The Optimal Uncertainty Algorithm in the Mystic Framework

We have recently proposed a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which UQ objectives and assumption/information set are brought into the forefront, providing a framework for the communication and comparison of UQ results. In particular, this framework does not implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions nor does it repudiate relevant information. This framework, which we call Optimal Uncertainty Quantification (OUQ), is based on the observation that given a set of assumptions and information, there exist bounds on uncertainties obtained as values of optimization problems and that these bounds are optimal. It provides a uniform environment for the optimal solution of the problems of validation, certification, experimental design, reduced order modeling, prediction, extrapolation, all under aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, and even though under general conditions they have finite-dimensional reductions, they must often be solved numerically. This general algorithmic framework for OUQ has been implemented in the mystic optimization framework. We describe this implementation, and demonstrate its use in the context of the Caltech surrogate model for hypervelocity impact

Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call Optimal Uncertainty Quantification (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on uncertainties: these are obtained as extreme values of well-defined optimization problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show that under general conditions, they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an application, we develop Optimal Concentration Inequalities (OCI) of Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, contrary to the classical sensitivity analysis paradigm, these results show that uncertainties in input parameters do not necessarily propagate to output uncertainties. In addition, a general algorithmic framework is developed for OUQ and is tested on the Caltech surrogate model for hypervelocity impact, suggesting the feasibility of the framework for important complex systems

Optimal uncertainty quantification for legacy data observations of Lipschitz functions

We consider the problem of providing optimal uncertainty quantification (UQ) --- and hence rigorous certification --- for partially-observed functions. We present a UQ framework within which the observations may be small or large in number, and need not carry information about the probability distribution of the system in operation. The UQ objectives are posed as optimization problems, the solutions of which are optimal bounds on the quantities of interest; we consider two typical settings, namely parameter sensitivities (McDiarmid diameters) and output deviation (or failure) probabilities. The solutions of these optimization problems depend non-trivially (even non-monotonically and discontinuously) upon the specified legacy data. Furthermore, the extreme values are often determined by only a few members of the data set; in our principal physically-motivated example, the bounds are determined by just 2 out of 32 data points, and the remainder carry no information and could be neglected without changing the final answer. We propose an analogue of the simplex algorithm from linear programming that uses these observations to offer efficient and rigorous UQ for high-dimensional systems with high-cardinality legacy data. These findings suggest natural methods for selecting optimal (maximally informative) next experiments.Comment: 38 page

Compression, inversion, and approximate PCA of dense kernel matrices at near-linear computational complexity

Dense kernel matrices Θ∈R^(N×N) obtained from point evaluations of a covariance function G at locations {x_i}1≤i≤N arise in statistics, machine learning, and numerical analysis. For covariance functions that are Green's functions elliptic boundary value problems and approximately equally spaced sampling points, we show how to identify a subset S⊂{1,…,N}×{1,…,N}, with #S=O(Nlog(N)log^d(N/ϵ)), such that the zero fill-in block-incomplete Cholesky decomposition of Θ_(i,j)1_((i,j)∈S) is an ϵ-approximation of Θ. This block-factorisation can provably be obtained in O(Nlog^2(N)(log(1/ϵ)+log^2(N))^(4d+1)) complexity in time. Numerical evidence further suggests that element-wise Cholesky decomposition with the same ordering constitutes an O(Nlog^2(N)log^(2d)(N/ϵ)) solver. The algorithm only needs to know the spatial configuration of the x_i and does not require an analytic representation of G. Furthermore, an approximate PCA with optimal rate of convergence in the operator norm can be easily read off from this decomposition. Hence, by using only subsampling and the incomplete Cholesky decomposition, we obtain at nearly linear complexity the compression, inversion and approximate PCA of a large class of covariance matrices. By inverting the order of the Cholesky decomposition we also obtain a near-linear-time solver for elliptic PDEs

Multiscale Partition of Unity

We introduce a new Partition of Unity Method for the numerical homogenization of elliptic partial differential equations with arbitrarily rough coefficients. We do not restrict to a particular ansatz space or the existence of a finite element mesh. The method modifies a given partition of unity such that optimal convergence is achieved independent of oscillation or discontinuities of the diffusion coefficient. The modification is based on an orthogonal decomposition of the solution space while preserving the partition of unity property. This precomputation involves the solution of independent problems on local subdomains of selectable size. We deduce quantitative error estimates for the method that account for the chosen amount of localization. Numerical experiments illustrate the high approximation properties even for 'cheap' parameter choices.Comment: Proceedings for Seventh International Workshop on Meshfree Methods for Partial Differential Equations, 18 pages, 3 figure

Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on uncertainties: these are obtained as values of well-defined optimization problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show that under general conditions they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an application, we develop \emph{Optimal Concentration Inequalities} (OCI) of Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, these results show that uncertainties in input parameters, which propagate to output uncertainties in the classical sensitivity analysis paradigm, may fail to do so if the transfer functions (or probability distributions) are imperfectly known. We show how, for hierarchical structures, this phenomenon may lead to the non-propagation of uncertainties or information across scales. In addition, a general algorithmic framework is developed for OUQ and is tested on the Caltech surrogate model for hypervelocity impact and on the seismic safety assessment of truss structures, suggesting the feasibility of the framework for important complex systems. The introduction of this paper provides both an overview of the paper and a self-contained mini-tutorial about basic concepts and issues of UQ.Comment: 90 pages. Accepted for publication in SIAM Review (Expository Research Papers). See SIAM Review for higher quality figure

Flux norm approach to finite dimensional homogenization approximations with non-separated scales and high contrast

We consider divergence-form scalar elliptic equations and vectorial equations for elasticity with rough ($L^\infty(\Omega)$, $\Omega \subset \R^d$) coefficients $a(x)$ that, in particular, model media with non-separated scales and high contrast in material properties. We define the flux norm as the $L^2$ norm of the potential part of the fluxes of solutions, which is equivalent to the usual $H^1$-norm. We show that in the flux norm, the error associated with approximating, in a properly defined finite-dimensional space, the set of solutions of the aforementioned PDEs with rough coefficients is equal to the error associated with approximating the set of solutions of the same type of PDEs with smooth coefficients in a standard space (e.g., piecewise polynomial). We refer to this property as the {\it transfer property}. A simple application of this property is the construction of finite dimensional approximation spaces with errors independent of the regularity and contrast of the coefficients and with optimal and explicit convergence rates. This transfer property also provides an alternative to the global harmonic change of coordinates for the homogenization of elliptic operators that can be extended to elasticity equations. The proofs of these homogenization results are based on a new class of elliptic inequalities which play the same role in our approach as the div-curl lemma in classical homogenization.Comment: Accepted for publication in Archives for Rational Mechanics and Analysi

Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page