Assessment of Future Climate Change Projections Using Multiple Global Climate Models

Nowadays, the hydrological cycle which alters river discharge and water availability is affected by climate change. Therefore, the understanding of climate change is curial for the security of hydrologic conditions of river basins. The main purpose of this study is to assess the projections of future climate across the Upper Ayeyarwady river basin for its sustainable development and management of water sector for this area. Global Ten climate Models available from CMIP5 represented by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report were bias corrected using linear scaling method to generate the model error. Among the GCMs, a suitable climate model for each station is selected based on the results of performance indicators (R2 and RMSE). Future climate data are projected based on the selected suitable climate models by using future climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. According to this study, future projection indicates to increase in precipitation amounts in the rainy and winter season and diminishes in summer season under all future scenarios. Based on the seasonal temperature changes analysis for all stations,  the future temperature are  predicted to steadily increase with higher rates during summer than the other two seasons and it can also be concluded that the monthly minimum temperature rise is a bit larger than the maximum temperature rise in all seasons

Analysis of Streamflow Response to Changing Climate Conditions Using SWAT Model

The understanding of climate change is curial for the security of hydrologic conditions of river basins and it is very important to study the climate change impacts on streamflow by analyzing the different climate scenarios with the help of the hydrological models. The main purpose of this study is to project the future climate impact on streamflow by using the SWAT model. The multi-model projections indicated that Upper Ayeyarwady River Basin is likely to become hotter in dry season under low rainfall intensity with increasing temperature and likely to become wetter but warmer in both rainy and winter season because of high rainfall intensity with increased temperature in future. The impact of climate change scenarios is predicted to decrease the annual streamflow by about 0.30 to 1.92% under RCP2.6, 5.59 to 7.29% under RCP4.5 and 10.43 to 11.92% under RCP8.5. Based on the change in high and low flow percentage with respect to the baseline period, the difference between high and low flow variation range will increase year by year based on future scenarios. Therefore, it can be concluded that it may occur more low flow in the dry season which leads to increase in water scarcity and drought and more high flow in the wet season which can cause flooding, water insecurity, stress, and other water-related disasters

Prevalence and seroprevalence of Plasmodium infection in Myanmar reveals highly heterogeneous transmission and a large hidden reservoir of infection.

Malaria incidence in Myanmar has significantly reduced over recent years, however, completeness and timeliness of incidence data remain a challenge. The first ever nationwide malaria infection and seroprevalence survey was conducted in Myanmar in 2015 to better understand malaria epidemiology and highlight gaps in Annual Parasite Index (API) data. The survey was a cross-sectional two-stage stratified cluster-randomised household survey conducted from July-October 2015. Blood samples were collected from household members for ultra-sensitive PCR and serology testing for P. falciparum and P. vivax. Data was gathered on demography and a priori risk factors of participants. Data was analysed nationally and within each of four domains defined by API data. Prevalence and seroprevalence of malaria were 0.74% and 16.01% nationwide, respectively. Prevalent infection was primarily asymptomatic P. vivax, while P. falciparum was predominant in serology. There was large heterogeneity between villages and by domain. At the township level, API showed moderate correlation with P. falciparum seroprevalence. Risk factors for infection included socioeconomic status, domain, and household ownership of nets. Three K13 P. falciparum mutants were found in highly prevalent villages. There results highlight high heterogeneity of both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission between villages, accentuated by a large hidden reservoir of asymptomatic P. vivax infection not captured by incidence data, and representing challenges for malaria elimination. Village-level surveillance and stratification to guide interventions to suit local context and targeting of transmission foci with evidence of drug resistance would aid elimination efforts

Biology of the Cassava Mite, Tetranychus truncatus Ehara (Acari: Tetranychidae)

The duration of developmental stages of Tetranychus truncatus Ehara was studied at four different temperature regimes (20, 25, 30 and 35˚C) on excised mulberry leaves. Longevity and fecundity of fe-male and sex ratio were also observed at 30˚C. Mites completed their development within this tem-perature range. T. truncatus eggs hatched to larvae in the shortest duration of 2.38 ± 0.06 days at 35˚C and the longest duration of 7.65 ± 0.05 days at 20˚C. Development time for completion of the life cycle de-creased significantly with increasing temperature. The longest (16.93 ± 0.11 days) and the shortest (5.34 ± 0.11 days) life cycle were observed at 20˚C and 35˚C respectively. The highest immature mortality was 13.94% at 35˚C followed by 10.35% at 20˚C. A female mite laid 55.07 eggs during its oviposition period of 10.93± 0.29 days at 30˚C. The oviposition rate was 5.13± 0.24 eggs/female/day at 30˚C. The sex ratio of T. truncatus at 30˚C was 1 : 3.12 (male: female)

Community demand for comprehensive primary health care from malaria volunteers in South-East Myanmar: a qualitative study

Background Malaria volunteers have contributed significantly to malaria control achieving a reduction of annual parasite incidence to pre-elimination levels in several townships across Myanmar. However, the volunteers’ role is changing as Myanmar transitions from a malaria control to elimination programme and towards the goal of universal health coverage. The aim of the study is to explore the perspectives of community leaders, members and malaria volunteers in South-East Myanmar on community-delivered models to inform an optimal design that targets malaria elimination in the context of primary health care in Myanmar. Methods Qualitative methods including focus group discussions (FGDs) with community members and current or ex-malaria volunteers, and participatory workshops with community leaders were conducted. All data collection tools were pilot tested with similar participants. The FGDs were stratified into male and female participants in consideration of diverse gender roles among the ethnic groups of Myanmar. Data saturation was the key cut-off point to cease recruitment of participants. Inductive thematic analysis was used. Results Community members were willing to be tested for malaria because they were concerned about the consequences of malaria although they were aware that malaria prevalence is low in their villages. Malaria volunteers were the main service providers for malaria and other infectious diseases in the community. Apart from malaria, the community identified common health problems such as the flu (fever, sneezing and coughing), diarrhoea, skin infections and tuberculosis as priority diseases in this order. Incorporating preventive, and whenever possible curative, services for those diseases into the current malaria volunteer model was recommended. Discussion and conclusion There was a gap between the communities’ expectations of health services and the health services currently being delivered by volunteers in the community that highlights the need for reassessment and reform of the volunteer model in the changing context. An evidence-based, community preferred, pragmatic community-delivered integrated model should be constructed based on the context of malaria elimination and progressing towards universal health coverage in Myanmar

Access to primaquine in the last mile: challenges at the service delivery points in pre-elimination era, Myanmar

Abstract Background Alongside monitoring of the disease burden, the successful move towards malaria elimination relies on the readiness of the health care delivery system. However, there is a lack of evidence in the gap of existing National Guidelines and access to low dose primaquine in real practice under varying degrees of antimalarial resistance in the pre-elimination phase in Myanmar. Therefore, this study addressed the essential information from the service delivery points (SDPs) of public and private sectors on the availability and the use of primaquine in both supply and demand side. Concomitantly, the study aimed to underscore challenges in health system infrastructure to promote the sustained flow in rolling out primaquine in line with National Guidelines for malaria elimination. Methods A cross-sectional study conducted from September 2017 to February 2018 included six townships of three states/regions. The team used an observation checklist for documenting primaquine supplies at SDPs. Semi-structured interviews, key informant, and in-depth interviews focused both public and private sectors including staff from the Vector-Borne Diseases Control (VBDC) teams in each state/region and rural health centers (n = 25), those from the non-governmental organizations (NGOs), general practitioners and drug sellers (n = 11), and recently infected malaria patients (n = 11). Triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data provided meaningful interpretations. Results Public sector staff reported an adequate stock of primaquine, but it was unavailable at the general practitioners’ clinics without any connection to NGOs and also at the unlicensed drug shops. Health care providers of the public sector experienced challenges in poor compliance of malaria patients to primaquine treatment in conjunction with an artemisinin-based combination therapy, loss-to-follow-ups especially in conflict areas, and delays in timely substitution of new batches of primaquine. Respondents from the private sector demanded for the refresher training course on updated antimalarial treatment guidelines. Conclusion Monitoring compliance and safety of primaquine treatment was found as a barrier especially among mobile migrant workers and those who were in conflict areas. An alternative strategy by the NMCP could enable to prevent the underutilization of primaquine in vivax malaria to reach the malaria elimination targets

