О перспективах рынка станкостроения с позиций анализа мировых тенденций, концепции жизненного цикла оборудования и CALS-технологий

В статье рассматриваются существующие методики выбора и проектирования нового оборудования с позиций анализа наиболее эффективных видах обработки, проводится анализ недостатков "классического" подхода к выбору оборудования. На основании CALS-технологий, принципа агрегатирования и паспортизации оборудования предлагается новая модель проектирования оборудования, позволяющая продлить жизненный цикл станков, уменьшить стоимость и сроки проектирования и изготовления оборудования.This article reviews the existing methods of choice and design of new equipment from the standpoint of analyzing the most effective forms of treatment, an analysis of the shortcomings of "classical" approach to the choice of equipment. Based on CALS-technologies, the principle of aggregation and certification of equipment, a new model for the design of equipment are proposed. This model allows to extend the life cycle of machines, reduce the cost and terms of designing and manufacturing equipment

In silico analysis of inner ear development using public whole embryonic body single-cell RNA-sequencing data

The inner ear comprises four epithelial domains: the cochlea, vestibule, semicircular canals, and endolymphatic duct/sac. These structures are segregated at embryonic day 13.5 (E13.5). However, these four anatomical structures remain undefined at E10.5. Here, we aimed to identify lineage-specific genes in the early developing inner ear using published data obtained from single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) of embryonic mice. We downloaded 5000 single-cell transcriptome data, named ‘auditory epithelial trajectory’, from the Mouse Organogenesis Cell Atlas. The dataset was supposed to include otic epithelial cells at E9.5–13.5. We projected the 5000 ​cells onto a two-dimensional space encoding the transcriptional state and visualised the pattern of otic epithelial cell differentiation. We identified 15 clusters, which were annotated as one of the four components of the inner ear epithelium using known genes that characterise the four different tissues. Additionally, we classified 15 clusters into sub-regions of the four inner ear components. By comparing transcriptomes between these 15 clusters, we identified several candidates of lineage-specific genes. Characterising these new candidate genes will help future studies about inner ear development

Real-time Investigation of Measles Epidemics with Estimate of Vaccine Efficacy

As part of measles elimination effort, evaluation of the vaccination program and real-time assessment of the epidemic dynamics constitute two important tasks to improve and strengthen the control. The present study aimed to develop an epidemiological modeling method which can be applied to estimating the vaccine efficacy at an individual level while conducting the timely investigation of the epidemic. The multivariate renewal process model was employed to describe the temporal evolution of infection by vaccination history, jointly estimating the time-dependent reproduction number and the vaccine efficacy. Analyzing the enhanced surveillance data of measles in Aichi prefecture, Japan from 2007-08, the vaccine efficacy was estimated at 96.7% (95% confidence interval: 95.8, 97.4). Using an age structured model, the vaccine efficacy among those aged from 5-19 years was shown to be smaller than that among those from 0-4 years. The age-dependent vaccine efficacy estimate informs the age-groups to be targeted for revaccination. Because the estimation method can rest on readily available epidemiological data, the proposed model has a potential to be integrated with routine surveillance

Human movement decisions during Coronavirus Disease 2019

To predict epidemics' future course in changing situations, understanding human mobility patterns is important, notwithstanding decision-making process uncertainties owing to difficulties in quantifying people's mobility change decision timings, which make the mobility-epidemic causal relationship unclear. We used the 'mobility avoidance index' to investigate time-series changes during Japan's Coronavirus Disease 2019 (eight waves until February 2023) as a previous study, which measured this index using accommodation reservation data-booking/cancellation timings-was able to quantify the timing of decision-making for mobility changes. Our analyses revealed two general patterns: 1) the index increased/decreased proportional to logarithms of reported cases during the first wave, conforming with Weber-Fechner's psychophysics law; 2) its slope against the change in the number of reported cases had similar values among the waves, but its intercepts changed as the waves passed, suggesting that people neglected reported cases lower than a certain threshold for behavioural decision-making. We shifted the threshold level as the waves passed, and named this pattern 'shift of negligible epidemic' rule. It is the first pattern quantitatively observed, that possesses decision making tendencies for future mobility avoidance. Our findings contribute to constructing a mathematical model, which simultaneously considers epidemics and human mobility dynamics

