Cooperation, Norms, and Revolutions: A Unified Game-Theoretical Approach

Cooperation is of utmost importance to society as a whole, but is often challenged by individual self-interests. While game theory has studied this problem extensively, there is little work on interactions within and across groups with different preferences or beliefs. Yet, people from different social or cultural backgrounds often meet and interact. This can yield conflict, since behavior that is considered cooperative by one population might be perceived as non-cooperative from the viewpoint of another. To understand the dynamics and outcome of the competitive interactions within and between groups, we study game-dynamical replicator equations for multiple populations with incompatible interests and different power (be this due to different population sizes, material resources, social capital, or other factors). These equations allow us to address various important questions: For example, can cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma be promoted, when two interacting groups have different preferences? Under what conditions can costly punishment, or other mechanisms, foster the evolution of norms? When does cooperation fail, leading to antagonistic behavior, conflict, or even revolutions? And what incentives are needed to reach peaceful agreements between groups with conflicting interests? Our detailed quantitative analysis reveals a large variety of interesting results, which are relevant for society, law and economics, and have implications for the evolution of language and culture as well

The Dynamics of Protest Recruitment through an Online Network

The recent wave of mobilizations in the Arab world and across Western countries has generated much discussion on how digital media is connected to the diffusion of protests. We examine that connection using data from the surge of mobilizations that took place in Spain in May 2011. We study recruitment patterns in the Twitter network and find evidence of social influence and complex contagion. We identify the network position of early participants (i.e. the leaders of the recruitment process) and of the users who acted as seeds of message cascades (i.e. the spreaders of information). We find that early participants cannot be characterized by a typical topological position but spreaders tend to be more central in the network. These findings shed light on the connection between online networks, social contagion, and collective dynamics, and offer an empirical test to the recruitment mechanisms theorized in formal models of collective action

Estimating Actual Evapotranspiration over Croplands Using Vegetation Index Methods and Dynamic Harvested Area

Advances in estimating actual evapotranspiration (ETa) with remote sensing (RS) have contributed to improving hydrological, agricultural, and climatological studies. In this study, we evaluated the applicability of Vegetation-Index (VI) -based ETa (ET-VI) for mapping and monitoring drought in arid agricultural systems in a region where a lack of ground data hampers ETa work. To map ETa (2000–2019), ET-VIs were translated and localized using Landsat-derived 3- and 2-band Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI and EVI2) over croplands in the Zayandehrud River Basin (ZRB) in Iran. Since EVI and EVI2 were optimized for the MODerate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), using these VIs with Landsat sensors required a cross-sensor transformation to allow for their use in the ET-VI algorithm. The before- and after- impact of applying these empirical translation methods on the ETa estimations was examined. We also compared the effect of cropping patterns’ interannual change on the annual ETa rate using the maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. The performance of the different ET-VIs products was then evaluated. Our results show that ETa estimates agreed well with each other and are all suitable to monitor ETa in the ZRB. Compared to ETc values, ETa estimations from MODIS-based continuity corrected Landsat-EVI (EVI2) (EVIMccL and EVI2MccL) performed slightly better across croplands than those of Landsat-EVI (EVI2) without transformation. The analysis of harvested areas and ET-VIs anomalies revealed a decline in the extent of cultivated areas and a loss of corresponding water resources downstream. The findings show the importance of continuity correction across sensors when using empirical algorithms designed and optimized for specific sensors. Our comprehensive ETa estimation of agricultural water use at 30 m spatial resolution provides an inexpensive monitoring tool for cropping areas and their water consumption.</jats:p

A five-year perspective on the situation of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and status of the hantavirus reservoirs in Europe, 2005-2010

