Application of Markov Chain Model in Studying progression Of Secondary School Students by Sex During The Free Secondary Education: A Case Study of Kisii Central District

Enrollment forecasting is an essential element in budgeting, resource allocation, and the overall planning for the growth of education sector. This paper demonstrates the use of Markov chain techniques in studying progression of secondary school students from the time of entry/enrollment in form one to graduation after the expected four years in Kenya’s secondary school level of education. The target population included all the secondary school students in Kisii Central District. The model was used to determine the district’s secondary school completion/dropout rate, retention rate and the expected duration of schooling by sex. It was established that completion rates for male students was higher than that of female students and dropout rates for female students was higher than that of male students. In the long run, it was established that the completion and dropout rates were the absorbing rates. Female students had lower expectation of schooling compared to male students in Kisii Central District. The model is only appropriate in making short period projections. Keywords: Absorbing States, Absorbing Markov Chain, Transition Rates, Dropout Rates, Completion Rates, Fundamental Matri

Genetic variability of tissue cultured Sorghum bicolor (L) Moench as revealed by morphological traits and simple sequence repeats (SSR) markers

To evaluate their performance for seedling traits at seedling stage (under hydroponics), plant water relations under water stress and ultimately grain yield, and to estimate the genetic variability of the regenerates, the parent plants of local sorghum cultivars in Kenya using simple sequence repeats (SSR) markers were analyzed. The research involved Seredo, El Gardam and Mtama 1 sorghum cultivars. The TC (Tissue culture) regenerates were produced through somatic embryogenesis in Linsmaier and Skoog (LS) media augmented with an osmoticum, NaCl (100 mM) in attempt to improve the parent plant for water stress tolerance. The genetic variability was investigated using five SSR markers and seven morphological traits associated with water stress tolerance. The amplified DNA fragments were screened by gel electrophoresis using 2% agarose. Cluster and principal component analysis (PCA) were done using NTSYS-pc version 2.2. The SSR detected 11 alleles with an average of 2.2 alleles per locus. The number of alleles per locus ranged from two to three and the allelic polymorphism information content (PIC) value ranged from 0.344 for Xcup14 to 0.730 for Xgap72 with an average of 0.559. These results show that the cultivars differed for morphological and SSR markers. The average genetic similarity based on the morphological traits (0.922 with a range of 0.845 to 0.989) was higher than SSR markers (0.625 with a range of 0.306 to 0.944). The results also show that the classification of these sorghum cultivars may be useful to the breeders to plan crosses for preferred traits. The results also show that the sorghum microsatellites can be used to distinguish the cultivars and to estimate genetic diversity due to somaclonal variation. Overall, this study shows that tissue culture technique might not add value in producing somaclonal variation in sorghum.Key words: Cultivars, tissue culture regenerates, water stress tolerance, simple sequence repeats

An intensive, active surveillance reveals continuous invasion and high diversity of rhinovirus in households

We report on infection patterns in 5 households (78 participants) delineating the natural history of human rhinovirus (HRV). Nasopharyngeal collections were obtained every 3–4 days irrespective of symptoms, over a 6-month period, with molecular screening for HRV and typing by sequencing VP4/VP2 junction. Overall, 311/3468 (8.9%) collections were HRV positive: 256 were classified into 3 species: 104 (40.6%) HRV-A; 14 (5.5%) HRV-B, and 138 (53.9%) HRV-C. Twenty-six known HRV types (13 HRV-A, 3 HRV-B, and 10 HRV-C) were identified (A75, C1, and C35 being most frequent). We observed continuous invasion and temporal clustering of HRV types in households (range 5–13 over 6 months). Intrahousehold transmission was independent of clinical status but influenced by age. Most (89.0%) of HRV infection episodes were limited to <14 days. Individual repeat infections were frequent (range 1–7 over 6 months), decreasing with age, and almost invariably heterotypic, indicative of lasting type-specific immunity and low cross-type protection

Detection of infectious disease outbreaks in twenty-two fragile states, 2000-2010: a systematic review.

