Modelo de función de transferencia para pronosticar el precio del huevo blanco, 2000 – 2017

Egg is one of the most accessible and widely available protein sources in the market. The objective of this study was to develop a time series model to predict monthly nominal average white egg prices paid to the producer (AWEPP) in Mexico using transfer function models (TFM) and to evaluate their relation with nominal average rural sorghum prices (NARSP). The parameters and the predictions were estimated with the maximum likelihood method and were statistically appropriate and significant. The best TFM that represented the behavior of AWEPP was that of two autoregressive coefficients, three of moving average, two degrees of denominator r, one degree of numerator s, and one coefficient b. It was found that the NARSP has an influence on the AWEPP one month later, decreasing the original variance of the AWEPP from 0.01036 to 0.009771 with the transfer model. The TFM generates better predictions of the AWEPP than the SARIMA model, because it takes into account the temporal evolution of the NARSP obtaining estimates that are closer to reality, useful for planning and for decision-making in the poultry sector in the short and medium term.El huevo es una de las fuentes de proteína más accesible y con disponibilidad amplia en el mercado. El objetivo de este trabajo fue desarrollar un modelo de series de tiempo para pronosticar los precios nominales mensuales de huevo blanco pagados al productor en México (PPHBP) mediante modelos de función de transferencia (MFT) y evaluar su relación con los precios promedios rurales del sorgo (PPSRG). Los parámetros y las predicciones se estimaron con el método de máxima verosimilitud y fueron estadísticamente apropiadas y significativas. El mejor MFT que representó el comportamiento de los PPHBP fue el de dos coeficientes autorregresivos, tres de media móvil, dos grados de denominador “râ€, un grado de numerador “s†y un coeficiente “bâ€. Se encontró que el PPSRG impacta  un mes después en los PPHBP, disminuyendo la varianza original del PPHBP de 0.01036 a 0.009771 con el modelo de transferencia. El MFT genera mejores pronósticos de los PPHBP que el modelo SARIMA, debido a que el primero, toma en cuenta la evolución temporal del PPSRG logrando estimaciones más cercanas a la realidad, útiles para planificar y tomar decisiones en el sector avícola a corto y mediano plazo

VALORACIÓN ECONÓMICA DEL ACEITE DE COCINA DE DESECHO EN EL MUNICIPIO TEXCOCO, MÉXICO

By means of a stratified sampling, the total waste cooking oil (ACD) generated in the central zone of the municipality of Texcoco by the restaurant activity was calculated for the period April 2021 to March 2022, which was 394,564.41 L per year, with a variance of 87.65 units and a standard deviation of 9.36 L and a recovery percentage of 28. 05%, to subsequently apply the environmental valuation method “transfer of benefits” and estimate an economic value of the ACD considering the lowest and maximum market price of biodiesel (transfer good) which was $14.22 MNX and$18.22 MNX giving a value of $5,610,705.91 MNX and$7,188,963.55 MNX annually respectively.Finally, the economic value of the ACD was calculated considering the price that this product presented in the surveys applied in the sampling, which was $8.00 MNX/L, representing a value of$3,156,515.28 MNX annually.Por medio de un muestreo estratificado se calculó el total de aceite de cocina de desecho (ACD) generado en la zona centro del municipio de Texcoco por la actividad restaurantera, en el periodo abril 2021 a marzo 2022, que fue de 394,564.41 L anuales, con una varianza de 87.65 unidades y una desviación estándar de 9.36 L y un porcentaje de recuperación de 28.05%, para posteriormente aplicar el método de valoración ambiental “transferencia de beneficios” y estimar un valor económico del ACD considerando el precio de mercado más bajo y máximo del biodiesel (bien de transferencia) que fue $14.22 MNX y$18.22 MNX dando un valor de $5,610,705.91 MNX y$7,188,963.55 MNX anuales respectivamente.Finalmente se calculó el valor económico del ACD considerando el precio que este producto presentó en las encuestas aplicadas en el muestreo, el cual fue de $8.00 MNX/L, representando un valor de$3,156,515.28 MNX anuales

Optimization of a production unit of the dairy agroin-dustry: Chapingo dairy technology unit case

Objective: The optimization of a dairy production unit (UPL) was made by      using a mathematical programming model (PM). It is expected that by maximizing net income by at least 10%, the UPL will be more profitable than without optimized management. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis was carried out under the economic approach to agricultural production, considering 11 decision variables in the objective function (FO), subject to 20 restrictions. They were proposed based on the requirements of the demand for dairy by-products and the use of technical coefficients (input-output relationship). The sensitivity report was obtained using the excel® solver® and the shadow prices and reduced costs were analyzed. Results: Three scenarios were modeled, between the first and third scenario the income increased by $58,000.00 (41.02$63,840.00 (46.16%). Limitations on study/implications: Dairy food processing is an important industry in the developed and developing economies of the world. Improving the performance of dairy production units (UPL) as a strategic development instrument is necessary due to the current times in which we live. Findings/conclusions: Panela cheese obtained the highest shadow price of $72.85, which indicates that the UPL should concentrate on producing this type. It is concluded that the optimization of the UPL guarantees the efficient use of scarce resources and therefore generates a higher profit.Objective: To evaluate the optimization level of a dairy production unit (DPU) through a mathematical programming model (MP). It is expected that by maximizing net income by at least 10Design/Methodology/Approach: The analysis was carried out under the economic approach of agricultural production, taking into consideration 11 decision variables in the objective function (OF), which was subject to 20 constraints. The variables were based on the requirements of the demand for dairy by-products, using technical coefficients (input-output coefficient). Excel® Solver® was used to develop the sensitivity report and to analyze the shadow prices and reduced costs. Results: Three scenarios were modeled. Between the first and third scenario, the income increased to$58,000.00 (41.02%). Between the second and third scenario, the income increased to $63,840.00 (46.16Study Limitations/Implications: Dairy food processing is an important industry in the economies of the world. Findings/Conclusions: Panela cheese recorded the highest shadow price ($72.85), which indicates that the DPU should concentrate on this type of dairy product. In conclusion, the optimization of the DPU guarantees the efficient use of scarce resources and therefore generates a higher profit

