Oil Price Shocks and Variations in Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria

The study was an evaluation of the impact of oil price fluctuations on specific macroeconomic variables in Nigeria for the period, 1981-2017. This was examined to establish the innovations oil price will caused on some selected macroeconomic variables such as government revenue, government expenditure, money supply, inflation, real gross domestic product and unemployment. Using results from impulse responses and variance decompositions from a VAR, the result showed that oil price fluctuations largely accounted for the variations in six out of seven macroeconomic variables namely government revenue (GREV), government expenditure (GEXP), money supply (MS2), real gross domestic product (RGDP) and unemployment (UEMP) while its impact on inflation (INF) was found to be insignificant thus, providing evidence that oil price is not inflationary in an open economy such as Nigeria. The result of the impulse response function (IRF) also revealed that aside from inflation which had a negative response to oil shock, all other six variables such as government revenue, government expenditure, money supply, real gross domestic product and unemployment had a positive significant response to oil shock throughout the 10th quarters.From the empirical investigation, it can be concluded that a combination of fiscal and monetary policies could provide effective instruments for the stabilization of the economy after an oil shock. DOI: 10.7176/JETP/9-5-01 Publication date:June 30th 201

INVESTIGATING THE PREDICTIVE EFFECT OF ADMISSION CRITERIA ON STUDENT ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA: USING A LOGIT MODEL

ABSTRACT This study aims at investigating the effects of and the predictive capability of admission criteria on students' academic performances in higher institutions. For this, data on results and student's demographic characteristics were collected from the department of Economics, FCE Zaria, Nigeria. In order to capture plausible relationships and deterministic effects between the variables used, the study employed the use of a binary dependent model (logit model). The results from the model estimated showed consistency in the adequacy of the current admission criteria. It also espoused the need for emphasis on UME results rather than WASSCE or NECO results which should be interpreted with caution. Demographic characteristics of students showed better performances from students below 22 years old, feminine and are from the southern region of the country. Thus it was recommended that, the current admission criteria should be maintained as it adequately predicts students' academic performances in higher institutions, but caution should be used when interpreting WASSCE and NECO results of students

Engaging adolescents in changing behaviour (EACH-B): A study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial to improve dietary quality and physical activity

Background Poor diet and lack of physical activity are strongly linked to non-communicable disease risk, but modifying them is challenging. There is increasing recognition that adolescence is an important time to intervene; habits formed during this period tend to last, and physical and psychological changes during adolescence make it an important time to help individuals form healthier habits. Improving adolescents’ health behaviours is important not only for their own health now and in adulthood, but also for the health of any future children. Building on LifeLab—an existing, purpose-built educational facility at the University of Southampton—we have developed a multi-component intervention for secondary school students called Engaging Adolescents in Changing Behaviour (EACH-B) that aims to motivate and support adolescents to eat better and be more physically active. Methods A cluster randomised controlled trial is being conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the EACH-B intervention. The primary outcomes of the intervention are self-reported dietary quality and objectively measured physical activity (PA) levels, both assessed at baseline and at 12-month follow-up. The EACH-B intervention consists of three linked elements: professional development for teachers including training in communication skills to support health behaviour change; the LifeLab educational module comprising in-school teaching of nine science lessons linked to the English National Curriculum and a practical day visit to the LifeLab facility; and a personalised digital intervention that involves social support and game features that promote eating better and being more active. Both the taught module and the LifeLab day are designed with a focus on the science behind the messages about positive health behaviours, such as diet and PA, for the adolescents now, in adulthood and their future offspring, with the aim of promoting personal plans for change. The EACH-B research trial aims to recruit approximately 2300 secondary school students aged 12–13 years from 50 schools (the clusters) from Hampshire and neighbouring counties. Participating schools will be randomised to either the control or intervention arm. The intervention will be run during two academic years, with continual recruitment of schools throughout the school year until the sample size is reached. The schools allocated to the control arm will receive normal schooling but will be offered the intervention after data collection for the trial is complete. An economic model will be developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the EACH-B intervention compared with usual schooling. Discussion Adolescents’ health needs are often ignored and they can be difficult to engage in behaviour change. Building a cheap, sustainable way of engaging them in making healthier choices will benefit their long-term health and that of their future children. Trial registration ISRCTN 74109264. Registered on 30 August 2019. EACH-B is a cluster randomised controlled trial, funded by the National Institute for Health Research (RP-PG-0216-20004)

Two interferon gamma release assays for predicting active tuberculosis: the UK PREDICT TB prognostic test study

