Statistical Software for State Space Methods

In this paper we review the state space approach to time series analysis and establish the notation that is adopted in this special volume of the Journal of Statistical Software. We first provide some background on the history of state space methods for the analysis of time series. This is followed by a concise overview of linear Gaussian state space analysis including the modelling framework and appropriate estimation methods. We discuss the important class of unobserved component models which incorporate a trend, a seasonal, a cycle, and fixed explanatory and intervention variables for the univariate and multivariate analysis of time series. We continue the discussion by presenting methods for the computation of different estimates for the unobserved state vector: filtering, prediction, and smoothing. Estimation approaches for the other parameters in the model are also considered. Next, we discuss how the estimation procedures can be used for constructing confidence intervals, detecting outlier observations and structural breaks, and testing model assumptions of residual independence, homoscedasticity, and normality. We then show how ARIMA and ARIMA components models fit in the state space framework to time series analysis. We also provide a basic introduction for non-Gaussian state space models. Finally, we present an overview of the software tools currently available for the analysis of time series with state space methods as they are discussed in the other contributions to this special volume.

Transcatheter Repair and Replacement Technologies for Mitral Regurgitation:a European Perspective

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We aimed to picture the contemporary landscape of available catheter-based repair and replacement solutions for mitral regurgitation (MR) in Europe. RECENT FINDINGS: Edge-to-edge repair remains the dominant technique for transcatheter mitral valve repair especially in the context of secondary mitral regurgitation. Two recent randomized trials reported seemingly contradicting clinical results with transcatheter edge-to-edge repair for patients with heart failure and severe secondary MR. A proportionality framework related to secondary MR was proposed to help explain inconsistencies but requires further research. (In)Direct annuloplasty primarily aims to correct secondary MR; however, the scientific basis seems less robust. One dedicated transcatheter heart valve has the CE mark for mitral valve replacement but requires transapical access. Balloon-expandable transcatheter aortic valve platforms are emerging for transvenous transseptal mitral replacement in the context of mitral annular calcification, a failing surgical mitral bioprosthesis, or annuloplasty. Advanced computed tomography imaging techniques improved pre-procedural planning and introduced the option for modeling and simulation. SUMMARY: Development of a toolbox of catheter-based technologies, complementary imaging modalities, and refined patient selection offer novel perspectives to high-risk patients with primary or secondary MR. Clinical trials are required to help formulate evidence-based guidelines for the management of mitral valve disease

Sex-specific aortic valve calcifications in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation

To study sex-specific differences in the amount and distribution of aortic valve calcification (AVC) and to correlate the AVC load with paravalvular leakage (PVL) post-transcatheter aortic valve intervention (TAVI). This registry included 1801 patients undergoing TAVI with a Sapien3 or Evolut valve in two tertiary care institutions. Exclusion criteria encompassed prior aortic valve replacement, suboptimal multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) quality, and suboptimal transthoracic echocardiography images. Calcium content and distribution were derived from MDCT. In this study, the median age was 81.7 (25th–75th percentile 77.5–85.3) and 54% male. Men, compared to women, were significantly younger [81.2 (25th–75th percentile 76.5–84.5) vs. 82.4 (78.2–85.9), P ≤ 0.01] and had a larger annulus area [512 mm 2 (25th–75th percentile 463–570) vs. 405 mm 2 (365–454), P < 0.01] and higher Agatston score [2567 (25th–75th percentile 1657–3913) vs. 1615 (25th–75th percentile 905–2484), P < 0.01]. In total, 1104 patients (61%) had none-trace PVL, 648 (36%) mild PVL, and 49 (3%) moderate PVL post-TAVI. There was no difference in the occurrence of moderate PVL between men and women (3% vs. 3%, P = 0.63). Cut-off values for the Agatston score as predictor for moderate PVL based on the receiver-operating characteristic curve were 4070 (sensitivity 0.73, specificity 0.79) for men and 2341 (sensitivity 0.74, specificity 0.73) for women. AVC is a strong predictor for moderate PVL post-TAVI. Although the AVC load in men is higher compared to women, there is no difference in the incidence of moderate PVL. Sex-specific Agatston score cut-offs to predict moderate PVL were almost double as high in men vs. women

Insights in a restricted temporary pacemaker strategy in a lean transcatheter aortic valve implantation program

