Voting for Secular Parties in the Middle East: Evidence from the 2014 General Elections in Post-Revolutionary Tunisia

Arab uprisings paved the way for democratic elections in the Middle East and North Africa region. Yet countries in this region, except for Tunisia, were not able to maintain further democratization. Tunisia, regardless of economic turbulence and security problems, managed to hold its second parliamentary elections in October 2014, and Ennahda, the party of the popular Islamist movement, could not keep mass support. A large number of studies have examined the rise of the Islamist parties as their electoral success in the post- Arab Uprisings elections by focusing on their organizational strength as well as their social services. However, the social basis of secular parties in the region has been overlooked in the democratization literature. In this study, four competing arguments, religious–secularism cleavage, nostalgia for the old regime, negative campaign targeting Islamists, and retrospective voting, are considered as the key determinants of citizens’ party choices. By using original election survey data, this study asserts that secular Nidaa Tounes derived its support from secular people, who, at the same time, sympathized with the old regime and disfavoured Islamists

In election years, ballot box success for governors also helps presidential candidates, but not the other way around

The US is not just electing a new president in 2016 – in 12 states voters will also be able to choose their next governor. In new research, Amuitz Garmendia Madariaga and H. Ege Ozen examine how presidential and gubernatorial candidates’ electoral fortunes are intertwined. They find that voters are more likely to cast a straight ticket ballots in presidential election years, and that successful gubernatorial candidates actually provide a vote boost for presidential candidates at the state level, not the other way around

Looking for two-sided coattail effects: Integrated parties and multilevel elections in the U.S.

In the context of the American federalism, integrated parties provide the necessary coordination mechanism for state and federal politicians to be electorally successful. This argument rests on the assumption that voters are able to observe the benefits of voting a straight ticket. We test this individual level explanation by using the CCES data. Moreover, at the aggregate level, we measure the so-called ‘two-sided’ coattail effects in concurrent multilevel elections in the U.S. since 1960. By using a simultaneous equation model, we estimate the reciprocal relationship between presidential and gubernatorial vote shares at the state level. While we find no consistent presidential coattails, we reveal robust and significant gubernatorial coattail effects on state-level presidential vote, underscoring the role of multilevel forces within parties in democratic federations

Incumbency advantage is not restricted to established majoritarian systems

To date, most scholarly works have focused on incumbency advantage in the US and consider how it operates in majoritarian contexts. In a recent paper, Mert Moral, H. Ege Ozen and Efe Tokdemir drew on the case of Turkey to explore whether the incumbency operates in multi member district systems. They found that although it is not as marked as in the US context, considerable incumbency advantage persisted in the more proportional system

Mobilizing for what? Polarized citizens and electoral turnout in transitioning Tunisia

In countries that have recently transitioned to democracy, what factors most drive citizens to mobilize and participate in early elections? Many comparative studies on democratization and elections stress the vital importance of early elections in new democracies – with voter turnout inexorably linked to a democracy’s long-term stability and legitimacy – however, much of this literature focuses on aggregate rather than individual-level behaviour, and very little targets the Middle East/North Africa region. This study closely examines individual voting behaviour in democratizing Tunisia’s critical second election in 2014. We argue that amidst great uncertainty, the polarizing issues of national and political identity created systematic disparities in participation – with the most ideologically polarized citizens/social groups more likely to vote. Using original data from a survey conducted in Tunisia right after its November 2014 elections, we find that Tunisians were sharply divided in their support for democracy, the previous regime, and Islamic governance. Specifically, Tunisians who were more ideologically polarized along its secular-Islamist divide and those more satisfied with the new democratic system were more likely to vote – overall suggesting somewhat uneven electoral participation in this critical election and, therefore, the potential for the kind of instability conducive to democratic breakdown

‘Welcoming’ Guests: The Role of Ideational and Contextual Factors in Public Perceptions About Refugees and Attitudes about Their Integration

In this study, we aim to explore the ideational and contextual sources of perceptions about refugees. Contrary to many studies focusing on the interaction with and integration of refugees in developed countries, we examine the effect of social identity and refugee exposure on the perception of refugees in Turkey, which pose a substantive case with a background of ethnic conflict and scarce resources. We contend that social identities provide individuals with cues; however, we argue that identity type and its salience are key to understanding in-group vs. out-group formation processes, hence the perceptions about refugees. Moreover, we argue that socioeconomic status affects an individual’s support for refugee integration, as it challenges the existing status quo of access to scarce resources. Our findings challenge the conventional wisdom in migration studies by employing an original face-to-face survey among over 1,100 respondents in three cities (Istanbul, Diyarbakir, and Gaziantep) in Turkey. We find that those prioritizing national vs. religious identities reveal different levels of perceived threat. Additionally, we show that those belonging to lower-income socioeconomic groups are less supportive of refugee integration when the presence of refugees sets the ground for competition for economic and social resources where they reside

‘Wars of others’: National Cleavages and Attitudes Toward External Conflicts

Why do individuals sympathize with others’ wars, an antecedent of the decision to become a foreign fighter? By collecting original public opinion data from Lebanon, in 2015, and Turkey in 2017, about the actors of conflict in Syria, we test the argument that an ethno-religious cleavage at home shapes the proclivity of individuals to support others’ wars. Individuals may perceive a war abroad as endangering political and social balance of power at home – and hence own survival. Therefore, when transnational identities map onto a national cleavage, as in the Sunni–Shia cleavage in Lebanon, and Turk – Kurd cleavage in Turkey, individuals are more disposed to show sympathy for others’ wars both to help their kin and to protect the balance of power at home. Our findings imply that efforts to end the trend toward citizens becoming foreign fighters must start at home by mending the relations between ethnic and religious groups

Egypt’s 2011–2012 parliamentary elections: Voting for religious vs. secular democracy?

This study investigates whether individuals’ attitudes towards democracy and secular politics have any influence on voting behavior in Egypt. Based on data from a survey conducted immediately after the Egyptian parliamentary elections in January 2012, this study finds that Egyptians’ attitudes towards democratic governance were quite negative around the parliamentary elections, yet Egyptians still endorsed democracy as the ideal political system for their country. However, empirical findings suggest that support for democracy has a limited impact on electoral results. On the other hand, the main division in Egyptian society around the first free and fair parliamentary elections was the religious-secular cleavage. As people support secular politics more, they become significantly less likely to vote for Islamist parties. These results illustrate that preferences in regard to the type of democracy – either a liberal and secular or a religious democracy – were the main determinant of the historic 2012 elections in Egypt