Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Growth and Unemployment in Nigeria

Unemployment which has been identified as the major cause of poverty is a worldwide economic problem. Poverty alleviation has been a great concern to developing countries. The economic burden of unemployment on a society necessitates this study. Consequently, this study analyses the Nigerian agricultural growth rate, its contributions, and examines the linkage and dimension of agricultural growth and unemployment rates. Collected time series data were analyzed with the aid of t – test, Duncan Multiple Range test, Granger Causality test and regression analysis. Results showed that Nigerian agricultural growth rate has an inverse relationship with unemployment and re – establish the Cobweb supply theory. In addition, increase in agricultural growth decrease unemployment and thus can alleviate poverty. Consequently, recommending polices to alleviate poverty should focus on increasing agricultural growth.Cobweb supply theory, Granger Causality test, Nigeria, Unemployment, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN NIGERIA: A CO- INTEGRATION APPROACH

Inflation is undeniable one of most leading and dynamics macroeconomics issues confronting almost all economies of the world. Its dynamism has made it an imperative issue to be considered. Hence the study examines the factors affecting inflation in Nigeria. Time series data were employed for the study. The data was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive statistics and cointegration analysis were the analytical tools used. It was observed that there were variations in the trend pattern of inflation rate. Some of the variables considered were significant in determining inflation in Nigeria. The previous total export was found to have a negative impact on current inflation while the previous total import exerts a positive effect likewise the food price index. It has thus been recommended that policies that will set the interest rate to a level at which it will encourage investment and increase in production level could be institutionalized, importation should be reduced in Nigeria such that it will not encourage change of consumer taste resulting to inflating prices, exchange rate system should be maintained at a level that will not impose threat on the Nigeria economy and the domestic consumption of petroleum product should be focused, not only exportation.Financial Economics,

Analysis of determinants of maize price variations in Nigeria (1978 - 2014)

Skyrocketing prices of food staples such as maize can lead to inefficient agricultural production and definitely have detrimental effects on the economic, social, and political growth of any country. Most studies on maize in Nigeria are focused on the increasing consumption or competitiveness, very few address the determinants of maize price change as a panacea for the increase of productivity. Filling this gap requires a study on the various factors that contribute to the variations in the price of maize. In this study, secondary data were used. The study used descriptive statistics tools to analyze the pattern of price variations and changes in the production of maize over a period of 36 years in Nigeria. Also, various factors affecting price variation of maize were examined. It was recommended that the positive and significant impact of country’s population to maize price change should serve as an impulse to encourage investment in agricultural sector of Nigeria in order to ensure food security in the country. Also, the government should use the inflation measures to regulate prices of maize in the country

Risk and risk management strategies of smallholder onion farmers in Sokoto state, Nigeria

The study examines risk and its management strategies among smallholder onion farmers in Sokoto State. Data were collected with the use of structured questionnaire designed to pull together information on the socioeconomic characteristics of the farmers in the area such as age, level of education, experience, family size, membership of farmer association, extension contact, risk preference of the farmers etc. Data was also collected on risk sources and risk management strategies.  The primary data used were obtained from structured questionnaire administered to 120 randomly selected farmers. The analytical techniques that were used in the analysis of data were descriptive statistical tools such as means and percentages, Equally Likely Certainty Equivalent with a Purely Hypothetical Risky prospect (ELCEPH) technique and the 5-point Likert scale. The result showed that majority of the farmers are risk averse having a positive Arrow-Pratt absolute risk aversion coefficient

DISCOVERY OF MAIZE PRICE AND FOOD CROP MARKET DYNAMICS IN NIGERIA

Having the mandate of achieving food security in Nigeria, commendable efforts have been geared towards food production in the nation. Albeit the increasing production, price volatility has continued to perpetuate in food markets in Nigeria hence attaining food affordability, a precondition for food security, remains a mirage. An innovative approach to the food challenge therefore, may be to understand the food markets dynamics such as to gain insight into how the market works. In this study we focus on maize, a very important staple in Nigeria. We seek to identify the point of price discovery and markets that significantly influence price of maize. In furtherance, we examine the dynamic relationship existing among the markets and explored the responsiveness of the markets to price signals from the other markets. Our results showed that most of the markets examined behave in such a manner expected of open market however full market integration has not been achieved. It was revealed that prices of maize are discovered from major food market in the deficit production zone. Majority of the markets were responsive to one-time price shock from itself, although exhibiting exogeneity in the contemporaneous period but becoming endogenous by the long run (whereby other markets majorly influenced prices) hence indicating that the markets had commendable informational influence on one another. The study therefore recommended installing infrastructure for linkage of production with the demand zones if price stabilization is to be achieved. Regulatory bodies should also check activities of cartels in the influential markets

Determinants of adoption of vitamin A bio-fortified cassava variety among farmers in Oyo State, Nigeria

The success of any agricultural innovation depends on its adoption by farmers. The study evaluates the determinants of adoption of vitamin A bio-fortified cassava variety among farmers by investigating the level of adoption and determinants of adoption among farmers. Three stages of random sampling procedure were used to select 240 cassava farmers. The data obtained were analyzed with descriptive statistics and a logit regression model. The study revealed that the level of adoption of vitamin A bio-fortified cassava variety is low (38.72%). The study also revealed that access to media, contact with extension agents, access to vitamin A bio-fortified cassava stem, amongst others, are the determinants of adoption of vitamin A bio-fortified cassava variety in the study area. It is therefore recommended that awareness about the new cassava technology should be prioritized to sensitize the farmers, and stems of these cassava varieties should be readily made available to farmers to take advantage of the benefit of the innovation