Profitability of biogas production as a source of energy for tequila distilleries from the anaerobic treatment of tequila vinasses

Objective: To analyze the financial profitability of biogas production from tequila vinasse in an anaerobic packed-bed (AP) plant for the use of biogas as a substitute fuel for heavy fuel (fuel oil) in boilers of the tequila industry. Design/methodology/approach: First, financial information was collected for biogas production. Next, a traditional approach was utilized to evaluate investment projects for two reactor volumes, 7 m3 and 10 m3. Finally, profitability was determined by the following financial indicators: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR). Results: The study results indicate that biogas production is cost-effective from a reactor volume of 7 m3 and is more favorable when scaling up the process to 10 m3. These results were obtained for a volume of 7 m3 and 10 m3 at an update rate of 12% (NPV $780 376.70 and$5 062 685.22), (BCR $1.04 and$1.21), (IRR 14% and 26%), respectively. Study limitations /implications: The results are based on values achieved in a laboratory-scale AP plant with a capacity of 445 L, assuming that the yield and removal values of chemical oxygen demand (COD) are not modified by scaling the process to 7 m3 and 10 m3. Findings/conclusions: The findings demonstrate that using tequila vinasse to generate renewable energy for self-consumption in an AP anaerobic plant is profitable.Objective: To analyze the profitability of biogas production from tequila vinasses in an anaerobic packed bed reactor (PBR) plant to use biogas as substitute of heavy fuel (fuel oil) in boilers of the tequila industry.Design/methodology/approach: Financial information for biogas production was gathered; the methodology with the approach of investment project evaluation was used for two reactor volumes, 7 m3 and 10 m3, and the profitability was determined through the following financial indicators: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit-Cost Ratio (B/C R).Results: Biogas production is profitable starting from a reactor’s volume of 7 m3 and it is more favorable when the process is scaled to 10 m3. It was obtained for a volume of 7 m3 and 10 m3 at an updating rate of 12% (NPV $780 376.70 and$5 062 685.22), (B/C R $1.04 and$1.21), (IRR 14% and 26%).Limitations on study/implications: The results are based on values reached in a PBR plant at laboratory scale with a capacity of 445 L, assuming that the values of yield and removal of the chemical demand for oxygen (CDO) are not modified when scaling the process to 7 m3 and 10 m3.Findings/conclusions: Analysis of the results showed that the use of tequila vinasses to generate renewableenergy for auto-consumption in an anaerobic PBR plant is profitable

Factores determinantes de la adopción de riego tecnificado en La Laguna, México

En la actualidad, los recursos hídricos se encuentran más presionados en términos de cantidad y calidad debido al incremento de la demanda, así como de las prácticas de riego inadecuadas. El sector agrícola emplea la mayor parte del recurso disponible, por lo que es esencial hacer un uso eficiente del mismo. El empleo de sistemas de riego tecnificado se considera como una de las herramientas para incrementar la eficiencia, sin embargo su adopción en México aún es baja. El objetivo de esta investigación fue determinar los factores que afectan la adopción del riego tecnificado entre los agricultores de La Laguna mediante un modelo de regresión cualitativa (Logit). Los datos se recopilaron mediante una encuesta aplicada a 139 agricultores de La Laguna, México. El análisis estadístico se realizó utilizando el software SAS 9.3. Las variables incluidas en el modelo empleado explica el 85.3 % (R2 de McFadden = 0.853) de la variación en la adopción de riego tecnificado. Los resultados muestran una relación significativa entre la probabilidad de adopción y los siguientes factores: nivel educativo, conocimiento de programas gubernamentales, asistencia técnica y rendimiento. También se observó una relación significativa entre el ingreso neto obtenido por metro cúbico y la adopción de tecnología de riego. Para aumentar la adopción de este tipo de tecnología entre los productores agrícolas de La Laguna se sugiere incrementar la promoción de los apoyos gubernamentales, al igual que la asistencia técnica y educación sobre los beneficios de adoptar esta tecnología de riego

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

VALORACIÓN ECONÓMICA DEL ACEITE DE COCINA DE DESECHO EN EL MUNICIPIO TEXCOCO, MÉXICO

Por medio de un muestreo estratificado se calculó el total de aceite de cocina de desecho (ACD) generado en la zona centro del municipio de Texcoco por la actividad restaurantera, en el periodo abril 2021 a marzo 2022, que fue de 394,564.41 L anuales, con una varianza de 87.65 unidades y una desviación estándar de 9.36 L y un porcentaje de recuperación de 28.05%, para posteriormente aplicar el método de valoración ambiental “transferencia de beneficios” y estimar un valor económico del ACD considerando el precio de mercado más bajo y máximo del biodiesel (bien de transferencia) que fue $14.22 MNX y$18.22 MNX dando un valor de $5,610,705.91 MNX y$7,188,963.55 MNX anuales respectivamente. Finalmente se calculó el valor económico del ACD considerando el precio que este producto presentó en las encuestas aplicadas en el muestreo, el cual fue de $8.00 MNX/L, representando un valor de$3,156,515.28 MNX anuales