Increased Belief Instability in Psychotic Disorders Predicts Treatment Response to Metacognitive Training

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: In a complex world, gathering information and adjusting our beliefs about the world is of paramount importance. The literature suggests that patients with psychotic disorders display a tendency to draw early conclusions based on limited evidence, referred to as the jumping-to-conclusions bias, but few studies have examined the computational mechanisms underlying this and related belief-updating biases. Here, we employ a computational approach to understand the relationship between jumping-to-conclusions, psychotic disorders, and delusions. STUDY DESIGN: We modeled probabilistic reasoning of 261 patients with psychotic disorders and 56 healthy controls during an information sampling task-the fish task-with the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter. Subsequently, we examined the clinical utility of this computational approach by testing whether computational parameters, obtained from fitting the model to each individual's behavior, could predict treatment response to Metacognitive Training using machine learning. STUDY RESULTS: We observed differences in probabilistic reasoning between patients with psychotic disorders and healthy controls, participants with and without jumping-to-conclusions bias, but not between patients with low and high current delusions. The computational analysis suggested that belief instability was increased in patients with psychotic disorders. Jumping-to-conclusions was associated with both increased belief instability and greater prior uncertainty. Lastly, belief instability predicted treatment response to Metacognitive Training at the individual level. CONCLUSIONS: Our results point towards increased belief instability as a key computational mechanism underlying probabilistic reasoning in psychotic disorders. We provide a proof-of-concept that this computational approach may be useful to help identify suitable treatments for individual patients with psychotic disorders

Zebrafish as a model for kidney function and disease

Kidney disease is a global problem with around three million people diagnosed in the UK alone and the incidence is rising. Research is critical to develop better treatments. Animal models can help to better understand the pathophysiology behind the various kidney diseases and to screen for therapeutic compounds, but the use especially of mammalian models should be minimised in the interest of animal welfare. Zebrafish are increasingly used, as they are genetically tractable and have a basic renal anatomy comparable to mammalian kidneys with glomerular filtration and tubular filtration processing. Here, we discuss how zebrafish have advanced the study of nephrology and the mechanisms underlying kidney disease

Portweather: A lightweight onboard solution for real-time weather prediction

Maritime journeys significantly depend on weather conditions, and so meteorology has always had a key role in maritime businesses. Nowadays, the new era of innovative machine learning approaches along with the availability of a wide range of sensors and microcontrollers creates increasing perspectives for providing on-board reliable short-range forecasting of main meteorological variables. The main goal of this study is to propose a lightweight on-board solution for real-time weather prediction. The system is composed of a commercial weather station integrated with an industrial IOT-edge data processing module that computes the wind direction and speed forecasts without the need of an Internet connection. A regression machine learning algorithm was chosen so as to require the smallest amount of resources (memory, CPU) and be able to run in a microcontroller. The algorithm has been designed and coded following specific conditions and specifications. The system has been tested on real weather data gathered from static weather stations and onboard during a test trip. The efficiency of the system has been proven through various error metrics

Old domains in the South Adria plate and their relationship with the West Hellenic front

The compactness and continuity of the Apulia carbonate platform, outcropping on the Salento penin-sula, contrasts with the structural complexity that developed during the Mesozoic\u2013Miocene in the mostsouthern region, which was later affected by the Neogenic compression of the Calabrian and HellenicChains. Although the north-eastern margin of the Apulia carbonate platform has been clearly definedby seismic profiles in the South Adriatic basin, the identification of the southern platform margin andthe transition between the Apulia and Pre-Apulia units are more difficult. Our analysis, based on seismicfacies interpretation, suggests a complex trend of a reefal margin between the carbonate platform and anewly recognized deep basin, herein called as the South Apulia basin. This margin transversely crossesthe Otranto Channel from the Apulian coast, where it outcrops, to the Albanian/Greek coasts, where theplatform sinks below the Albanian/Hellenic Chain. The South Apulia basin originated from an extensionalphase that was probably active during the Jurassic. Furthermore, this pelagic sequence depicts a troughthat was almost partially separating the Apulia from the Pre-Apulia units, these last being widely exposedon the Ionian islands of Greece.The alternation of pelagic and differently evolved carbonate platform domains of the South Adria plateaffected the westward migration of the Hellenic Arc quite significantly. The thinner fractured foreland,which is characterized by pelagic sequences, is more suitable for underthrusting the chain, as does theSouth Apulia basin below the Corf\uf9 external front. In contrast, the thicker foreland sectors, which areassociated with the carbonate platform, resist flexural subsidence, similar to the Apulia and Pre-Apuliacarbonate platform domains. At a certain location, the thick, less-heaving foreland, which is resistantto subsiding, was overcome by compressional stress and thrusted as the Apulia units in the Karaborunpeninsula/Sazani isle. In the Paxos island, the carbonate platform has been uplifted by a salt diapir thatwas triggered by the Hellenic compression.The Cephalonia system cuts the Hellenic Chain with right transpressional tectonics, in response to thedifferent buoyancies of the foreland sectors to the westernmost prolongation of the North Anatolia Fault.While on the northern sector, the front of the chain currently has stopped to the east of the Apulia car-bonate platform, on the southern sector, the Ionian oceanic foreland is subducting below the Pre-Apuliaunits, a previous foreland of the Ionian units. This shifting of the Hellenic front through the Cephaloniasystem (from the eastern margin of the Apulia carbonate platform to the western margin of the Pre-Apulia zone) has caused an apparent horizontal displacement that is greater than the actual throw of theoverriding sequences

Analysis of global navigation satellite system data along the Southern Gas Corridor and estimate of the expected displacements

In the present paper, we analyze the final part of the Southern Gas Corridor, a route highlighted in the European energy security and energy union strategies. This route crosses one of the most seismically active zones of theMediterranean with several recognized crustal-scale seismogenic sources. We focus on the possibility of identifying the areas where critical differential motions could be expected along the route,which will be occupied by the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, over the nominal pipeline life span of 50 yr.We analyze the available global navigation satellite system data and compare the results to the deformation patterns of the most significant faults affecting the area.We interpolated the sparsely available velocity vectors and calculated strain rate information, both considering the region as a continuum and by applying an original algorithmthat allows the linear interpolation within individual blocks. The blocks are characterized by a relatively homogenous deformational behavior, or a specific tectonic setting, independently upon the neighboring ones. The results of the two methods are then compared by calculating the maximum displacement that would cumulate in the next 50 yr of the pipeline lifespan and the differential displacements that could cause possible bending phenomena to the pipeline structure. The methodological approach followed in this research could be applied to other infrastructures to identify the segments prone to localized deformation because of interseismic tectonic loading