An Assessment of the Determinants of Moringa Cultivation among Small-Scale Famers in Kwara State, Nigeria

The current rate of micronutrient malnutrition which afflicts over two billion people worldwide calls for a paradigm shift to approaches aimed at linking agricultural production to improved human health, and livelihood. Recent findings indicate the potentials of Moringa tree value-chain development in achieving a sustainable agriculture-agriculture not only aimed at economic prosperity, but equally at nutritional security of small-scale farming households. However, an understanding of factors that influence the cultivation of this crop is important. This study examined the determinants of cultivation of Moringa crop by small-scale farmers in Kwara State, Nigeria. It also highlighted the level of awareness of the benefits of the crop among respondents. The study utilized questionnaire to collect data from 150 arable crop farmers through a 3-stage sampling technique. Binary logistic regression model was used in analyzing the data. Results indicate that 47% of the respondents are aware of the nutritional benefits of the crop and 37.3% grow Moringa on their farms. Furthermore, awareness of crop benefits (p=0.021), farming experience (p=0.063), membership of cooperative society (p=0.07) and the growing of other permanent crops (p=0.001); are the significant factors affecting the cultivation of Moringa crop in the study area. The study recommends the promotion of adequate enlightenment as regards the benefits of Moringa. It also encouraged the utilization of cooperative societies in enhancing value-addition to the Moringa crop. Keywords: sustainable agriculture, micronutrient malnutrition, cultivation, Moring

Modeling Nigerian Government Revenues and Total Expenditure: An Error Correction Model Approach

The national total expenditure of a country is precipitated on several factors of which revenue generated could be one and very significant. This paper therefore examines the contribution of some selected sources of Nigerian government revenue to total national expenditure. Secondary data sourced and collected from Nigerian Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank for a period of thirty nine (39) years were used. Statistical and econometric techniques used for the data analysis are unit root test, cointegration test and the error correction model (ECM). Results showed that the original variables are non stationary but are stationary at first difference. Further investigations resulted into the use of the error correction model whose parameters’ estimation was improved by the use of Feasible Generalized Linear (FGLS) Estimator. Findings revealed significant contribution of oil revenue, federation account (federal allocation) and federal retained revenue to the Nigeria total expenditure and that Nigeria may need to be very cautious as non-availability of revenue from these sources points to non-expenditure. These become very essential if the country will have to achieve its developmental goals and objectives towards development and economic growth, among other things

ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY RESPONSE AND PRICE RISK ON RICE PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

Rice, which is one of the major sources of energy, vital nutrients and a staple food, is in short supply in many Nigerian households. Nigeria is among many African countries that have engaged in agricultural liberalization since 1986 in the hope that reforms emphasizing price incentives will encourage producers to respond. Hitherto, the reforms seem to have introduced greater uncertainty into the market given increasing rates of price volatility (Ajetomobi 2010). This study therefore models supply responses in Nigerian Rice production that include the standard arguments as well as price risk. Statistical information on domestic and imported quantities of rice was obtained for 41 years (1970 to 2011) from the AGROSTAT system of the statistical division of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Federal Ministry of Agriculture statistical bulletins, Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins and National Bureau of Statistic. (NBS). The data are analyzed using descriptive, equilibrium output supply function and co-integration models and vector autoregressive distributed lag. Producer price of rice was positive and statistically significant with coefficient 0.6334. The output response of rice to hectarage was statistically significant but was negative with the coefficient 1.5135. Rice importation showed a negative sign and was statistically significant in Nigeria at 0.05, with Changes in output also responsive to changes in price. There is the tendency for the price of agricultural products to drop, which may consequently reduce the level of domestic production and thus discourage commercial production. The results indicate that producers are more responsive not only to price and non-price factor but to price risk and exchange rate. It is therefore imperative to reduce price risk as to increase the response of producer to supply by bridging the gap in production. Rice, which is one of the major sources of energy, vital nutrients and a staple food, is in short supply in many Nigerian households. Nigeria is among many African countries that have engaged in agricultural liberalization since 1986 in the hope that reforms emphasizing price incentives will encourage producers to respond. Hitherto, the reforms seem to have introduced greater uncertainty into the market given increasing rates of price volatility (Ajetomobi 2010). This study therefore models supply responses in Nigerian Rice production that include the standard arguments as well as price risk. Statistical information on domestic and imported quantities of rice was obtained for 41 years (1970 to 2011) from the AGROSTAT system of the statistical division of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Federal Ministry of Agriculture statistical bulletins, Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins and National Bureau of Statistic. (NBS). The data are analyzed using descriptive, equilibrium output supply function and co-integration models and vector autoregressive distributed lag. Producer price of rice was positive and statistically significant with coefficient 0.6334. The output response of rice to hectarage was statistically significant but was negative with the coefficient 1.5135. Rice importation showed a negative sign and was statistically significant in Nigeria at 0.05, with Changes in output also responsive to changes in price. There is the tendency for the price of agricultural products to drop, which may consequently reduce the level of domestic production and thus discourage commercial production. The results indicate that producers are more responsive not only to price and non-price factor but to price risk and exchange rate. It is therefore imperative to reduce price risk as to increase the response of producer to supply by bridging the gap in production