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Catheter ablation vs. thoracoscopic surgical ablation in long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation: CASA-AF randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: Long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation (LSPAF) is challenging to treat with suboptimal catheter ablation (CA) outcomes. Thoracoscopic surgical ablation (SA) has shown promising efficacy in atrial fibrillation (AF). This multicentre randomized controlled trial tested whether SA was superior to CA as the first interventional strategy in de novo LSPAF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We randomized 120 LSPAF patients to SA or CA. All patients underwent predetermined lesion sets and implantable loop recorder insertion. Primary outcome was single procedure freedom from AF/atrial tachycardia (AT) ≥30 s without anti-arrhythmic drugs at 12 months. Secondary outcomes included clinical success (≥75% reduction in AF/AT burden); procedure-related serious adverse events; changes in patients' symptoms and quality-of-life scores; and cost-effectiveness. At 12 months, freedom from AF/AT was recorded in 26% (14/54) of patients in SA vs. 28% (17/60) in the CA group [OR 1.128, 95% CI (0.46-2.83), P = 0.83]. Reduction in AF/AT burden ≥75% was recorded in 67% (36/54) vs. 77% (46/60) [OR 1.13, 95% CI (0.67-4.08), P = 0.3] in SA and CA groups, respectively. Procedure-related serious adverse events within 30 days of intervention were reported in 15% (8/55) of patients in SA vs. 10% (6/60) in CA, P = 0.46. One death was reported after SA. Improvements in AF symptoms were greater following CA. Over 12 months, SA was more expensive and provided fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) compared with CA (0.78 vs. 0.85, P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Single procedure thoracoscopic SA is not superior to CA in treating LSPAF. Catheter ablation provided greater improvements in symptoms and accrued significantly more QALYs during follow-up than SA. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN18250790 and ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02755688

A duodenal sleeve bypass device added to intensive medical therapy for obesity with type 2 diabetes: a RCT

Background The EndoBarrier® (GI Dynamics Inc., Boston, MA, USA) is an endoluminal duodenal–jejunal bypass liner developed for the treatment of patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Meta-analyses of its effects on glycaemia and weight have called for larger randomised controlled trials with longer follow-up. Objectives The primary objective was to compare intensive medical therapy with a duodenal–jejunal bypass liner with intensive medical therapy without a duodenal–jejunal bypass liner, comparing effectiveness on the metabolic state as defined by the International Diabetes Federation as a glycated haemoglobin level reduction of ≥ 20%. The secondary objectives were to compare intensive medical therapy with a duodenal–jejunal bypass liner with intensive medical therapy without a duodenal–jejunal bypass liner, comparing effectiveness on the metabolic state as defined by the International Diabetes Federation as a glycated haemoglobin level of  15% of their total body weight (duodenal–jejunal bypass liner group 24.2% vs. control group 3.7%; odds ratio 8.33, 95% confidence interval 1.78 to 39.0; p = 0.007) and achieved blood pressure targets (duodenal–jejunal bypass liner group 68.2% vs. control group 44.4%; odds ratio 2.57, 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 5.48; p = 0.014). These differences were observed at 12 months but not at 24 months. There were more adverse events in the duodenal–jejunal bypass liner group, including one liver abscess. The increase in peripheral insulin sensitivity was superior in the duodenal–jejunal bypass liner group. Spectroscopic analyses of plasma, urine and faeces revealed several distinct metabolic perturbations in the duodenal–jejunal bypass liner group but not in the control group. Brain reward responses to food cues were not different between groups. The number of mean quality-adjusted life-years gained was similar in both groups and the additional costs of the duodenal–jejunal bypass liner may outweigh the value of the health benefits by £2560 per patient treated. Conclusions The results show that the endoluminal duodenal–jejunal bypass liner was not superior to intensive medical therapy for glycaemic control and was associated with more adverse events. The duodenal–jejunal bypass liner was associated with significant weight loss and improvement in cardiometabolic parameters at 12 months but not at 24 months. Economic evaluation showed that the bypass liner was not cost-effective for glycaemic control or for weight loss. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN30845205. Funding This project was funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) Programme, a Medical Research Council (MRC) and National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) partnership. This will be published in full in Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation; Vol. 7, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This study was executed with the support of GI Dynamics Inc. and with the kind support of Nutricia Advanced Medical Nutrition for providing oral nutritional supplements

Health economic aspects of childhood excess weight: A structured review

An economic perspective is crucial to understand the broad consequences of childhood excess weight (CEW). These can manifest in the form of elevated health care and societal costs, impaired health status, or inefficiencies in the allocation of resources targeted at its prevention, management, or treatment. Although existing systematic reviews provide summaries of distinct economic research strands covering CEW, they have a restricted focus that overlooks relevant evidence. The overarching aim of this structured review was to update and enhance recent key reviews of four strands of economic evidence in this area, namely, (1) economic costs associated with CEW, (2) health utilities associated with CEW, (3) economic evaluations of interventions targeting CEW, and (4) economic determinants and broader consequences of CEW. Our de novo searches identified six additional studies for the first research strand, five studies for the second, thirty-one for the third, and two for the fourth. Most studies were conducted in a small number of high-income countries. Our review highlights knowledge gaps across all the research strands. Evidence from this structured review can act as data input into future economic evaluations in this area and highlights areas where future economic research should be targeted