The Time Required to Estimate the Case Fatality Ratio of Influenza Using Only the Tip of an Iceberg: Joint Estimation of the Virulence and the Transmission Potential

Estimating the case fatality ratio (CFR) of a novel strain of influenza virus during the early stage of the pandemic is one of key epidemiological tasks to be conducted as rapid research response. Past experience during the epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza A (H1N1-2009) posed several technical challenges in estimating the CFR in real time. The present study aimed to develop a simple method to estimate the CFR based on readily available datasets, that is, confirmed cases and deaths, while addressing some of the known technical issues. To assess the reliability and validity of the proposed method, we examined the minimum length of time required for the assigned CFR to be included within the 95% confidence intervals and for the estimated CFR to be below a prespecified cut-off value by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Overall, the smaller the transmission potential was, the longer it took to compare the estimated CFR against the cut-off value. If policymaking and public health response have to be made based on the CFR estimate derived from the proposed method and readily available data, it should be noted that the successful estimation may take longer than a few months

疫学モデルにおける不均一要素の理論研究

Preface / Chapter 1 : Coexistence condition for strains with immune cross-reaction / Chapter 2 : The timing of the emergence of new successful strains in seasonal influenza / Chapter 3 : Disrupting seasonality to control disease outbreaks : the case of koi herpes virus / AcknowledgementsSubmitted by 真弓 小柳 ([email protected]) on 2012-04-19T00:11:22Z No. of bitstreams: 2 sls85.pdf: 1372089 bytes, checksum: 690a7620c67c0904662c1cdcca79b550 (MD5) sls85_abstract.pdf: 139724 bytes, checksum: 960747a9c0b1c74dcf846be959dff972 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2012-04-19T00:11:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 sls85.pdf: 1372089 bytes, checksum: 690a7620c67c0904662c1cdcca79b550 (MD5) sls85_abstract.pdf: 139724 bytes, checksum: 960747a9c0b1c74dcf846be959dff972 (MD5)主1理論疫学とは感染症の流行ダイナミクスを理論的に解析する学問であり、感染症流行抑制に非常に重要である。理論疫学において感染症の流行ダイナミクスはSIRモデルと呼ばれる数理モデルが使われる事が多いが、SIRモデルの基本式は実際の感染症の解析に使えない事が多い。その理由として、不均一性があげられる。不均一性の例として、病原体の抗原性の進化、感染率の季節変動性、感受性を持つ宿主の年齢、宿主体内での病原体の増殖ダイナミクス、宿主の接触ネットワークが挙げられる。本論文では、この中で特に、病原体の抗原性の進化、感染率の季節変動性、宿主体内での病原体の増殖ダイナミクスに注目し、これらをSIRモデルに適用し解析した

Dynamics of non-cohabiting sex partnering in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study with implications for HIV transmission.

OBJECTIVE: To develop an analytical understanding of non-cohabiting sex partnering in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using nationally representative sexual behaviour data. METHOD: A non-homogenous Poisson stochastic process model was used to describe the dynamics of non-cohabiting sex. The model was applied to 25 countries in SSA and was fitted to Demographic and Health Survey data. The country-specific mean values and variances of the distributions of number of non-cohabiting partners were estimated. RESULTS: The model yielded overall robust fits to the empirical distributions stratified by marital status and sex. The median across all country-specific mean values was highest for unmarried men at 0.574 non-cohabiting partners over the last 12 months, followed by that of unmarried women at 0.337, married men at 0.192 and married women at 0.038. The median of variances was highest for unmarried men at 0.127, followed by married men at 0.057, unmarried women at 0.003 and married women at 0.000. The largest variability in mean values across countries was for unmarried men (0.103-1.206), and the largest variability in variances was among unmarried women (0.000-1.994). CONCLUSIONS: Non-cohabiting sex appears to be a random 'opportunistic' phenomenon linked to situations that may facilitate it. The mean values and variances of number of partners in SSA show wide variation by country, marital status and sex. Unmarried individuals have larger mean values than their married counterparts, and men have larger mean values than women. Unmarried individuals appear to play a disproportionate role in driving heterogeneity in sexual networks and possibly epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections