On Predicting the Solar Cycle using Mean-Field Models

We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either stochastic or deterministic processes. We analyse the implications for predictability in both of these situations by considering two separate solar dynamo models. The first model represents a stochastically-perturbed flux transport dynamo. Here even very weak stochastic perturbations can give rise to significant modulation in the activity cycle. This modulation leads to a loss of predictability. In the second model, we neglect stochastic effects and assume that generation of magnetic field in the Sun can be described by a fully deterministic nonlinear mean-field model -- this is a best case scenario for prediction. We designate the output from this deterministic model (with parameters chosen to produce chaotically modulated cycles) as a target timeseries that subsequent deterministic mean-field models are required to predict. Long-term prediction is impossible even if a model that is correct in all details is utilised in the prediction. Furthermore, we show that even short-term prediction is impossible if there is a small discrepancy in the input parameters from the fiducial model. This is the case even if the predicting model has been tuned to reproduce the output of previous cycles. Given the inherent uncertainties in determining the transport coefficients and nonlinear responses for mean-field models, we argue that this makes predicting the solar cycle using the output from such models impossible.Comment: 22 Pages, 5 Figures, Preprint accepted for publication in Ap

In--out intermittency in PDE and ODE models

We find concrete evidence for a recently discovered form of intermittency, referred to as in--out intermittency, in both PDE and ODE models of mean field dynamos. This type of intermittency (introduced in Ashwin et al 1999) occurs in systems with invariant submanifolds and, as opposed to on--off intermittency which can also occur in skew product systems, it requires an absence of skew product structure. By this we mean that the dynamics on the attractor intermittent to the invariant manifold cannot be expressed simply as the dynamics on the invariant subspace forcing the transverse dynamics; the transverse dynamics will alter that tangential to the invariant subspace when one is far enough away from the invariant manifold. Since general systems with invariant submanifolds are not likely to have skew product structure, this type of behaviour may be of physical relevance in a variety of dynamical settings. The models employed here to demonstrate in--out intermittency are axisymmetric mean--field dynamo models which are often used to study the observed large scale magnetic variability in the Sun and solar-type stars. The occurrence of this type of intermittency in such models may be of interest in understanding some aspects of such variabilities.Comment: To be published in Chaos, June 2001, also available at http://www.eurico.web.co

Generalized Boltzmann Equation for Lattice Gas Automata

In this paper, for the first time a theory is formulated that predicts velocity and spatial correlations between occupation numbers that occur in lattice gas automata violating semi-detailed balance. Starting from a coupled BBGKY hierarchy for the $n$-particle distribution functions, cluster expansion techniques are used to derive approximate kinetic equations. In zeroth approximation the standard nonlinear Boltzmann equation is obtained; the next approximation yields the ring kinetic equation, similar to that for hard sphere systems, describing the time evolution of pair correlations. As a quantitative test we calculate equal time correlation functions in equilibrium for two models that violate semi-detailed balance. One is a model of interacting random walkers on a line, the other one is a two-dimensional fluid type model on a triangular lattice. The numerical predictions agree very well with computer simulations.Comment: 31 pages LaTeX, 12 uuencoded tar-compressed Encapsulated PostScript figures (`psfig' macro), hardcopies available on request, 78kb + 52k

Simulations of small-scale turbulent dynamo

We report an extensive numerical study of the small-scale turbulent dynamo at large magnetic Prandtl numbers Pm. A Pm scan is given for the model case of low-Reynolds-number turbulence. We concentrate on three topics: magnetic-energy spectra and saturation levels, the structure of the field lines, and the field-strength distribution. The main results are (1) the folded structure (direction reversals at the resistive scale, field lines curved at the scale of the flow) persists from the kinematic to the nonlinear regime; (2) the field distribution is self-similar and appears to be lognormal during the kinematic regime and exponential in the saturated state; and (3) the bulk of the magnetic energy is at the resistive scale in the kinematic regime and remains there after saturation, although the spectrum becomes much shallower. We propose an analytical model of saturation based on the idea of partial two-dimensionalization of the velocity gradients with respect to the local direction of the magnetic folds. The model-predicted spectra are in excellent agreement with numerical results. Comparisons with large-Re, moderate-Pm runs are carried out to confirm the relevance of these results. New features at large Re are elongation of the folds in the nonlinear regime from the viscous scale to the box scale and the presence of an intermediate nonlinear stage of slower-than-exponential magnetic-energy growth accompanied by an increase of the resistive scale and partial suppression of the kinetic-energy spectrum in the inertial range. Numerical results for the saturated state do not support scale-by-scale equipartition between magnetic and kinetic energies, with a definite excess of magnetic energy at small scales. A physical picture of the saturated state is proposed.Comment: aastex using emulateapj; 32 pages, final published version; a pdf file (4Mb) of the paper containing better-quality versions of figs. 5, 8, 12, 15, 17 is available from http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/as629 or by email upon request

The case for a distributed solar dynamo shaped by near-surface shear

Arguments for and against the widely accepted picture of a solar dynamo being seated in the tachocline are reviewed and alternative ideas concerning dynamos operating in the bulk of the convection zone, or perhaps even in the near-surface shear layer, are discussed. Based on the angular velocities of magnetic tracers it is argued that the observations are compatible with a distributed dynamo that may be strongly shaped by the near-surface shear layer. Direct simulations of dynamo action in a slab with turbulence and shear are presented to discuss filling factor and tilt angles of bipolar regions in such a model.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, Astrophys. J. 625 (scheduled for the 1 June 2005 issue

Longitude

International audienc

Longitude

International audienc

Longitude

International audienc

Longitude

International audienc