Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation

Development, testing and example applications of the pattern-scaling approach for generating future climate change projections are reported here, with a focus on a particular software application called “ClimGen”. A number of innovations have been implemented, including using exponential and logistic functions of global-mean temperature to represent changes in local precipitation and cloud cover, and interpolation from climate model grids to a finer grid while taking into account land-sea contrasts in the climate change patterns. Of particular significance is a new approach for incorporating changes in the inter-annual variability of monthly precipitation simulated by climate models. This is achieved by diagnosing simulated changes in the shape of the gamma distribution of monthly precipitation totals, applying the pattern-scaling approach to estimate changes in the shape parameter under a future scenario, and then perturbing sequences of observed precipitation anomalies so that their distribution changes according to the projected change in the shape parameter. The approach cannot represent changes to the structure of climate timeseries (e.g. changed autocorrelation or teleconnection patterns) were they to occur, but is shown here to be more successful at representing changes in low precipitation extremes than previous pattern-scaling methods

Degenerate distributions in complex Langevin dynamics: one-dimensional QCD at finite chemical potential

We demonstrate analytically that complex Langevin dynamics can solve the sign problem in one-dimensional QCD in the thermodynamic limit. In particular, it is shown that the contributions from the complex and highly oscillating spectral density of the Dirac operator to the chiral condensate are taken into account correctly. We find an infinite number of classical fixed points of the Langevin flow in the thermodynamic limit. The correct solution originates from a continuum of degenerate distributions in the complexified space.Comment: 20 pages, several eps figures, minor comments added, to appear in JHE

QCD with Chemical Potential in a Small Hyperspherical Box

To leading order in perturbation theory, we solve QCD, defined on a small three sphere in the large N and Nf limit, at finite chemical potential and map out the phase diagram in the (mu,T) plane. The action of QCD is complex in the presence of a non-zero quark chemical potential which results in the sign problem for lattice simulations. In the large N theory, which at low temperatures becomes a conventional unitary matrix model with a complex action, we find that the dominant contribution to the functional integral comes from complexified gauge field configurations. For this reason the eigenvalues of the Polyakov line lie off the unit circle on a contour in the complex plane. We find at low temperatures that as mu passes one of the quark energy levels there is a third-order Gross-Witten transition from a confined to a deconfined phase and back again giving rise to a rich phase structure. We compare a range of physical observables in the large N theory to those calculated numerically in the theory with N=3. In the latter case there are no genuine phase transitions in a finite volume but nevertheless the observables are remarkably similar to the large N theory.Comment: 44 pages, 18 figures, jhep3 format. Small corrections and clarifications added in v3. Conclusions cleaned up. Published versio

Singular values of the Dirac operator in dense QCD-like theories

We study the singular values of the Dirac operator in dense QCD-like theories at zero temperature. The Dirac singular values are real and nonnegative at any nonzero quark density. The scale of their spectrum is set by the diquark condensate, in contrast to the complex Dirac eigenvalues whose scale is set by the chiral condensate at low density and by the BCS gap at high density. We identify three different low-energy effective theories with diquark sources applicable at low, intermediate, and high density, together with their overlapping domains of validity. We derive a number of exact formulas for the Dirac singular values, including Banks-Casher-type relations for the diquark condensate, Smilga-Stern-type relations for the slope of the singular value density, and Leutwyler-Smilga-type sum rules for the inverse singular values. We construct random matrix theories and determine the form of the microscopic spectral correlation functions of the singular values for all nonzero quark densities. We also derive a rigorous index theorem for non-Hermitian Dirac operators. Our results can in principle be tested in lattice simulations.Comment: 3 references added, version published in JHE

Lovelock theories, holography and the fate of the viscosity bound

We consider Lovelock theories of gravity in the context of AdS/CFT. We show that, for these theories, causality violation on a black hole background can occur well in the interior of the geometry, thus posing more stringent constraints than were previously found in the literature. Also, we find that instabilities of the geometry can appear for certain parameter values at any point in the geometry, as well in the bulk as close to the horizon. These new sources of causality violation and instability should be related to CFT features that do not depend on the UV behavior. They solve a puzzle found previously concerning unphysical negative values for the shear viscosity that are not ruled out solely by causality restrictions. We find that, contrary to previous expectations, causality violation is not always related to positivity of energy. Furthermore, we compute the bound for the shear viscosity to entropy density ratio of supersymmetric conformal field theories from d=4 till d=10 - i.e., up to quartic Lovelock theory -, and find that it behaves smoothly as a function of d. We propose an approximate formula that nicely fits these values and has a nice asymptotic behavior when d goes to infinity for any Lovelock gravity. We discuss in some detail the latter limit. We finally argue that it is possible to obtain increasingly lower values for the shear viscosity to entropy density ratio by the inclusion of more Lovelock terms.Comment: 42 pages, 17 figures, JHEP3.cls. v2: reference adde

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application

The phylogeny and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroid dinosaurs

Tyrannosauroids—the group of carnivores including Tyrannosaurs rex—are some of the most familiar dinosaurs of all. A surge of recent discoveries has helped clarify some aspects of their evolution, but competing phylogenetic hypotheses raise questions about their relationships, biogeography, and fossil record quality. We present a new phylogenetic dataset, which merges published datasets and incorporates recently discovered taxa. We analyze it with parsimony and, for the first time for a tyrannosauroid dataset, Bayesian techniques. The parsimony and Bayesian results are highly congruent, and provide a framework for interpreting the biogeography and evolutionary history of tyrannosauroids. Our phylogenies illustrate that the body plan of the colossal species evolved piecemeal, imply no clear division between northern and southern species in western North America as had been argued, and suggest that T. rex may have been an Asian migrant to North America. Over-reliance on cranial shape characters may explain why published parsimony studies have diverged and filling three major gaps in the fossil record holds the most promise for future work

Variation, variability, and the origin of the avian endocranium:Insights from the anatomy of alioramus altai (theropoda: Tyrannosauroidea)

The internal braincase anatomy of the holotype of Alioramus altai, a relatively small-bodied tyrannosauroid from the Late Cretaceous of Mongolia, was studied using high-resolution computed tomography. A number of derived characters strengthen the diagnosis of this taxon as both a tyrannosauroid and a unique, new species (e.g., endocranial position of the gasserian ganglion, internal ramification of the facial nerve). Also present are features intermediate between the basal theropod and avialan conditions that optimize as the ancestral condition for Coelurosauria--a diverse group of derived theropods that includes modern birds. The expression of several primitive theropod features as derived character states within Tyrannosauroidea establishes previously unrecognized evolutionary complexity and morphological plasticity at the base of Coelurosauria. It also demonstrates the critical role heterochrony may have played in driving patterns of endocranial variability within the group and potentially reveals stages in the evolution of neuroanatomical development that could not be inferred based solely on developmental observations of the major archosaurian crown clades. We discuss the integration of paleontology with variability studies, especially as applied to the nature of morphological transformations along the phylogenetically long branches that tend to separate the crown clades of major vertebrate groups

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator