The divided kingdom: making sense of the 'Brexit' referendum

The “in-or-out” referendum on Britain’s EU membership on 23 June 2016 has returned a narrow majority for “Brexit”. This result brings to the fore deep divisions within British society and has aggravated the current crisis of European integration. It has also plunged Britain into a period of political, economic and constitutional uncertainty. This article sheds light on the political context and the main drivers of the British vote to leave the EU. The discussion will begin with exploring the political rationale behind calling the referendum in the first place. The focus will then shift to the European negotiations about Britain’s demands for EU reform in the run-up to the vote. Finally, the article will analyse the main long- and short-term explanatory factors for the referendum outcome

Die britische Ratspräsidentschaft 2005: Zwischen europäischen Erwartungen und innenpolitischen Restriktionen

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The media salience of Germany's bilateral relations to the United States, France and Britain

This article provides a comparative analysis of the salience of Germany’s bilateral relations to the United States, France and Britain in the German media since the end of the cold war. It offers a media content frequency analysis which identifies long-term similarities and differences in media reporting across the three relationships as well as short-term upswings of media interest in each of them individually. This is relevant because the media salience of bilateral relations is a measure of their underpinnings in public discourse and speaks to the significance of domestic drivers in conducting such relationships. The article finds that media reporting on Germany’s three bilateral relations under study has significantly increased in the post-9/11 period and that US–German and Franco–German relations attract far more attention in the German media than Anglo–German relations. Short-term upswings in media coverage are triggered by specific types of events, in particular crises in European integration and international military missions

"Once upon a time …" fiascos as narratives in foreign policy

Despite the agreement among many scholars that fiascos in foreign policy are not objectively observable facts but that they lie in the eye of the beholder or in other words are discursively constructed, there is very little use of discourse analytical methods when investigating such “fiascos”. This contribution therefore illustrates a method of narrative analysis and demonstrations how foreign policy fiascos are discursively constructed in the media. Based on insights from Literary Studies and Narratology it shows that stories about Mistakes consist of three fundamental elements: the setting of the story which guides appropriate behavior, the characterization of the actors involved as well as the emplotment of the event as a “fiasco” and the attribution of cause and blame

Who gets what in foreign affairs? Explaining the allocation of foreign ministries in coalition governments

In coalition governments, political parties are concerned not only with how many but also with which departments they control. The foreign ministry is among the most highly considered prizes in coalition negotiations. This article develops hypotheses to explain under which conditions the foreign ministry is likely to be allocated to a ‘junior coalition partner’. The factors that are hypothesized to affect the allocation are: the relative size of coalition parties; the proximity of their foreign policy positions; the party family of the junior coalition party; the salience of foreign policy to the coalition parties; and past allocations of the foreign ministry to junior coalition partners. Employing a crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis, the article demonstrates that although the conjunction of the junior partner being relatively large and it having led the foreign ministry in the past is not sufficient by itself, those two factors are very influential in the junior partner being allocated the foreign ministry

Narrating success and failure: congressional debates on the ‘Iran nuclear deal’

This article applies a method of narrative analysis to investigate the discursive contestation over the ‘Iran nuclear deal’ in the United States. Specifically, it explores the struggle in the US Congress between narratives constituting the deal as a US foreign policy success or failure. The article argues that foreign policy successes and failures are socially constructed through narratives and suggests how narrative analysis as a discourse analytical method can be employed to trace discursive contests about such constructions. Based on insights from literary studies and narratology, it shows that stories of failures and successes follow similar structures and include a number of key elements, including a particular setting; a negative/positive characterization of individual and collective decision-makers; and an emplotment of success or failure through the attribution of credit/blame and responsibility. The article foregrounds the importance of how stories are told as an explanation for the dominance or marginality of narratives in political discourse

New Labour und der EURO: die Imperative des innerstaatlichen politischen Wettbewerbs

