Data-driven malaria prevalence prediction in large densely populated urban holoendemic sub-Saharan West Africa

Over 200 million malaria cases globally lead to half-million deaths annually. The development of malaria prevalence prediction systems to support malaria care pathways has been hindered by lack of data, a tendency towards universal "monolithic" models (one-size-fits-all-regions) and a focus on long lead time predictions. Current systems do not provide short-term local predictions at an accuracy suitable for deployment in clinical practice. Here we show a data-driven approach that reliably produces one-month-ahead prevalence prediction within a densely populated all-year-round malaria metropolis of over 3.5 million inhabitants situated in Nigeria which has one of the largest global burdens of P. falciparum malaria. We estimate one-month-ahead prevalence in a unique 22-years prospective regional dataset of > 9 × 10^{4} participants attending our healthcare services. Our system agrees with both magnitude and direction of the prediction on validation data achieving MAE ≤ 6 × 10^{-2}, MSE ≤ 7 × 10^{-3}, PCC (median 0.63, IQR 0.3) and with more than 80% of estimates within a (+ 0.1 to - 0.05) error-tolerance range which is clinically relevant for decision-support in our holoendemic setting. Our data-driven approach could facilitate healthcare systems to harness their own data to support local malaria care pathways

Urban Environmental Noise Pollution and Perceived Health Effects in Ibadan, Nigeria

Urban environmental noise pollution has impact on the quality of life and it is a serious health and social problem. The aim of this study was to assess the sources and noise levels, and possible impacts in selected residential neighbourhoods of Ibadan metropolis. Structured questionnaire was used to elicit information from respondents on demographic and neighbourhood characteristics, sources of noise and perceived effects of noise pollution. Noise level meter was used to determine the noise levels. Results showed that noise levels, sources and the period the noise level reaches its peak vary with population density and are shown on GIS maps. The mean noise values for the three residential neighbourhood groups were low density (LD), 53.10±2.80dB; medium density (MD), 68.45± 2.10dB and high density (HD), 68.36±1.92dB with the medium density neighbourhoods having the highest mean value. There is a significant difference in the noise levels in the three neighbourhood groups (F value=11.88 and p=0.000). However, the difference in noise levels between HD/LD and LD/MD areas was significant (p=0.000) while that between HD/MD areas was not significant (p=0.975). Of the three residential neighbourhoods, the highest mean noise level (85.80dB) was recorded at Bere junction while the lowest was at the foot of Bowers tower at Oke Are (48.65dB). Based on WHO 16-hour DNL criteria of 55dB for residential areas, only 16 (23.2%) locations in the three residential neighbourhood groups had noise values that were within the recommended limit. The study concludes that there is a need for formulation and enforcement of permissible noise levels/standards for residential neighbourhoods by the Federal Ministry of Environment instead of using the current eight-hour standard of 90dB which is for industrial settings

Occupational Safety and Health Staging Framework for Decent Work

The 2030 United Nations Goal 8 for sustainable development focuses on decent work. There is utility in identifying the occupational safety and health aspects of Goal 8, as they pertain to the four pillars of decent work: job creation, social protection, rights of workers, and social dialogue. A workgroup of the International Commission on Occupational Health and collaborators addressed the issue of decent work and occupational safety and health (OSH) with the objective of elaborating a framework for guidance for practitioners, researchers, employers, workers, and authorities. This article presents that framework, which is based on an examination of the literature and the perspectives of the workgroup. The framework encompasses the intersection of the pillars of decent (employment creation, social protection, rights of workers, and social dialogue) work with new and emerging hazards and risks related to various selected determinants: new technologies and new forms of work; demographics (aging and gender); globalization; informal work; migration; pandemics; and OSH policies and climate change. The OSH field will need an expanded focus to address the future of decent work. This focus should incorporate the needs of workers and workforces in terms of their well-being. The framework identifies a starting point for the OSH community to begin to promote decent work