Growth in densely populated Asia: implications for primary product exporters

Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section

Hypercomplex Integrable Systems

In this paper we study hypercomplex manifolds in four dimensions. Rather than using an approach based on differential forms, we develop a dual approach using vector fields. The condition on these vector fields may then be interpreted as Lax equations, exhibiting the integrability properties of such manifolds. A number of different field equations for such hypercomplex manifolds are derived, one of which is in Cauchy-Kovaleskaya form which enables a formal general solution to be given. Various other properties of the field equations and their solutions are studied, such as their symmetry properties and the associated hierarchy of conservation laws.Comment: Latex file, 19 page

Progression of diabetes retinal status within community screening programmes and potential implications for screening intervals

Objective This study aimed to follow the natural progression of retinal changes in patients with diabetes. Such information should inform decisions with regard to the screening intervals for such patients Research Design and Methods An observational study was undertaken linking the data from seven diabetes retinal screening programmes across the UK for retinal grading results between 2005 and 2012. Patients with absent or background retinopathy were followed up for progression to the endpoints referable retinopathy, and treatable retinopathy (proliferative retinopathy). Results In total 354,549 patients were observed for up to four years during which 16,196 progressed to referable retinopathy. Of patients with no retinopathy in either eye for two successive screening episodes at least 12 months apart between 0.3 (95% confidence interval 0.3-0.8)% and 1.3 (1.0-1.6)% progressed to referable retinopathy and rates of treatable eye disease were less than 0.3% at two years. The corresponding progression rates for patients with bilateral background retinopathy in successive screening episodes was 13-29% and up to 4% respectively in the different programmes. Conclusions It may be possible to risk stratify patients according to baseline retinal criteria into low and high risk of progressing to proliferative retinopathy. Screening intervals for such diverse groups of patients could safely be modified according to their risk

‘Forgotten Europeans’: transnational minority activism in the age of European integration

YesThis article examines transnational activism by coalitions of national minorities in Europe from the early 20th century to the present, setting this within the broader ‘security versus democracy dilemma’ that continues to surround international discussions on minority rights. Specifically, we analyse two organisations – the European Nationalities Congress (1925–1938) and the Federal Union of European Nationalities (1949–) – which, while linked, have never been subject to a detailed comparison based on primary sources. In so far as comparisons do exist, they present these bodies in highly negative terms, as mere fronts for inherently particularistic nationalisms that threaten political stability, state integrity and peace. Our more in‐depth analysis provides a fresh and more nuanced perspective: it shows that, in both cases, concepts of European integration and ‘unity in diversity’ have provided the motivating goals and frameworks for transnational movements advocating common rights for all minorities and seeking positive interaction with the interstate world