"Die Frage eines Beitritts Großbritanniens zur dritten Stufe der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion steht im Zentrum der aktuellen europapolitischen Debatte sowohl in der britischen Öffentlichkeit als auch innerhalb der britischen Regierung. Obwohl die Labour-Regierung unter Tony Blair einen solchen Schritt prinzipiell befürwortet, hat sie es bisher unterlassen, die Einführung des EURO mit nachdrücklicher politischer Führung zu betreiben und das erforderliche Referendum zu initiieren. Zur Erklärung dieser Politik New Labours schlägt der Autor eine Konzeption der innerstaatlichen 'constraints' der europapolitischen Präferenzbildung vor, die auf den Grundprämissen des 'Zwei-Ebenen-Ansatzes' beruht und neo-institutionalistischen Argumentationslinien folgt. Der Autor kommt zu dem Schluss, dass die Präferenzbildung New Labours entgegen den Annahmen des Liberalen Intergouvernementalismus nicht schlüssig als Funktion organisationsmächtiger Wirtschaftsinteressen gefasst werden kann. Auch eine Erklärung, die ausschließlich auf die empirische Ausprägung der öffentlichen Meinung abhebt, greift nach dieser Analyse zu kurz. Erst eine Berücksichtigung der veröffentlichten Meinung, des zwischenparteilichen Wettbewerbes und der Präferenzverteilung innerhalb der Exekutive erlaubt eine umfassende Erklärung dafür, dass New Labour es bisher nicht vermocht hat, die in ihrer Meinungsbildung nicht vollständig verfestigte öffentliche Meinung von den Vorteilen einer Einführung des EURO zu überzeugen." (Autorenreferat

British foreign policy after Brexit:Losing Europe and finding a role

British foreign policy stands at a turning point following the 2016 ‘Brexit’ referendum. Drawing on role theory, we trace the UK’s efforts to establish new foreign policy roles as it interacts with concerned international actors. We find that the pro-Brexit desire to ‘take back control’ has not yet translated into a cogent foreign policy direction. In its efforts to avoid adopting the role of isolate, the UK has projected a disoriented foreign policy containing elements of partially incompatible roles such as great power, global trading state, leader of the Commonwealth, regional partner to the EU, and faithful ally to the US. The international community has, through processes of socialization and alter-casting, largely rejected these efforts. These role conflicts between the UK and international actors, as well as conflicts among its different role aspirations, has pressed UK policies towards its unwanted isolationist role, potentially shaping its long-term foreign policy orientation post-Brexit.PostprintPeer reviewe

Blair's U-turn - Das britische Referendum über eine europäische Verfassung

"Die Festlegung auf ein Referendum über die europäische Verfassung in Großbritannien markiert den wohl abruptesten und signifikantesten europapolitischen Kurswechsel in der bisherigen Regierungszeit New Labours. Die Implikationen dieses Schrittes sowohl für die Erfolgsaussichten der europäischen Verfassungsgebung als auch für die politische Zukunft der Regierung Blair sind gravierend. Das vorliegende Arbeitspapier analysiert aus der Perspektive der Zwei-Ebenen-Metapher die Beweggründe New Labours für diesen Politikwechsel. Dabei kommt der Autor zu dem Schluss, dass die Ankündigung eines Referendums durch die erneute Dynamisierung des europäischen Verhandlungsprozesses angestoßen wurde und gleichzeitig eine Stärkung britischer Verhandlungsmacht in diesem Prozess bewirkt. Zudem ist der Politikwechsel auf der Ebene der innenpolitischen Auseinandersetzung zumindest kurz- und mittelfristig als Erfolg versprechendes taktisches Manöver der Regierung Blair zu interpretieren. Angeleitet durch die historische Analogie zum Referendum von 1975 über die Mitgliedschaft Großbritanniens in der EG identifiziert der abschließende Ausblick ungünstige Voraussetzungen für das Bestreben New Labours, ein positives Ergebnis der Abstimmung über die europäische Verfassung herbeizuführen." (Autorenreferat