OBJECTIVES: To study the safety and feasibility of a restrictive temporary‐RV‐pacemaker use and to evaluate the need for temporary pacemaker insertion for failed left ventricular (LV) pacing ability (no ventricular capture) or occurrence of high‐degree AV‐blocks mandating continuous pacing. BACKGROUND: Ventricular pacing remains an essential part of contemporary transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). A temporary‐right‐ventricle (RV)‐pacemaker lead is the standard approach for transient pacing during TAVI but requires central venous access. METHODS: An observational registry including 672 patients who underwent TAVI between June 2018 and December 2020. Patients received pacing on the wire when necessary, unless there was a high‐anticipated risk for conduction disturbances post‐TAVI, based on the baseline‐ECG. The follow‐up period was 30 days. RESULTS: A temporary‐RV‐pacemaker lead (RVP‐cohort) was inserted in 45 patients, pacing on the wire (LVP‐cohort) in 488 patients, and no pacing (NoP‐cohort) in 139 patients. A bailout temporary pacemaker was implanted in 14 patients (10.1%) in the NoP‐cohort and in 24 patients (4.9%) in the LVP‐cohort. One patient in the LVP‐cohort needed an RV‐pacemaker for incomplete ventricular capture. Procedure time was significantly longer in the RVP‐cohort (68 min [IQR 52–88.] vs. 55 min [IQR 44–72] in NoP‐cohort and 55 min [IQR 43–71] in the LVP‐cohort [p < 0.005]). Procedural high‐degree AV‐block occurred most often in the RVP‐cohort (45% vs. 14% in the LVP and 16% in the NoP‐cohort [p ≤ 0.001]). Need for new PPI occurred in 47% in the RVP‐cohort, versus 20% in the NoP‐cohort and 11% in the LVP‐cohort (p ≤ 0.001). CONCLUSION: A restricted RV‐pacemaker strategy is safe and shortens procedure time. The majority of TAVI‐procedures do not require a temporary‐RV‐pacemaker

PHOX2B polyalanine repeat length is associated with sudden infant death syndrome and unclassified sudden infant death in the Dutch population

Unclassified sudden infant death (USID) is the sudden and unexpected death of an infant that remains unexplained after thorough case investigation including performance of a complete autopsy and review of the circumstances of death and the clinical history. When the infant is below 1 year of age and with onset of the fatal episode apparently occurring during sleep, this is referred to as sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). USID and SIDS remain poorly understood despite the identification of several environmental and some genetic risk factors. In this study, we investigated genetic risk factors involved in the autonomous nervous system in 195 Dutch USID/SIDS cases and 846 Dutch, age-matched healthy controls. Twenty-five DNA variants from 11 genes previously implicated in the serotonin household or in the congenital central hypoventilation syndrome, of which some have been associated with SIDS before, were tested. Of all DNA variants considered, only the length variation of the polyalanine repeat in exon 3 of the PHOX2B gene was found to be statistically significantly associated with USID/SIDS in the Dutch population after multiple test correction. Interestingly, our data suggest that contraction of the PHOX2B exon 3 polyalanine repeat that we found in six of 160 SIDS and USID cases and in six of 814 controls serves as a probable genetic risk factor for USID/SIDS at least in the Dutch population. Future studies are needed to confirm this finding and to understand the functional effect of the polyalanine repeat length variation, in particular contraction, in exon 3 of the PHOX2B gene

Constructing seasonally adjusted data with time-varying confidence intervals

Seasonal adjustment methods transform observed time series data into estimated data, where these estimated data are constructed such that they show no or almost no seasonal variation. An advantage of model-based methods is that these can provide confidence intervals around the seasonally adjusted data. One particularly useful time series model for seasonal adjustment is the basic structural time series [BSM] model. The usual premise of the BSM is that the variance of each of the components is constant. In this paper we address the possibility that the variance of the trend component in a macro-economic time series in some way depends on the business cycle. One reason for doing so is that one can expect that there is more uncertainty in recession periods. We extend the BSM by allowing for a business-cycle dependent variance in the level equation. Next we show how this affects the confidence intervals of seasonally adjusted data. We apply our extended BSM to monthly US unemployment and we show that the estimated confidence intervals for seasonally adjusted unemployment change with past changes in the oil price