Improving liver allocation: MELD and PELD

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106724/1/j.1600-6135.2004.00403.x.pd

Increasing disparity in waitlist mortality rates with increased model for end-stage liver disease scores for candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma versus candidates without hepatocellular carcinoma

Candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within Milan criteria receive standardized Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception points due to the projected risk of tumor expansion beyond Milan criteria, meant to be equivalent to a 15% risk of 90-day mortality from listing, with additional points every 3 months, equivalent to a 10% increased mortality risk. We analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing database from 1/1/05–5/31/09 to compare 90-day waitlist outcomes of HCC vs. non-HCC candidates with similar MELD scores. 259 (4.2%) HCC candidates initially listed with 22 MELD exception points were removed for death or clinical deterioration within 90 days of listing vs. 283 (11.0%) non-HCC candidates with initial laboratory MELD scores of 21–23. 93 (4.6%) HCC candidates with 25 exception points (after 3–6 months wait-time) were removed for death or clinical deterioration within 90 days vs. 805 (17.3%) non-HCC candidates with laboratory MELD scores of 24–26. 20 (3.0%) HCC candidates with 28 exception points (after 6–9 months wait-time) were removed for death or clinical deterioration within 90 days vs. 646 (23.6%) non-HCC candidates with laboratory MELD scores of 27–29. In multivariable logistic regression models, HCC candidates had a significantly lower 90-day odds of waitlist removal for death or clinical deterioration (P<0.001). Over time, the risk of waitlist removal for death or clinical deterioration was unchanged for HCC candidates (P=0.17), while it increased significantly for non-HCC candidates. The current allotment of HCC exception points should be reevaluated given the stable risk of waitlist dropout for these candidates