55 research outputs found
Comments on "Effective Forecasting and Judgemental adjustments: An Empirical Evaluation and Strategies for Improvement in supply-chain planning
Cataloged from PDF version of article.Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a computerized forecasting system to produce initial forecasts and the subsequent judgmental adjustment of these forecasts by the company's demand planners, ostensibly to take into account exceptional circumstances expected over the planning horizon. Making these adjustments can involve considerable management effort and time, but do they improve accuracy, and are some types of adjustment more effective than others? To investigate this, we collected data on more than 60,000 forecasts and outcomes from four supply-chain companies. In three of the companies, on average, judgmental adjustments increased accuracy. However, a detailed analysis revealed that, while the relatively larger adjustments tended to lead to greater average improvements in accuracy, the smaller adjustments often damaged accuracy. In addition, positive adjustments, which involved adjusting the forecast upwards, were much less likely to improve accuracy than negative adjustments. They were also made in the wrong direction more frequently, suggesting a general bias towards optimism. Models were then developed to eradicate such biases. Based on both this statistical analysis and organisational observation, the paper goes on to analyse strategies designed to enhance the effectiveness of judgmental adjustments directly
Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices
Cataloged from PDF version of article.This paper reports the results of an experiment in stock-price forecasting that investigated the effects of feedback
on various dimensions of probability forecasting accuracy. Three types of feedback were used: (1) simple outcome
feedback, (2) outcome feedback presented in the task format, and (3) performance feedback in the form of an
overall accuracy score in addition to detailed calibration information. While calibration improved for all the
feedback groups, forecasters' skill was found to improve only for the task-formated outcome feedback and
performance feedback groups (but not for the simple outcome feedback group). Finally, the forecasters in the
performance feedback group also improved their mean slope and mean probability scores, an effect not observed in
the other feedback groups. It is suggested that, in a dynamic environment like the stock market, probability
forecasting offers distinct advantages by providing an important channel of communication between the forecasters
and the users of financial information
Towards a pedagogy for critical security studies: politics of migration in the classroom
International Relations (IR) has increasingly paid attention to critical pedagogy. Feminist, post-colonial and poststructuralist IR scholarship, in particular, have long been advancing the discussions about how to create a pluralist and democratic classroom where âthe othersâ of politics can be heard by the students, who can critically reflect upon complex power relations in global politics. Despite its normative position, Critical Security Studies (CSS) has so far refrained from joining this pedagogical conversation. Deriving from the literatures of postcolonial and feminist pedagogical practices, it is argued that an IR scholar in the area of CSS can contribute to the production of a critical political subject in the 'uncomfortable classroom', who reflects on violent practices of security. Three pedagogical methods will be introduced: engaging with the studentsâ life worlds, revealing the positionality of security knowledge claims, and opening up the class-room to the choices about how the youthâs agency can be performed beyond the classroom. The argument is illustrated through the case of forced migration with specific reference to IR and Politics studentsâ perceptions of Syrian refugees in Turkey. The article advances the discussions in critical IR pedagogy and encourages CSS scholarship to focus on teaching in accordance with its normative position
Scenario generation and scenario quality using the cone of plausibility
The intelligence analysis domain is a critical area for futures work. Indeed, intelligence analystsâ judgments of security threats are based on considerations of how futures may unfold, and as such play a vital role in informing policy- and decision-making. In this domain, futures are typically considered using qualitative scenario generation techniques such as the cone of plausibility (CoP). We empirically examined the quality of scenarios generated using this technique on five criteria: completeness, context (otherwise known as ârelevance/pertinenceâ), plausibility, coherence, and order effects (i.e., âtransparencyâ). Participants were trained to use the CoP and then asked to generate scenarios that might follow within six months of the Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering the country. On average, participants generated three scenarios, and these could be characterized as baseline, best case, and worst case. All scenarios were significantly more likely to be of high quality on the âcoherenceâ criterion compared to the other criteria. Scenario quality was independent of scenario type. However, scenarios generated first were significantly more likely to be of high quality on the context and order effects criteria compared to those generated afterwards. We discuss the implications of these findings for the use of the CoP as well as other qualitative scenario generation techniques in futures studies
Effects of Task Format on Probabilistic Forecasting of stock prices
Cataloged from PDF version of article.This study aims to explore the differences in various dimensions of forecasting accuracy that may result from the
task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts. In particular, we examine the effects of using multiple-interval
and dichotomous formats on the performance of portfolio managers' probabilistic forecasts of stock prices.
