Cool White Dwarfs Revisited -- New Spectroscopy and Photometry

In this paper we present new and improved data on 38 cool white dwarfs identified by Oppenheimer et al. 2001 (OHDHS) as candidate dark halo objects. Using the high-res spectra obtained with LRIS, we measure radial velocities for 13 WDs that show an H alpha line. We show that the knowledge of RVs decreases the UV-plane velocities by only 6%. The radial velocity sample has a W-velocity dispersion of sig_W = 59 km/s--in between the values associated with the thick disk and the stellar halo. We also see indications for the presence of two populations by analyzing the velocities in the UV plane. In addition, we present CCD photometry for half of the sample, and with it recalibrate the photographic photometry of the remaining WDs. Using the new photometry in standard bands, and by applying the appropriate color-magnitude relations for H and He atmospheres, we obtain new distance estimates. New distances of the WDs that were not originally selected as halo candidates yield 13 new candidates. On average, new distances produce velocities in the UV plane that are larger by 10%, with already fast objects gaining more. Using the new data, while applying the same UV-velocity cut (94 km/s) as in OHDHS, we find a density of cool WDs of 1.7e-4 pc^-3, confirming the value of OHDHS. In addition, we derive the density as a function of the UV-velocity cutoff. The density (corrected for losses due to higher UV cuts) starts to flatten out at 150 km/s (0.4e-4 pc^-3), and is minimized (thus minimizing a possible non-halo contamination) at 190 km/s (0.3e-4 pc^-3). These densities are in a rough agreement with the estimates for the stellar halo WDs, corresponding to a factor of 1.9 and 1.4 higher values.Comment: Accepted to ApJ. New version contains some additional data. Results unchange

Ice sheet and climate processes driving the uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise: Findings from a structured expert judgement approach.

The ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland present the greatest uncertainty in, and largest potential contribution to, future sea level rise. The uncertainty arises from a paucity of suitable observations covering the full range of ice sheet behaviors, incomplete understanding of the influences of diverse processes, and limitations in defining key boundary conditions for the numerical models. To investigate the impact of these uncertainties on ice sheet projections we undertook a structured expert judgement study. Here, we interrogate the findings of that study to identify the dominant drivers of uncertainty in projections and their relative importance as a function of ice sheet and time. We find that for the 21st century, Greenland surface melting, in particular the role of surface albedo effects, and West Antarctic ice dynamics, specifically the role of ice shelf buttressing, dominate the uncertainty. The importance of these effects holds under both a high-end 5°C global warming scenario and another that limits global warming to 2°C. During the 22nd century the dominant drivers of uncertainty shift. Under the 5°C scenario, East Antarctic ice dynamics dominate the uncertainty in projections, driven by the possible role of ice flow instabilities. These dynamic effects only become dominant, however, for a temperature scenario above the Paris Agreement 2°C target and beyond 2100. Our findings identify key processes and factors that need to be addressed in future modeling and observational studies in order to reduce uncertainties in ice sheet projections

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.51.2m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.40.9m under RCP 4.5, and 0.30.8m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of 1-in-10 and 1-in-100 year events

Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.</p

Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.</p

Exposure to Tobacco Smoke and Chronic Asthma Symptoms

The objective was to determine if tobacco exposure is associated with year-round asthma symptoms. We analyzed baseline data from a multistate survey of 896 pediatric patients with asthma participating in a randomized controlled trial. Daytime symptoms, nocturnal symptoms, and limitations in activity because of asthma tend to increase during the winter season (p < 0.05 for all comparisons, except spring to winter daytime symptoms). One hundred forty of 896 (16%) children had year-round symptoms (i.e., active asthma symptoms during every season). Using separate multivariate analyses, we found that having a parent who smokes (odds ratio [OR]: 2.22; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.35, 3.64) or a member of the household who smokes (OR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.29, 2.93) was associated with a higher likelihood of year-round symptoms, controlling for region of residence, insurance status, and use of a daily controller medication. Asthma symptoms are more likely to increase in the winter season. In anticipation of these patterns, clinicians should consider initiating controller medication therapy or reinforcing asthma education prior to these time periods for those patients at risk for seasonal exacerbations. Exposure to tobacco smoke is associated with year-round asthma symptoms, highlighting the importance of health care providers identifying and counseling about smoking cessation, especially for children with year-round asthma symptoms. (Pediatr Asthma Immunol 2005; 18[4]:180–188.)Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/63404/1/pai.2005.18.180.pd

Tests of the Accelerating Universe with Near-Infrared Observations of a High-Redshift Type Ia Supernova

We have measured the rest-frame B,V, and I-band light curves of a high-redshift type Ia supernova (SN Ia), SN 1999Q (z=0.46), using HST and ground-based near-infrared detectors. A goal of this study is the measurement of the color excess, E_{B-I}, which is a sensitive indicator of interstellar or intergalactic dust which could affect recent cosmological measurements from high-redshift SNe Ia. Our observations disfavor a 30% opacity of SN Ia visual light by dust as an alternative to an accelerating Universe. This statement applies to both Galactic-type dust (rejected at the 3.4 sigma confidence level) and greyer dust (grain size > 0.1 microns; rejected at the 2.3 to 2.6 sigma confidence level) as proposed by Aguirre (1999). The rest-frame $I$-band light cur ve shows the secondary maximum a month after B maximum typical of nearby SNe Ia of normal luminosi ty, providing no indication of evolution as a function of redshift out to z~0.5. A n expanded set of similar observations could improve the constraints on any contribution of extragalactic dust to the dimming of high-redshift SNe Ia.Comment: Accepted to the Astrophysical Journal, 12 pages, 2 figure