatened, would benefit from precautionary species-specific management measures. L. circularis and L. fullonica are respectively, the only IUCN listed Endangered and Vulnerable elasmobranchs that are endemic to Europe and also occur in UK waters. Therefore, with the eastern Atlantic being the main part of their distribution, urgent research and management action is of even greater importance to conserve them

Comprehensive Observations of the Bright and Energetic Type Iax SN 2012Z: Interpretation as a Chandrasekhar Mass White Dwarf Explosion

We present UV through NIR broad-band photometry, and optical and NIR spectroscopy of Type Iax supernova 2012Z. The data set consists of both early and late-time observations, including the first late phase NIR spectrum obtained for a spectroscopically classified SN Iax. Simple model calculations of its bolometric light curve suggest SN 2012Z produced ~0.3 M_sun of (56)Ni, ejected about a Chandrasekhar mass of material, and had an explosion energy of ~10^51 erg, making it one of the brightest and most energetic SN Iax yet observed. The late phase NIR spectrum of SN 2012Z is found to broadly resemble similar epoch spectra of normal SNe Ia; however, like other SNe Iax, corresponding visual-wavelength spectra differ substantially compared to all supernova types. Constraints from the distribution of IMEs, e.g. silicon and magnesium, indicate that the outer ejecta did not experience significant mixing during or after burning, and the late phase NIR line profiles suggests most of the (56)Ni is produced during high density burning. The various observational properties of SN 2012Z are found to be consistent with the theoretical expectations of a Chandrasekhar mass white dwarf progenitor that experiences a pulsational delayed detonation, which produced several tenths of a solar mass of (56)Ni during the deflagration burning phase and little (or no) (56)Ni during the detonation phase. Within this scenario only a moderate amount of Rayleigh-Taylor mixing occurs both during the deflagration and fallback phase of the pulsation, and the layered structure of the IMEs is a product of the subsequent denotation phase. The fact that the SNe Iax population does not follow a tight brightness-decline relation similar to SNe Ia can then be understood in the framework of variable amounts of mixing during pulsational rebound and variable amounts of (56)Ni production during the early subsonic phase of expansion.Comment: Submitted to A&A, manuscript includes response to referee's comments. 39 pages, including 16 figures, 9 table

Extensive HST Ultraviolet Spectra and Multi-wavelength Observations of SN 2014J in M82 Indicate Reddening and Circumstellar Scattering by Typical Dust

SN 2014J in M82 is the closest detected Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) in at least 28 years and perhaps in 410 years. Despite its small distance of 3.3 Mpc, SN 2014J is surprisingly faint, peaking at V = 10.6 mag, and assuming a typical SN Ia luminosity, we infer an observed visual extinction of A_V = 2.0 +/- 0.1 mag. But this picture, with R_V = 1.6 +/- 0.2, is too simple to account for all observations. We combine 10 epochs (spanning a month) of HST/STIS ultraviolet through near-infrared spectroscopy with HST/WFC3, KAIT, and FanCam photometry from the optical to the infrared and 9 epochs of high-resolution TRES spectroscopy to investigate the sources of extinction and reddening for SN 2014J. We argue that the wide range of observed properties for SN 2014J is caused by a combination of dust reddening, likely originating in the interstellar medium of M82, and scattering off circumstellar material. For this model, roughly half of the extinction is caused by reddening from typical dust (E(B-V ) = 0.45 mag and R_V = 2.6) and roughly half by scattering off LMC-like dust in the circumstellar environment of SN 2014J.Comment: 17 pages (excluding references and tables), 15 figures, accepted to MNRAS. A high-resolution HST image of SN 2014J in M82 is available upon reques

The progenitor and early evolution of the Type IIb SN 2016gkg

We report initial observations and analysis on the Type IIb SN~2016gkg in the nearby galaxy NGC~613. SN~2016gkg exhibited a clear double-peaked light curve during its early evolution, as evidenced by our intensive photometric follow-up campaign. SN~2016gkg shows strong similarities with other Type IIb SNe, in particular with respect to the \he~emission features observed in both the optical and near infrared. SN~2016gkg evolved faster than the prototypical Type~IIb SN~1993J, with a decline similar to that of SN~2011dh after the first peak. The analysis of archival {\it Hubble Space Telescope} images indicate a pre-explosion source at SN~2016gkg's position, suggesting a progenitor star with a $\sim$mid F spectral type and initial mass $15-20$\msun, depending on the distance modulus adopted for NGC~613. Modeling the temperature evolution within $5\,\rm{days}$ of explosion, we obtain a progenitor radius of $\sim\,48-124$\rsun, smaller than that obtained from the analysis of the pre-explosion images ($240-320$\rsun).Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures. Submitted to ApJ Letter

AT 2017be - a new member of the class of Intermediate-Luminosity Red Transients

We report the results of our spectrophotometric monitoring campaign for AT~2017be in NGC~2537. Its lightcurve reveals a fast rise to an optical maximum, followed by a plateau lasting about 30 days, and finally a fast decline. Its absolute peak magnitude ($M_{r}$ $\simeq$ $-$12 $\rm{mag}$) is fainter than that of core-collapse supernovae, and is consistent with those of supernova impostors and other Intermediate-Luminosity Optical Transients. The quasi-bolometric lightcurve peaks at $\sim$ 2 $\times$ 10$^{40}$ erg s$^{-1}$, and the late-time photometry allows us to constrain an ejected $^{56}$Ni mass of $\sim$ 8 $\times$ 10$^{-4}$\msun. The spectra of AT~2017be show minor evolution over the observational period, a relatively blue continuum showing at early phases, which becomes redder with time. A prominent H$\alpha$ emission line always dominates over other Balmer lines. Weak Fe {\sc ii} features, Ca~{\sc ii} H$\&$K and the Ca {\sc ii} NIR triplet are also visible, while P-Cygni absorption troughs are found in a high resolution spectrum. In addition, the [Ca~{\sc ii}] $\lambda$7291,7324 doublet is visible in all spectra. This feature is typical of Intermediate-Luminosity Red Transients (ILRTs), similar to SN~2008S. The relatively shallow archival Spitzer data are not particularly constraining. On the other hand, a non-detection in deeper near-infrared HST images disfavours a massive Luminous Blue Variable eruption as the origin for AT~2017be. As has been suggested for other ILRTs, we propose that AT~2017be is a candidate for a weak electron-capture supernova explosion of a super-asymptotic giant branch star, still embedded in a thick dusty envelope.Comment: 21 pages, 15 figures, accepted by MNRA