Probabilistic forecasts of these experts are compared with those provided by semi-experts comprised of other
banking professionals trained in portfolio management, as well as with forecasts provided by a novice group. The
results suggest that the task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts has a differential impact on the
performance of experts, semi-experts, and novices. The implications of these findings for financial forecasting are
discussed and directions for future research are given
The Effects of feedback on judgmental interval predictions
Cataloged from PDF version of article.The majority of studies of probability judgment have found that judgments tend to be overconfident and that the degree of
overconfidence is greater the more difficult the task. Further, these effects have been resistant to attempts to âdebiasâ via
feedback. We propose that under favourable conditions, provision of appropriate feedback should lead to significant
improvements in calibration, and the current study aims to demonstrate this effect. To this end, participants first specified ranges
within which the true values of time series would fall with a given probability. After receiving feedback, forecasters constructed
intervals for new series, changing their probability values if desired. The series varied systematically in terms of their
characteristics including amount of noise, presentation scale, and existence of trend. Results show that forecasts were initially
overconfident but improved significantly after feedback. Further, this improvement was not simply due to âhedgingâ, i.e.
shifting to very high probability estimates and extremely wide intervals; rather, it seems that calibration improvement was
chiefly obtained by forecasters learning to evaluate the extent of the noise in the series.
D 2003 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Using scenarios to forecast outcomes of a refugee crisis
The Syrian civil war has led to millions of Syrians fleeing the country, and has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. By considering how such socio-political events may unfold, scenarios can lead to informed forecasts that can be used for decision-making. We examined the relationship between scenarios and forecasts in the context of the Syrian refugee crisis. Forty Turkish students trained to use a brainstorming technique generated scenarios that might follow within six months of the Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering the country. Participants generated from 3-6 scenarios. Over half were rated as âhighâ quality in terms of completeness, relevance/pertinence, plausibility, coherence, and transparency (order effects). Scenario quality was unaffected by scenario quantity. Even though no forecasts were requested, participantsâ first scenarios contained from 0-17 forecasts. Mean forecast accuracy was 45% and this was unaffected by forecast quantity. Therefore, brainstorming can offer a simple and quick way of generating scenarios and forecasts that can potentially help decision-makers tackle humanitarian crises
The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning
An already pressing need to evidence the effectiveness of futures and foresight tools has been further amplified by the coronavirus pandemic, which highlighted more mainstream toolsâ difficulty with uncertainty. In light of this, the recent discussion in this journal on providing futures and foresight science with a stronger scientific basis is welcome. In this discussion critical realism has been proffered as a useful philosophical foundation and experiments a useful method for improving this fieldâs scientific basis. Yet, experiments seek to isolate specific causal effects through closure (i.e., by controlling for all extraneous factors) and this may cause it to jar with critical realismâs emphasis on uncertainty and openness. We therefore extend the recent discussion on improving the scientific basis of futures and foresight science by doing three things. Firstly, we elaborate on critical realism and why the experimental method may jar with it. Secondly, we explain why the distinction between a conceptual and a direct replication can help overcome this jarring, meaning experiments can still be a valuable research tool for a futures and foresight science underpinned by critical realism. Thirdly, we consider the appropriate unit of analysis for experiments on futures and foresight tools. In so doing, we situate the recent discussion on improving the scientific basis of futures and foresight science within the much longer running one on improving the scientific basis of business, management and strategy research more broadly. We use the case of scenario planning to illustrate our argument in relation to futures and foresight science
Effects of Structural Characteristics of Explanations on Use of a DSS
Cataloged from PDF version of article.Research in the field of expert systems has shown that providing supporting explanations may influence effective use of system developed advice. However, despite many studies showing the less than optimal use made of DSS prepared advice, almost no research has been undertaken to study if the provision of explanations enhances the users' ability to wisely accept DSS advice. This study outlines an experiment to examine the effects of structural characteristics of explanations provided within a forecasting DSS context. In particular, the effects of explanation length (short vs. long) and the conveyed confidence level (weak vs. strong confidence) are examined. Strongly confident and long explanations are found to be more effective in participants' acceptance of interval forecasts. In addition, explanations with higher information value are more effective than those with low information value and thus are persuasive tools in the presentation of advice to users. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy
Cataloged from PDF version of article.While behavioral research on forecasting has mostly examined the individual forecaster, organizationally-based forecasting
processes typically tend to rely on groups with members from different functional areas for arriving at âconsensusâ forecasts. The
forecasting performance could also vary depending on the particular group structuring utilized in reaching a final prediction.
The current study compares the forecasting performance of modified consensus groups with that of staticized groups using
formal role-playing. It is found that, when undistorted model forecasts are given, group forecasts (whether they are arrived
at through averaging or by a detailed discussion of the forecasts) contribute positively to the forecasting accuracy. However,
providing distorted initial forecasts affects the final accuracy with varying degrees of improvement over the initial forecasts.
The results show a strong tendency to favor optimistic forecasts for both the staticized and modified consensus group forecasts.
Overall, the role modifications are found to be successful in eliciting a differential adjustment behavior, effectively mimicking
the disparities between different organizational roles. Current research suggests that group discussions may be an efficient
method of displaying and resolving differential motivational contingencies, potentially leading to group forecasts that perform
quite well.
âc 2010 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
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