Fragile states are home to a sixth of the world's population, and their populations are particularly vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks. Timely surveillance and control are essential to minimise the impact of these outbreaks, but little evidence is published about the effectiveness of existing surveillance systems. We did a systematic review of the circumstances (mode) of detection of outbreaks occurring in 22 fragile states in the decade 2000-2010 (i.e. all states consistently meeting fragility criteria during the timeframe of the review), as well as time lags from onset to detection of these outbreaks, and from detection to further events in their timeline. The aim of this review was to enhance the evidence base for implementing infectious disease surveillance in these complex, resource-constrained settings, and to assess the relative importance of different routes whereby outbreak detection occurs.We identified 61 reports concerning 38 outbreaks. Twenty of these were detected by existing surveillance systems, but 10 detections occurred following formal notifications by participating health facilities rather than data analysis. A further 15 outbreaks were detected by informal notifications, including rumours.There were long delays from onset to detection (median 29 days) and from detection to further events (investigation, confirmation, declaration, control). Existing surveillance systems yielded the shortest detection delays when linked to reduced barriers to health care and frequent analysis and reporting of incidence data.Epidemic surveillance and control appear to be insufficiently timely in fragile states, and need to be strengthened. Greater reliance on formal and informal notifications is warranted. Outbreak reports should be more standardised and enable monitoring of surveillance systems' effectiveness

Are Tanzanian patients attending public facilities or private retailers more likely to adhere to artemisinin-based combination therapy?

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) is first-line treatment for malaria in most endemic countries and is increasingly available in the private sector. Most studies on ACT adherence have been conducted in the public sector, with minimal data from private retailers. METHODS: Parallel studies were conducted in Tanzania, in which patients obtaining artemether-lumefantrine (AL) at 40 randomly selected public health facilities and 37 accredited drug dispensing outlets (ADDOs) were visited at home and questioned about doses taken. The effect of sector on adherence, controlling for potential confounders was assessed using logistic regression with a random effect for outlet. RESULTS: Of 572 health facility patients and 450 ADDO patients, 74.5% (95% CI: 69.8, 78.8) and 69.8% (95% CI: 64.6, 74.5), respectively, completed treatment and 46.0% (95% CI: 40.9, 51.2) and 34.8% (95% CI: 30.1, 39.8) took each dose at the correct time ('timely completion'). ADDO patients were wealthier, more educated, older, sought care later in the day, and were less likely to test positive for malaria than health facility patients. Controlling for patient characteristics, the adjusted odds of completed treatment and of timely completion for ADDO patients were 0.65 (95% CI: 0.43, 1.00) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.47, 1.01) times that of health facility patients. Higher socio-economic status was associated with both adherence measures. Higher education was associated with completed treatment (adjusted OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.36); obtaining AL in the evening was associated with timely completion (adjusted OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.19, 0.64). Factors associated with adherence in each sector were examined separately. In both sectors, recalling correct instructions was positively associated with both adherence measures. In health facility patients, but not ADDO patients, taking the first dose of AL at the outlet was associated with timely completion (adjusted OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.46, 3.04). CONCLUSION: When controlling for patient characteristics, there was some evidence that the adjusted odds of adherence for ADDO patients was lower than that for public health facility patients. Better understanding is needed of which patient care aspects are most important for adherence, including the role of effective provision of advice

Rotavirus group : a genotype circulation patterns across Kenya before and after nationwide vaccine introduction, 2010-2018

Background Kenya introduced the monovalent G1P [8] Rotarix® vaccine into the infant immunization schedule in July 2014. We examined trends in rotavirus group A (RVA) genotype distribution pre- (January 2010–June 2014) and post- (July 2014–December 2018) RVA vaccine introduction. Methods Stool samples were collected from children aged < 13 years from four surveillance sites across Kenya: Kilifi County Hospital, Tabitha Clinic Nairobi, Lwak Mission Hospital, and Siaya County Referral Hospital (children aged < 5 years only). Samples were screened for RVA using enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and VP7 and VP4 genes sequenced to infer genotypes. Results We genotyped 614 samples in pre-vaccine and 261 in post-vaccine introduction periods. During the pre-vaccine introduction period, the most frequent RVA genotypes were G1P [8] (45.8%), G8P [4] (15.8%), G9P [8] (13.2%), G2P [4] (7.0%) and G3P [6] (3.1%). In the post-vaccine introduction period, the most frequent genotypes were G1P [8] (52.1%), G2P [4] (20.7%) and G3P [8] (16.1%). Predominant genotypes varied by year and site in both pre and post-vaccine periods. Temporal genotype patterns showed an increase in prevalence of vaccine heterotypic genotypes, such as the commonly DS-1-like G2P [4] (7.0 to 20.7%, P < .001) and G3P [8] (1.3 to 16.1%, P < .001) genotypes in the post-vaccine introduction period. Additionally, we observed a decline in prevalence of genotypes G8P [4] (15.8 to 0.4%, P < .001) and G9P [8] (13.2 to 5.4%, P < .001) in the post-vaccine introduction period. Phylogenetic analysis of genotype G1P [8], revealed circulation of strains of lineages G1-I, G1-II and P [8]-1, P [8]-III and P [8]-IV. Considerable genetic diversity was observed between the pre and post-vaccine strains, evidenced by distinct clusters. Conclusion Genotype prevalence varied from before to after vaccine introduction. Such observations emphasize the need for long-term surveillance to monitor vaccine impact. These changes may represent natural secular variation or possible immuno-epidemiological changes arising from the introduction of the vaccine. Full genome sequencing could provide insights into post-vaccine evolutionary pressures and antigenic diversity

Comparison of the microbial composition of African fermented foods using amplicon sequencing

Fermented foods play a major role in the diet of people in Africa, where a wide variety of raw materials are fermented. Understanding the microbial populations of these products would help in the design of specific starter cultures to produce standardized and safer foods. In this study, the bacterial diversity of African fermented foods produced from several raw materials (cereals, milk, cassava, honey, palm sap, and locust beans) under different conditions (household, small commercial producers or laboratory) in 8 African countries was analysed by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing during the Workshop “Analysis of the Microbiomes of Naturally Fermented Foods Training Course”. Results show that lactobacilli were less abundant in fermentations performed under laboratory conditions compared to artisanal or commercial fermentations. Excluding the samples produced under laboratory conditions, lactobacilli is one of the dominant groups in all the remaining samples. Genera within the order Lactobacillales dominated dairy, cereal and cassava fermentations. Genera within the order Lactobacillales, and genera Zymomonas and Bacillus were predominant in alcoholic beverages, whereas Bacillus and Lactobacillus were the dominant genera in the locust bean sample. The genus Zymomonas was reported for the first time in dairy, cereal, cassava and locust bean fermentations

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in three epidemiological zones of Kenya

Understanding respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation patterns is necessary to guide the timing of limited‐duration interventions such as vaccines. We describe RSV circulation over multiple seasons in three distinct counties of Kenya during 2006‐2018. Kilifi and Siaya counties each had consistent but distinct RSV seasonality, lasting on average 18‐22 weeks. Based on data from available years, RSV did not have a clear pattern of circulation in Nairobi. This information can help guide the timing of vaccines and immunoprophylaxis products that are under development

Small-scale field evaluation of transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons and sandals for the control of malaria vectors in rural Tanzania

Background: Early-evening and outdoor-biting mosquitoes may compromise the effectiveness of frontline malaria interventions, notably insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of low-cost insecticide-treated eave ribbons and sandals as supplementary interventions against indoor-biting and outdoor-biting mosquitoes in south-eastern Tanzania, where ITNs are already widely used. Methods: This study was conducted in three villages, with 72 households participating (24 households per village). The households were divided into four study arms and assigned: transfluthrin-treated sandals (TS), transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons (TER), a combination of TER and TS, or experimental controls. Each arm had 18 households, and all households received new ITNs. Mosquitoes were collected using double net traps (to assess outdoor biting), CDC light traps (to assess indoor biting), and Prokopack aspirators (to assess indoor resting). Protection provided by the interventions was evaluated by comparing mosquito densities between the treatment and control arms. Additional tests were done in experimental huts to assess the mortality of wild mosquitoes exposed to the treatments or controls. Results: TERs reduced indoor-biting, indoor-resting and outdoor-biting Anopheles arabiensis by 60%, 73% and 41%, respectively, while TS reduced the densities by 18%, 40% and 42%, respectively. When used together, TER &amp; TS reduced indoor-biting, indoor-resting and outdoor-biting An. arabiensis by 53%, 67% and 57%, respectively. Protection against Anopheles funestus ranged from 42 to 69% with TER and from 57 to 74% with TER &amp; TS combined. Mortality of field-collected mosquitoes exposed to TER, TS or both interventions was 56–78% for An. arabiensis and 47–74% for An. funestus. Conclusion: Transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons and sandals or their combination can offer significant household-level protection against malaria vectors. Their efficacy is magnified by the transfluthrin-induced mortality, which was observed despite the prevailing pyrethroid resistance in the study area. These results suggest that TER and TS could be useful supplementary tools against residual malaria transmission in areas where ITN coverage is high but additional protection is needed against early-evening and outdoor-biting mosquitoes. Further research is needed to validate the performance of these tools in different settings, and assess their long-term effectiveness and feasibility for malaria control