Tsunami hazard induced by a newly discovered landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

Deltas are sedimentary bodies with high sedimentation rates that are very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions. The Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal) is characterized by the presence of high energy deposit and erosive structures with an estimated age of approximately 8 ky BP. In this work, we investigate, through numerical modelling, the tsunami hazard induced by a newly discovered underwater landslide at the Tagus delta. The Tagus delta landslide is more than 9 km of length (parallel to the delta front) and more than 3 km of width with a maximum thickness of ∼20 m with a volume of approximately 0.27 km3. To model the landslide downslope movement and its induced tsunami we employed a Bingham visco-plastic model coupled to non-linear shallow water equations. The numerical simulations are performed over a high-resolution paleo-bathymetry that allows evaluating the tsunami hazard at the time of the landslide failure. We constructed the paleo-bathymetric model of the Tagus delta taking into consideration the sedimentation rates, the age of the landslide, and the paleo mean sea level. Additionally, we evaluate the tsunami hazard resulting from the occurrence of a similar-size Tagus landslide at the present-day bathymetric and sea-level conditions. Results show that landslides at the Tagus delta pose a significant tsunami hazard to the surrounding coasts, particularly in Lisbon. Therefore, more attention must be given to shallow water submarine landslides and their induced tsunamis in the marine Geo-hazards assessment of the region. This work is supported by the FCT funded projects: MAGICLAND - MArine Geo-hazards InduCed by underwater LANDslides in the SW Iberian Margin (Ref: PTDC/CTA-GEO/30381/2017), TAGUSGAS - Tsunami hazard assessment of the Lisbon city associated to the Tagus delta landslide (Ref: PTDC 2017 - PTDC/CTAGEO/31885/2017), and TagusDelta - 3D high-resolution seismic stratigraphy of the Tagus Delta – imaging of tsunami and earthquake evidence for natural hazards assessment (Ref: PTDC/MAR/113888/2009)

Evaluating tsunami impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic)

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities

Potential inundation of Lisbon downtown by a 1755-like tsunami

In this study, we present 10 m resolution tsunami flooding maps for Lisbon downtown and the Tagus estuary. To compute these maps we use the present bathymetry and topographic maps and a reasonable estimate for the maximum credible tsunami scenario. Tsunami modeling was made with a non-linear shallow water model using four levels of nested grids. The tsunami flood is discussed in terms of flow depth, run-up height and maximum inundation area. The results show that, even today, in spite of the significant morphologic changes in the city river front after the 1755 earthquake, a similar event would cause tsunami flow depths larger than one meter in a large area along the Tagus estuary and Lisbon downtown. Other areas along the estuary with a high population density would also be strongly affected. The impact of the tide on the extent of tsunami inundation is discussed, due to the large amplitude range of the tide in Lisbon, and compared with the historical descriptions of the 1755 event. The results presented here can be used to identify the potential tsunami inundation areas in Lisbon; this identification comprises a key element of the Portuguese tsunami emergency management system

Identification of tsunami-induced deposits using numerical modeling and rock magnetism techniques: a study case of the 1755 Lisbon tsunami in Algarve, Portugal

Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. Here we propose an original approach to identify tsunami-induced deposits by combining numerical simulation and rock magnetism. To test our method, we investigate the tsunami deposit of the Boca do Rio estuary generated by the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon which is well described in the literature. We first test the 1755 tsunami scenario using a numerical inundation model to provide physical parameters for the tsunami wave. Then we use concentration (MS. SIRM) and grain size (chi(ARM), ARM, B1/2, ARM/SIRM) sensitive magnetic proxies coupled with SEM microscopy to unravel the magnetic mineralogy of the tsunami-induced deposit and its associated depositional mechanisms. In order to study the connection between the tsunami deposit and the different sedimentologic units present in the estuary, magnetic data were processed by multivariate statistical analyses. Our numerical simulation show a large inundation of the estuary with flow depths varying from 0.5 to 6 m and run up of similar to 7 m. Magnetic data show a dominance of paramagnetic minerals (quartz) mixed with lesser amount of ferromagnetic minerals, namely titanomagnetite and titanohematite both of a detrital origin and reworked from the underlying units. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate a better connection between the tsunami-induced deposit and a mixture of Units C and D. All these results point to a scenario where the energy released by the tsunami wave was strong enough to overtop and erode important amount of sand from the littoral dune and mixed it with reworked materials from underlying layers at least 1 m in depth. The method tested here represents an original and promising tool to identify tsunami-induced deposits in similar embayed beach environments

Third Generation Tsunami scenario matrix for the Portuguese Tsunami Early Warning System

In Portugal, the Instituto de Meteorologia (IM) is the institution responsible for the Portuguese seismic network and it is the candidate to host the Portuguese Tsunami Warning System. One critical component of the system is the scenario database and the Tsunami Analysis Tool that help the operator to take decisions during the course of the event. This paper describes the progress done since 2008 conducting to the 3rd generation of the scenario database that provides a higher resolution modeling at the coastline for the whole North Atlantic. The 3rd generation scenarios are initiated by a simulation domain with a coarse bathymetry cell size (2 min). This initial calculation establishes the adequate initial and boundary conditions to 3 other domain calculations with a much finer cell size (0.25 min). The high-resolution calculation is performed only close to the coast in order to reduce the CPU time.JRC.G.2-Global security and crisis managemen

Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using numerical modelling and GIS tools

Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco's coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards

Design of a sea-level tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz

The devastating impact of the Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, raised the question for scientists of how to forecast a tsunami threat. In 2005, the IOC-UNESCO XXIII assembly decided to implement a global tsunami warning system to cover the regions that were not yet protected, namely the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and the North East Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (the NEAM region). Within NEAM, the Gulf of Cadiz is the more sensitive area, with an important record of devastating historical events. The objective of this paper is to present a preliminary design for a reliable tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz, based on a network of sea-level observatories. The tsunamigenic potential of this region has been revised in order to define the active tectonic structures. Tsunami hydrodynamic modeling and GIS technology have been used to identify the appropriate locations for the minimum number of sea-level stations. Results show that 3 tsunameters are required as the minimum number of stations necessary to assure an acceptable protection to the large coastal population in the Gulf of Cadiz. In addition, 29 tide gauge stations could be necessary to fully assess the effects of a tsunami along the affected coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco

The Tagus River delta (off Lisbon, Portugal) as a repository of landslides. Implications on trigger mechanisms, tsunami hazard and neotectonics.

The seismic stratigraphy of the Tagus estuary ebb-tidal delta of Lisbon (Portugal) is investigated with the purpose of searching for evidences of possible sedimentary or erosive features associated with landslides or mass wasting deposits (MTD) events. A special attention was given to events that could have been triggered by large earthquakes that are known to have struck the West of Portugal and Spain in historical and pre-historical times. These earthquakes destroyed Lisbon at least twice in the last 500 years, being the 1755 Lisbon earthquake of estimated magnitude >8.5. To investigate these geological features the seismic reflection dataset used in this work consists of Chirp (Lisboa98 dataset), Sparker single channel (PACEMAKER 2011 dataset) and multichannel seismic (MCS) data (TAGUSDELTA 2013 dataset). Cross-lines of MCS data were acquired crossing the core sampling sites done in previous works. Calibration of the seismic lines width the core data led to infer that the Tagus ebb delta started its formation around 17ky BP and it consists of two main stratigraphic units, the younger of which initiated its formation at approximately 13ky BP. The lower deltaic unit contains several MTDs and/or landslides that could not be mapped with the present dataset. In the upper unit we report the existence of a landslide with 10km of length, 4.5km of width and 20m of maximum thickness that accounted for the collapse of half of the Tagus river delta front. The internal structure of the landslide varies laterally. The main different aspects are, as follows, i) the landslide can be dismembered along slope due to stretching parallel associated to differential movement along slope, ii) it can show internal discontinuities that represent mechanical detachments that separate imbricate wedges and iii) distal deposited bodies completely detached from the main landslide body. The age of the landslide is discussed; an estimated age of >8ky BP is proposed by stratigraphic correlation with existent cores in the Tagus pro-delta. The trigger mechanisms are discussed; there appears to be a correlation between large earthquakes and tsunami and onshore/offshore high energy deposits. The non-collapsed half of the delta front contains extensive shallow gas of still unknown origin and nature that was found thanks to the seismic surveys carried out in this study. Further geochemical and isotope studies are needed to investigate the origin of the gas as well as geotechnical studies are needed to investigate the rheology and stability of the delta. The stratigraphic model produced for the study area indicates subsidence of tens of meters from Pliocene times as the post-LGM deposits and possible coastal paleo-scarps fit well with the sea level curve for this interval whilst the Pliocene-Lower Quaternary appear to be tens of meters below the same curve. The estimation of the amount of subsidence needs a good chronostratigraphic control of the external continental shelf bodies

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Meso and Macro Tidal Areas. Application to the Cádiz Bay, Spain

ABSTRACT: Tsunami hazard can be analyzed from both deterministic and probabilistic points of view. The deterministic approach is based on a "credible" worst case tsunami, which is often selected from historical events in the region of study. Within the probabilistic approach (PTHA, Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis), statistical analysis can be carried out in particular regions where historical records of tsunami heights and runup are available. In areas where these historical records are scarce, synthetic series of events are usually generated using Monte Carlo approaches. Commonly, the sea level variation and the currents forced by the tidal motion are either disregarded or considered and treated as aleatory uncertainties in the numerical models. However, in zones with a macro and meso tidal regime, the effect of the tides on the probability distribution of tsunami hazard can be highly important. In this work, we present a PTHA methodology based on the generation of synthetic seismic catalogs and the incorporation of the sea level variation into a Monte Carlo simulation. We applied this methodology to the Bay of Cádiz area in Spain, a zone that was greatly damaged by the 1755 earthquake and tsunami. We build a database of tsunami numerical simulations for different variables: faults, earthquake magnitudes, epicenter locations and sea levels. From this database we generate a set of scenarios from the synthetic seismic catalogs and tidal conditions based on the probabilistic distribution of the involved variables. These scenarios cover the entire range of possible tsunami events in the synthetic catalog (earthquakes and sea levels). Each tsunami scenario is propagated using the tsunami numerical model C3, from the source region to the target coast (Cádiz Bay). Finally, we map the maximum values for a given probability of the selected variables (tsunami intensity measures) producing a set of thematic hazard maps. 1000 different time series of combined tsunamigenic earthquakes and tidal levels were synthetically generated using the Monte Carlo technique. Each time series had a 10000-year duration. The tsunami characteristics were statistically analyzed to derive different thematic maps for the return periods of 500, 1000, 5000, and 10000 years, including the maximum wave elevation, the maximum current speed, the maximum Froude number, and the maximum total forces