Credit expansion and the economy

Credit expansion has been associated with faster economic growth and with a higher occurrence of financial crises – a pair of results which seem to contradict each other. This paper advances an explanation for these results by separating credit to the private sector into credit to firms and credit to households. The empirical analysis shows that credit to firms is responsible for the positive growth effect, while the higher occurrence of crises is mainly due to credit to households. The events of the last decade, where fast credit expansion led to crises and very little growth, can be understood as a shift in the composition of credit towards its household component

Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market

Speculative bubbles have been occurring periodically in local or global real estate markets and are considered a potential cause of economic crises. In this context, the detection of explosive behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of critical importance. The recent increase in Brazilian housing prices has risen concerns that the Brazilian economy may have a speculative housing bubble. In the present paper, we employ a recently proposed recursive unit root test in order to identify possible speculative bubbles in data from the Brazilian residential real-estate market. The empirical results show evidence for speculative price bubbles both in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, the two main Brazilian cities

Effects of the current financial and economic crisis on the rural landscape as well as the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia

This paper reviews the expected effects of the current financial crisis and subsequent recession on the rural landscape, in particular the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) on the basis of the structure of the rural economy and of different organisations and institutions. Empirical evidence suggests that the crisis has hit the ECA region the hardest. Agriculture contributes about 9% to gross domestic product (GDP) for the ECA region as a whole with 16% of the population being employed in the agricultural sector. As far as the impact of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector is concerned, there are a few interconnected issues: (1) reduction in income elastic food demand and commodity price decline, (2) loss of employment and earnings of rural people working in urban centres, implying also costly labour reallocation, (3) rising rural poverty originating mainly from lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector and a sizable decline of international remittances, (4) tightening of agricultural credit markets, and the (5) collapse of sectoral government support programs and social safety-net measures in many countries. The paper reveals how the crisis hit farming and broader agri-business differently in general and in the ECA sub-regions

Toward a sustainable eurozone

We argue that the various proposals aimed at stabilizing the Eurozone using financial engineering do not eliminate the inherent instability of the sovereign bond markets in a monetary union. During crises, this instability becomes systemic and no amount of financial engineering can stabilize an otherwise unstable system. The real stabilization of the Eurozone entails two mechanisms. The first is the willingness of the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide liquidity in the Eurozone sovereign bond markets during times of crisis. The ECB has set up its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program to do this. However, OMT is loaded with austerity conditions, which will be counterproductive when used during recessions, which is when crises generally occur. That is why a second mechanism is necessary, which consists in creating a Eurozone budget

Beginning of the End of Cost Competitiveness in CEE Countries - Analysis of Dependence between Labor Costs and Internationalization of the Region

In order to exemplify the above econometric model I carried out empirical analysis of the companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, identifying the companies for which efficiency-seeking is the main internationalization motive. The analysis of internationalization of 26 companies during the years 1990-2010 clearly shows that a significant part of investments is located outside the territory of Poland, in the countries with lower labor costs. This fact confirms that CEE countries will gradually become less and less attractive in terms of costs not only for MNEs from developed countries but also for the companies originating from transition economies.Głównym celem artykułu jest weryfikacja, czy niski poziom kosztów pracy w Europie Środkowej i Wschodniej będący do tej pory jednym z czynników wpływających na konkurencyjność tego regionu pozostanie nim w dłuższej perspektywie czasowej. W pracy na podstawie próby wszystkich państw UE zbadano zależność pomiędzy poziomem internacjonalizacji (stan odpływu BIZ per capita) a kosztami pracy w sektorze przedsiębiorstw i GNP per capita. Analiza regresji potwierdziła istnienie zależności pomiędzy wyżej wymienionymi czynnikami. Oznacza to, że stopniowy wzrost kosztów pracy w państwach Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej prowadził będzie do stopniowego odpływu BIZ z tego regionu do państw bardziej konkurencyjnych kosztowo. W celu egzemplifikacji powyższych zależności w pracy dodatkowo przedstawiono analizę inwestycji zagranicznych polskich spółek notowanych na GPW, z których to 26 dokonało inwwestycji zagranicznych o wyraźnych motywach związanych z obniżeniem kosztów produkcji. Fakt ten potwierdza powolny spadek konkurencyjności kosztowej polskiej gospodarki, tym samym zmusza do poszukiwania nowych rozwiązań instytucjonalnych mogących utrzymać konkurencyjność polskiej gospodarki w długim okresie

Political Regimes and Sovereign Credit Risk in Europe, 1750-1913

This article uses a new panel data set to perform a statistical analysis of political regimes and sovereign credit risk in Europe from 1750 to 1913. Old Regime polities typically suffered from fiscal fragmentation and absolutist rule. By the start of World War I, however, many such countries had centralized institutions and limited government. Panel regressions indicate that centralized and?or limited regimes were associated with significant improvements in credit risk relative to fragmented and absolutist ones. Structural break tests also reveal close relationships between major turning points in yield series and political transformations

The Olympic Bid Cycle as a form of irrational investing: An application of Minskyian theory

Host city bidding for the Olympic Games appears to constitute a form of pro-cyclical irrational investing that leads to multi-billion dollar economic and financial shortfalls and budget over-runs with 100% consistency. The utilisation of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) and Credit Cycle to the Olympic Bid Cycle sheds valuable light on the irrationality of these practices, highlighting a move from stable (hedge) to unstable (speculative) and unsustainable, precarious (ponzi) financing over the life-cycle of an Olympic bid. Application of Minskyian theory to the Olympic Bid Cycle carries important insights for practitioners and policy-makers, extends the analysis of Olympic-Games studies to the post-Classical economics realm, and addresses a wider theoretical call for the utilisation of Minskyian theory outside of a financial markets context. The article concludes with recommendations for further research

Bitcoin: The road to hell is paved with good promises

In this paper, by using econometric techniques we provide evidence that bitcoin exhibited the formation of speculative bubble in 2017. To conceptually rationalize the results, we delve into the extant theoretical approaches developed by Kindleberger's (1978) speculative bubbles and Minsky's (1992) financial instability hypothesis. Certainly, bitcoin has spurred a revolution in payment technology that, if treated cautiously can facilitate financial intermediation and inclusion. Ultimately, whether or not bitcoin constitutes a bubble is a decision for investors as the road to hell is paved with good promises