2,026 research outputs found
On identifiability of MAP processes
Two types of transitions can be found in the Markovian Arrival process or MAP: with and without arrivals. In transient transitions the chain jumps from one state to another with no arrival; in effective transitions, a single arrival occurs. We assume that in practice, only arrival times are observed in a MAP. This leads us to define and study the Effective Markovian Arrival process or E-MAP. In this work we define identifiability of MAPs in terms of equivalence between the corresponding E-MAPs and study conditions under which two sets of parameters induce identical laws for the observable process, in the case of 2 and 3-states MAP. We illustrate and discuss our results with examples.Batch Markovian Arrival process, Hidden Markov models, Identifiability problems
BAYESIAN ESTIMATION FOR THE M/G/1 QUEUE USING A PHASE TYPE APPROXIMATION
This article deals with Bayesian inference and prediction for M/G/1 queueing systems. The general service time density is approximated with a class of Erlang mixtures which are phase type distributions. Given this phase type approximation, an explicit evaluation of measures such as the stationary queue size, waiting time and busy period distributions can be obtained. Given arrival and service data, a Bayesian procedure based on reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods is proposed to estimate system parameters and predictive distributions.
Non-identifiability of the two state Markovian Arrival process
In this paper we consider the problem of identifiability of the two-state Markovian Arrival process (MAP2). In particular, we show that the MAP2 is not identifiable and conditions are given under which two different sets of parameters, induce identical stationary laws for the observable process.Batch Markovian Arrival process, Markov Renewal process, Hidden Markov models, Identifiability problems
On the Conjecture of Kochar and Korwar
In this paper, we solve for some cases a conjecture by Kochar and Korwar (1996) in relation with the normalized spacings of the order statistics related to a sample of independent exponential random variables with different scale parameter. In the case of a sample of size n=3, they proved the ordering of the normalized spacings and conjectured that result holds for all n. We give the proof of this conjecture for n=4 and for both spacing and normalized spacings. We also generalize some results to n>4Heterogeneous exponential distribution, Hazard rate order, Normalized
On stochastic properties between some ordered random variables
A great number of articles have dealt with stochastic comparisons of ordered random variables in the last decades. In particular, distributional and stochastic properties of ordinary order statistics have been studied extensively in the literature. Sequential order statistics are proposed as an extension of ordinary order statistics. Since sequential order statistics models unify various models of ordered random variables, it is interesting to study their distributional and stochastic properties. In this work, we consider the problem of comparing sequential order statistics according to magnitude and location orders.Stochastic orderings, Reliability, Order statistics
Inference for double Pareto lognormal queues with applications
In this article we describe a method for carrying out Bayesian inference for the double Pareto lognormal (dPlN) distribution which has recently been proposed as a model for heavy-tailed phenomena. We apply our approach to inference for the dPlN/M/1 and M/dPlN/1 queueing systems. These systems cannot be analyzed using standard techniques due to the fact that the dPlN distribution does not posses a Laplace transform in closed form. This difficulty is overcome using some recent approximations for the Laplace transform for the Pareto/M/1 system. Our procedure is illustrated with applications in internet traffic analysis and risk theory.Heavy tails, Bayesian inference, Queueing theory
TRANSIENT BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR SHORT AND LONG-TAILED GI/G/1 QUEUEING SYSTEMS
In this paper, we describe how to make Bayesian inference for the transient behaviour and busy period in a single server system with general and unknown distribution for the service and interarrival time. The dense family of Coxian distributions is used for the service and arrival process to the system. This distribution model is reparametrized such that it is possible to define a non-informative prior which allows for the approximation of heavytailed distributions. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the predictive distribution of the interarrival and service time. Our procedure for estimating the system measures is based in recent results for known parameters which are frequently implemented by using symbolical packages. Alternatively, we propose a simple numerical technique that can be performed for every MCMC iteration so that we can estimate interesting measures, such as the transient queue length distribution. We illustrate our approach with simulated and real queues.
BAYESIAN CONTROL OF THE NUMBER OF SERVERS IN A GI/M/C QUEUING SYSTEM
In this paper we consider the problem of designing a GI/M/c queueing system. Given arrival and service data, our objective is to choose the optimal number of servers so as to minimize an expected cost function which depends on quantities, such as the number of customers in the queue. A semiparametric approach based on Erlang mixture distributions is used to model the general interarrival time distribution. Given the sample data, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the system parameters and the predictive distributions of the usual performance measures. We can then use these estimates to minimize the steady-state expected total cost rate as a function of the control parameter c. We provide a numerical example based on real data obtained from a bank in Madrid.
Statistical properties of thermodynamically predicted RNA secondary structures in viral genomes
By performing a comprehensive study on 1832 segments of 1212 complete genomes
of viruses, we show that in viral genomes the hairpin structures of
thermodynamically predicted RNA secondary structures are more abundant than
expected under a simple random null hypothesis. The detected hairpin structures
of RNA secondary structures are present both in coding and in noncoding regions
for the four groups of viruses categorized as dsDNA, dsRNA, ssDNA and ssRNA.
For all groups hairpin structures of RNA secondary structures are detected more
frequently than expected for a random null hypothesis in noncoding rather than
in coding regions. However, potential RNA secondary structures are also present
in coding regions of dsDNA group. In fact we detect evolutionary conserved RNA
secondary structures in conserved coding and noncoding regions of a large set
of complete genomes of dsDNA herpesviruses.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure
Inference for double Pareto lognormal queues with applications
In this article we describe a method for carrying out Bayesian inference for the double
Pareto lognormal (dPlN) distribution which has recently been proposed as a model for
heavy-tailed phenomena. We apply our approach to inference for the dPlN/M/1 and
M/dPlN/1 queueing systems. These systems cannot be analyzed using standard
techniques due to the fact that the dPlN distribution does not posses a Laplace transform
in closed form. This difficulty is overcome using some recent approximations for the
Laplace transform for the Pareto/M/1 system. Our procedure is illustrated with
applications in internet traffic analysis and risk theory
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