Performance and feasibility of reactive surveillance and response strategies for malaria elimination in Vietnam: a mixed-methods study

Abstract Background To enhance malaria elimination, Vietnam adopted a Reactive Surveillance and Response (RASR) Strategy in which malaria case notification and investigation must be completed within 2 days followed by a focus investigation within 7 days. The nationwide performance of Vietnam’s RASR strategy has yet to be evaluated. This study aims to evaluate the performance and feasibility of RASR in Vietnam, thereby providing recommendations for improved RASR. Methods To assess malaria RASR in Vietnam, a mixed-methods study of (1) secondary data analysis of nationwide malaria case-based dataset from 2017 to 2021; (2) a quantitative survey, and (3) qualitative in-depth interviews and focus group discussions administered to central, provincial and district level stakeholders/staff and to the commune and community level front line health services providers was conducted. Results In Vietnam, there are guidelines and procedures for implementation of each step of RASR. The completeness of case notification on the reported monthly aggregated data was very high in both the paper-based (12,463/12,498, 99.7% in 2017–2020) and electronic reporting systems (467/467, 100% in 2021 when electronic reporting was introduced); however, there were delays in notification while using the paper-based system (timely notification—7,978/12,498, 63.8%). In 2021, the completeness (453/467, 97.0%) and timeliness (371/467, 79.4%) of case investigation were found to be high. Reactive case detection was the major focus investigation response, with fever screening achievement of 88.6% (11,481 / 12,965) and 88.5% (11,471 / 12,965) among index case and neighbouring household members, respectively. Conclusions Overall, there was policy commitment for implementation of RASR in Vietnam. The completeness and timeliness of case notification and case investigation were high and improved after the introduction of the electronic reporting system. More evidence is required for reactive case detection in defining the screening area or population

Anopheles diversity, biting behaviour and transmission potential in forest and farm environments of Gia Lai province, Vietnam

Abstract Background Despite recent reductions in Vietnam, malaria transmission persists in some areas in forests and farmlands where a high density of Anopheles mosquitoes relative to other environments occurs. To inform effective malaria control measures, it is important to understand vector bionomics and the malaria transmission role of Anopheles spp. in the highland regions of Vietnam. This study was conducted to quantify the abundance, composition and biting behaviour of the Anopheles mosquito population, and the proportion of Plasmodium spp. infected mosquitoes collected from forest and agricultural farm sites in Gia Lai province, Vietnam. Methods Forest and agricultural farm sites in Gia Lai province were selected for mosquito collections (total eight sites). Mosquito collection was performed by Human-baited Double Net Trap (HDNT), animal-baited traps (ABT) using cattle, and CDC light traps. Captured mosquitoes were identified morphologically, and salivary glands of Anopheles mosquitoes were examined for sporozoites using microscopy. Plasmodium infection was determined by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR), and identification of blood meal type was determined by PCR and diffuse serum agglutination assay. Results A total of 1815 Anopheles mosquitoes belonging to 19 species were collected by ABT (n = 1169), HDNT (n = 471) and CDC light trap (n = 175). Anopheles abundance and diversity varied by district and environment. Capture by HDNT of Anopheles of vectorial concern was observed between early evening and early morning. Plasmodium vivax infection was determined by PCR in two Anopheles dirus specimens captured by HDNT in forest sites. Blood from a range of hosts could, including human blood, could be detected in species considered primary and secondary vectors An. dirus, and Anopheles aconitus, and Anopheles maculatus, respectively. Conclusions A low number of Anopheles spp. considered primary vectors of concern and very low numbers of Plasmodium spp. infected Anopheles mosquitoes were captured at the end of the rainy season in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. However, capture species of vectorial concern by HDNT throughout the early to late evening demonstrates that use of additional personal protective measures could supplement current preventative measures, such as bed nets to prevent exposure to vectors of concern in this region