Monetary Policy Preferences of the EMU and the UK

We estimate the central bank policy preferences for the European Monetary Union and for the UK. In doing so, we extend the theoretical framework suggested by Cecchetti et al. (2002) by assuming that policy preferences change across different regimes either due to the different phases of the business cycle, or due to changes in propagation mechanism, or due to volatility shifts of the underlying structural shocks. Our empirical results suggest that the weight that policy makers put on inflation is typically profound. Furthermore, it appears that volatility shifts of the economic disturbances is the main factor, which generates variation in policy preferences.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.1212

Reflections on Aspects of Macroeconomic Policies in the Spirit of Geoff Harcourt

This article opens with some remarks on Geoff Harcourt’s thoughts on macroeconomic policies (broadly conceived). This is followed by comments on some recent developments within the scope of fiscal policy. The article moves on to aspects of monetary policy and central banks, with particular reference to the ‘independence’ of central banks and inflation targeting. There are then relatively brief discussions on three policy areas on which policies pursued by the central banks have some, albeit often limited, impacts, namely, financial stability, inequality, and climate change and environmental damage. The article considers alternative approaches to controlling inflation in view of the failures of the inflation targeting regime (and Geoff’s interest in incomes policy)

The Brazilian monetary and fiscal policies from 2011 to 2017: conventions and crisis

Post Keynesians define conventions as creeds shared by individuals who use them to ground their expectations. Economic policymaking plays a major role in the development of conventions. Thus, this article analyses Brazil’s fiscal and monetary policies over 2011-2017. First, it shows how the monetary policy over 2011-2014 wasted the opportunity to establish a lower base rate in Brazil, what we call ‘the mistakes of the past’. Second, it argues that the austerity policy implemented after 2015 formed the convention that public investments are not needed to boost private investments; this is what we call ‘the loss of future opportunities’

The effects of financialisation and financial development on investment: Evidence from firm-level data in Europe

In this paper we estimate the effects of financialization on physical investment in selected western European countries using panel data based on the balance-sheets of publicly listed non-financial companies (NFCs) supplied by Worldscope for the period 1995-2015. We find robust evidence of an adverse effect of both financial payments (interests and dividends) and financial incomes on investment in fixed assets by the NFCs. This finding is robust for both the pool of all Western European firms and single country estimations. The negative impacts of financial incomes are non-linear with respect to the companies’ size: financial incomes crowd-out investment in large companies, and have a positive effect on the investment of only small, relatively more credit-constrained companies. Moreover, we find that a higher degree of financial development is associated with a stronger negative effect of financial incomes on companies’ investment. This finding challenges the common wisdom on ‘finance-growth nexus’. Our findings support the ‘financialization thesis’ that the increasing orientation of the non-financial sector towards financial activities is ultimately leading to lower physical investment, hence to stagnant or fragile growth, as well as long term stagnation in productivity

The Crisis of Finance-Dominated Capitalism in the Euro Area, Deficiencies in the Economic Policy Architecture, and Deflationary Stagnation Policies

* For a more detailed elaboration on the macroeconomic theory of finance-dominated capitalism, see the respective chapters in my book The Macroeconomics of Finance-dominated Capitalism – and Its Crisis (Hein 2012a). The present paper is based on this theory, and it extends and updates the analysis of the euro crisis I have presented in Hein (2012b). I would like to thank Achim Truger for his helpful comments and Matthias Mundt for his valuable research assistance. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad

The US stock market leads the Federal funds rate and Treasury bond yields

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including and especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen at key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl