125 research outputs found

    Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis for First-Order Monte Carlo Simulations: A Technical Note

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    AbstractObjectivesMonte Carlo microsimulations have gained increasing popularity in decision-analytic modeling because they can incorporate discrete events. Although deterministic sensitivity analyses are essential for interpretation of results, it remains difficult to combine these alongside Monte Carlo simulations in standard modeling packages without enormous time investment. Our purpose was to facilitate one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis of TreeAge Markov state-transition models requiring first-order Monte Carlo simulations.Methods and ResultsUsing TreeAge Pro Suite 2007 and Microsoft Visual Basic for EXCEL, we constructed a generic script that enables one to perform automated deterministic one-way sensitivity analyses in EXCEL employing microsimulation models. In addition, we constructed a generic EXCEL-worksheet that allows for use of the script with little programming knowledge.ConclusionsLinking TreeAge Pro Suite 2007 and Visual Basic enables the performance of deterministic sensitivity analyses of first-order Monte Carlo simulations. There are other potentially interesting applications for automated analysis

    Unveiling Soft Gamma-Ray Repeaters with INTEGRAL

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    Thanks to INTEGRAL's long exposures of the Galactic Plane, the two brightest Soft Gamma-Ray Repeaters, SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14, have been monitored and studied in detail for the first time at hard-X/soft gamma rays. This has produced a wealth of new scientific results, which we will review here. Since SGR 1806-20 was particularly active during the last two years, more than 300 short bursts have been observed with INTEGRAL. and their characteristics have been studied with unprecedented sensitivity in the 15-200 keV range. A hardness-intensity anticorrelation within the bursts has been discovered and the overall Number-Intensity distribution of the bursts has been determined. In addition, a particularly active state, during which ~100 bursts were emitted in ~10 minutes, has been observed on October 5 2004, indicating that the source activity was rapidly increasing. This eventually led to the Giant Flare of December 27th 2004, for which a possible soft gamma-ray (>80 keV) early afterglow has been detected. The deep observations allowed us to discover the persistent emission in hard X-rays (20-150 keV) from 1806-20 and 1900+14, the latter being in a quiescent state, and to directly compare the spectral characteristics of all Magnetars (two SGRs and three Anomalous X-ray Pulsars) detected with INTEGRAL.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, Presented at the conference "Isolated Neutron Stars: from the Surface to the Interior", London, UK, 24-28 April 200

    The first multi-wavelength campaign of AXP 4U 0142+61 from radio to hard X-rays

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    For the first time a quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign has been performed on an Anomalous X-ray Pulsar from the radio to the hard X-ray band. 4U 0142+61 was an INTEGRAL target for 1 Ms in July 2005. During these observations it was also observed in the X-ray band with Swift and RXTE, in the optical and NIR with Gemini North and in the radio with the WSRT. In this paper we present the source-energy distribution. The spectral results obtained in the individual wave bands do not connect smoothly; apparently components of different origin contribute to the total spectrum. Remarkable is that the INTEGRAL hard X-ray spectrum (power-law index 0.79 +/- 0.10) is now measured up to an energy of ~230 keV with no indication of a spectral break. Extrapolation of the INTEGRAL power-law spectrum to lower energies passes orders of magnitude underneath the NIR and optical fluxes, as well as the low ~30 microJy (2 sigma) upper limit in the radio band.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure. To be published in the proceedings of the conference "Isolated Neutron Stars: from the Interior to the Surface" (April 24-28, 2006, London, UK), eds. S. Zane, R. Turolla and D. Pag

    Preventive Antibacterial Therapy in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Randomized Controlled Trial

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    BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is a major risk factor of death after acute stroke. In a mouse model, preventive antibacterial therapy with moxifloxacin not only prevents the development of post-stroke infections, it also reduces mortality, and improves neurological outcome significantly. In this study we investigate whether this approach is effective in stroke patients. METHODS: Preventive ANtibacterial THERapy in acute Ischemic Stroke (PANTHERIS) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in 80 patients with severe, non-lacunar, ischemic stroke (NIHSS>11) in the middle cerebral artery (MCA) territory. Patients received either intravenous moxifloxacin (400 mg daily) or placebo for 5 days starting within 36 hours after stroke onset. Primary endpoint was infection within 11 days. Secondary endpoints included neurological outcome, survival, development of stroke-induced immunodepression, and induction of bacterial resistance. FINDINGS: On intention-to treat analysis (79 patients), the infection rate at day 11 in the moxifloxacin treated group was 15.4% compared to 32.5% in the placebo treated group (p = 0.114). On per protocol analysis (n = 66), moxifloxacin significantly reduced infection rate from 41.9% to 17.1% (p = 0.032). Stroke associated infections were associated with a lower survival rate. In this study, neurological outcome and survival were not significantly influenced by treatment with moxifloxacin. Frequency of fluoroquinolone resistance in both treatment groups did not differ. On logistic regression analysis, treatment arm as well as the interaction between treatment arm and monocytic HLA-DR expression (a marker for immunodepression) at day 1 after stroke onset was independently and highly predictive for post-stroke infections. INTERPRETATION: PANTHERIS suggests that preventive administration of moxifloxacin is superior in reducing infections after severe non-lacunar ischemic stroke compared to placebo. In addition, the results emphasize the pivotal role of immunodepression in developing post-stroke infections. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN74386719

    An analytical performance model for active imaging systems including slant-path applications

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    We have implemented the approach for modeling the target acquisition performance of active imaging systems (gated viewing) introduced by the US Army Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate (NVESD) and extended it to slant-path scenarios. For slant laser pulse propagation paths there are two important physical effects which have to be taken into account: the height dependency of both the atmospheric turbulence strength and the atmospheric extinction. The influence of these modifications on sensor performance has been investigated. Two theoretical daytime profiles for the atmospheric turbulence strength were considered and own measurements of Cn2 are presented
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