Institutions and the transition to adulthood: Implications for fertility tempo in low-fertility settings

The number of countries experiencing very low fertility has been rising in recent years, garnering increasing academic, political and media attention. There is now widespread academic agreement that the postponement of fertility is a major contributing factor in the very low levels of fertility that have occurred, and yet most policy discussions have been devoted to increasing the numbers of children women have. We discuss factors in three institutions--the educational system, the labour market and the housing market--that may inadvertently have led to childbearing postponement. We highlight important components of the timing of childbearing, including its changing place within the transition to adulthood across countries and the significance of the demands of childbearing versus childrearing. Using illustrations from Europe, North America, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, we argue that the following all lead to younger childbearing: 1) an open education system whereby it is relatively easy to return to school after having dropped out for a while; 2) a shorter, smoother, easier school-to-work transition; 3) easier re-entry into the labour market after having taken time out for childrearing or any other reason; 4) greater capability of integrating childrearing into a career; 5) easier ability to obtain a mortgage with a moderately small down payment, moderately low interest rate and a long time period over which to repay the loan; and 6) easier ability to rent a dwelling unit at an affordable price. Conversely, reversing any or all of these factors would lead, other things being equal, to postponement of childbearing.

Untersuchungen zu Phasen im System Nickel/Silicium/Halogen

Nickel-Silicidphasen wurden auf neuen Synthesewegen bei relativ niedrigen Temperaturen und kurzen Reaktionszeiten präpariert. Die Belastung von dispersem Metall mit Siliciumtetrachlorid liefert Produkte, die mit den thermodynamischen Berechnungen korrelieren. Bei der direkten Umsetzung von Nickelhalogeniden mit Silicium beeinflussen die Versuchsbedingungen wesentlich die Zusammensetzung der resultierenden Phasengemische. Durch Temperungen reduziert sich der Bestand an Silicidphasen. Die Umsetzung von Nickelchlorid und Silicium gelang erstmals auch in einer KCl/LiCl-Salzschmelze als Reaktionsmedium, wodurch sich thermodynamisch vorhersagbare Silicidphasen erhalten lassen. In einigen Fällen deuten die Ergebnisse auf die Bildung halogenhaltiger, bei Raumtemperatur metastabiler Silicidphasen hin. Zum Reaktionsmechanismus werden zwei über die Oxidationsstufe +2 des Siliciums verlaufende Routen diskutiert

Ciclos Internacionais de Negócios: Uma Análise de Mudança de Regime Markoviano para Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos

The aim of this paper is to develop a business cycle analysis for Brazil, Argentina and the United States, emphasizing the regime switches that occurred throughout the economic fluctuations experienced by these countries. Recent studies on business cycles have favored the international business cycles approach. This work intends to test the hypothesis of a common cycle that could contemporaneously affect these countries. The methodology used is the MS-VAR - Markov switching vector autoregressions . Firstly, individual univariate specifications are estimated for the period from 1900 to 2000 and the results compared to stylized facts characteristic of each country. A multivariate model is formulated afterwards to verify the hypothesis of a common cycle, which, in turn, is perceived as simultaneous changes in the stochastic process of growth of these countries. Finally, the results suggest that the evidences favoring the common cycle are little robust. The estimated contemporaneous correlations show rather modest values. Particularly, there are significant differences in the cycles of Brazil, Argentina and the United States, having each one of theses countries its own characteristics and behavior.

Investigação da Mobilidade de Capitais da Paridade Coberta de Juros com Modelos de Parâmetros Fixos e Variáveis

Este artigo tem como objetivo investigar e estimar o grau de integração financeira do Brasil com os mercados de capitais internacionais no período de 1990 a 2004. O conceito de integração financeira fraca é adotado por meio da relação da paridade coberta de juros (PCJ). Essa condição de não-arbitragem é estimada, analisando comparativamente os resultados dos modelos de parâmetros fixos e parâmetros variáveis no tempo. A abordagem de parâmetros fixos foi realizada aplicando a metodologia de cointegração e de mecanismo de correção de erros ou mínimos quadrados ordinários. A análise da instabilidade nos parâmetros da PCJ é tratada por meio do filtro de Kalman a qual visa identificar a trajetória do grau de mobilidade ao longo do tempo. Os resultados indicaram que existe um grau de integração financeira intermediário no sentido fraco. Os desvios da PCJ indicaram a presença de barreiras à mobilidade de capital e à existência de um ganho excedente livre de risco para quem investir em títulos brasileiros em relação ao investimento em títulos americanos. A aplicação do filtro de Kalman na equação da PCJ mostrou evidências de variação nos parâmetros, com mudanças bruscas como graduais ao longo do tempo. A PCJ mostrou uma mudança no início de 1991 que pode estar associado ao período de abertura da conta de capital brasileira.Integração Financeira, Condição de Paridade de Juros Coberta, Cointegração, Quebra Estrutural e Filtro de Kalman.

Measuring Dynamic Patterns in the Structure of Economies

The objective of this study was to explore a new method of analyzing the performance of substate economies. A major limitation of conventional analyses of economic diversity and growth is the reliance on static measures of economic structure. Such measures do not capture the patterns of growth dynamics or structural change the region may be experiencing. This paper discusses a new measure of dynamic economic diversity and explores its relationship to economic performance. The measure is a statistical index that reflects the degree to which employment in a county\u27s industries move together over time. The more the industries\u27 employment levels move together, the higher the value of the index. A high index indicates a high degree of regional economic integration