Hantavirus infections are reported from many countries in Europe and with highly variable annual case numbers. In 2010, more than 2,000 human cases were reported in Germany, and numbers above the baseline have also been registered in other European countries. Depending on the virus type human infections are characterised by mild to severe forms of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. The member laboratories of the European Network for diagnostics of Imported Viral Diseases present here an overview of the progression of human cases in the period from 2005 to 2010. Further we provide an update on the available diagnostic methods and endemic regions in their countries, with an emphasis on occurring virus types and reservoirs

Political opportunity structures, democracy, and civil war

Theories of mobilization suggest that groups are more likely to resort to violence in the presence of political opportunity structures that afford greater prospects for extracting concessions from the government or better opportunities to topple ruling governments. However, existing efforts to consider the possible influences of political opportunity structures on incentives for violence and civil war empirically have almost invariably relied upon measures of democracy to proxy for the hypothesized mechanisms, most notably the argument that the opposing effects of political accommodation and repression will give rise to an inverted U-shaped relationship between democracy and the risk of civil war. The authors detail a number of problems with measures of democracy as proxies for political opportunity structures and develop alternative measures based on the likely risks that political leaders will lose power in irregular challenges and their implications for the incentives for resort to violence. The authors evaluate empirically how the security with which leaders hold office influences the prospects of violent civil conflict. The findings indicate that recent irregular leader entry and transitions indeed increase the risk of conflict onset, while democratic institutions are found to decrease the risk of civil war, after controlling for the new measures of state weakness. </jats:p

Evaluating the drivers of and obstacles to the willingness to use cognitive enhancement drugs: the influence of drug characteristics, social environment, and personal characteristics

Sattler S, Mehlkop G, Graeff P, Sauer C. Evaluating the drivers of and obstacles to the willingness to use cognitive enhancement drugs: the influence of drug characteristics, social environment, and personal characteristics. Substance Abuse Treatment, Prevention, and Policy. 2014;9(1): 8.Background The use of cognitive enhancement (CE) by means of pharmaceutical agents has been the subject of intense debate both among scientists and in the media. This study investigates several drivers of and obstacles to the willingness to use prescription drugs non-medically for augmenting brain capacity. Methods We conducted a web-based study among 2,877 students from randomly selected disciplines at German universities. Using a factorial survey, respondents expressed their willingness to take various hypothetical CE-drugs; the drugs were described by five experimentally varied characteristics and the social environment by three varied characteristics. Personal characteristics and demographic controls were also measured. Results We found that 65.3% of the respondents staunchly refused to use CE-drugs. The results of a multivariate negative binomial regression indicated that respondents’ willingness to use CE-drugs increased if the potential drugs promised a significant augmentation of mental capacity and a high probability of achieving this augmentation. Willingness decreased when there was a high probability of side effects and a high price. Prevalent CE-drug use among peers increased willingness, whereas a social environment that strongly disapproved of these drugs decreased it. Regarding the respondents’ characteristics, pronounced academic procrastination, high cognitive test anxiety, low intrinsic motivation, low internalization of social norms against CE-drug use, and past experiences with CE-drugs increased willingness. The potential severity of side effects, social recommendations about using CE-drugs, risk preferences, and competencies had no measured effects upon willingness. Conclusions These findings contribute to understanding factors that influence the willingness to use CE-drugs. They support the assumption of instrumental drug use and may contribute to the development of prevention, policy, and educational strategies

Axelrod’s metanorm games on networks

Metanorms is a mechanism proposed to promote cooperation in social dilemmas. Recent experimental results show that network structures that underlie social interactions influence the emergence of norms that promote cooperation. We generalize Axelrod’s analysis of metanorms dynamics to interactions unfolding on networks through simulation and mathematical modeling. Network topology strongly influences the effectiveness of the metanorms mechanism in establishing cooperation. In particular, we find that average degree, clustering coefficient and the average number of triplets per node play key roles in sustaining or collapsing cooperationSpanish MICINN projects CSD2010-00034 (CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010) and DPI2010-16920, and by the Junta de Castilla y Leo´ n, references BU034A08 and GREX251-2009