Turkey and the European Union: possible incidence of the EU accession on migration flows

This paper analyzes possible incidences of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail.Economy of migration, Turkey, EU Enlargement, panel data, seemingly unrelated regression

Turkey and the Europan Union: Possible incidence of the EU accession on migration flows

This paper analyzes possible incidences of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail

Migration and remittances in the CEECs: A case study of Ukrainian labour migrants in the Czech Republic

This paper aims to analyse migration and remittances in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) on the case study of Ukrainian labour migrants in the Czech Republic using primary data from survey questionnaires collected by the Ukrainian Migration Project (UMP). More specifically, it seeks to examine features and determinants of migration and remittances sent by Ukrainian labour migrants from the Czech Republic to Ukraine. Our results show that in the case of Ukrainian migrants in the Czech Republic the main determinants of the decision whether to migrate, in order to provide own families with additional income, are demographic characteristics and income of the receiving household, while the level of education does not affect this decision. Further, we found that the remitted amount depends mainly on the labour migrant's income in the Czech Republic. No statistical significance was found in the relationship between the remitted amount and the income level of the receiving household. Moreover, we did not find any support for channelling remittances primarily into non-productive consumption in the data. On the other hand, no other productive spending besides the spending on house construction was confirmed either. Good understanding of determinants and motives that are interconnected with them should be helpful for policymakers on both sides of the migration corridor to formulate proper policies that aim at influencing the migration and remittances flows. Thus, certain policy implications might be derived from this research in order to channel Ukrainian migration in CEECs and benefit from remittance transfers

Možný dopad Tureckého vstupu do EU: vývoj migračních toků

V této práci jsou aplikovány panel data odhady na migrační data z 18 Evropských zemí do Německa, abychom mohli odhadnout budoucí migraci. Na základě odhadnutých výsledků jsme předpověděli migrační toky z Turecka do Evropské Unie. Nejprve popíšeme rámec a historii Turecké migrace do Evropské Unie a poté představíme migraci z ekonomického pohledu. V hlavní části této práce budou spojeny obě předchozí kapitoly. Zkonstruovali jsme panel data model a otestovali data, abychom potvrdili hypotézu o cointegraci proměnných. Seemingly unrelated regresor se ukázal jako nejefektivnější odhad na daná data. Výsledky odhalili, že největší vliv na migraci má síťový efekt, následovaný podmínkami na pracovním trhu cílové země a že vliv důchodového efektu je relativně zanedbatelný. Zvláště Turecký důchodový efekt nemá v podstatě žádný vliv na migraci, protože vstupuje do modelu ve dvou proměnných, které působí proti sobě. Také byla nalezena malá důležitost otevření pracovního trhu na růst migrace. Nakonec jsme použili odhadnuté koeficienty pro předpověď budoucí migrace do Německa a skrz extrapolaci do Evropské Unie. Byli zkonstruovány tři různé scénáře možné migrace a také byla prozkoumána sensitivita odhadnutých koeficientů na migraci z Turecka do Německa v následujících 25 letech.In this thesis we apply the panel data estimators on the migration data from 18 European Countries into Germany to construct forecast of future migrations. Based on the estimated results we forecast the migration flows from Turkey into the European Union. In the first two chapters the framework and background of the Turkish EU migration is described and migration as a stand alone economic phenomenon. In a main part of the thesis the first two sections are combined. The panel data model is constructed and the data are successfully tested for cointegration. We find that the seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator in this framework. Results reveal that the network effect is the strongest driver for the migration followed by the target country labour market conditions and the income effect is actually relatively small. Particularly, the Turkish income does not have any effect on migration, because it is entering the model in a two variables that are working against each other. Also the low importance of opening a labour market is found. Finally the estimated coefficients are used to predict migration to Germany and through appropriate extrapolation to the whole European Union. Three scenarios of migration were created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from...Institut ekonomických studiíInstitute of Economic StudiesFaculty of Social SciencesFakulta sociálních vě

Possible incidence of Turkish EU accession: development of migration flows

In this thesis we apply the panel data estimators on the migration data from 18 European Countries into Germany to construct forecast of future migrations. Based on the estimated results we forecast the migration flows from Turkey into the European Union. In the first two chapters the framework and background of the Turkish EU migration is described and migration as a stand alone economic phenomenon. In a main part of the thesis the first two sections are combined. The panel data model is constructed and the data are successfully tested for cointegration. We find that the seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator in this framework. Results reveal that the network effect is the strongest driver for the migration followed by the target country labour market conditions and the income effect is actually relatively small. Particularly, the Turkish income does not have any effect on migration, because it is entering the model in a two variables that are working against each other. Also the low importance of opening a labour market is found. Finally the estimated coefficients are used to predict migration to Germany and through appropriate extrapolation to the whole European Union. Three scenarios of migration were created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from..

Turkey and the European Union: Possible Incidence of the EU Accession on Migration Flows

This paper analyzes possible incidence of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany, and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail.Turkey, seemingly unrelated regression, panel data, EU enlargement, economy of migration