Measuring the risk management in Latin America

El paradigma de la gestión integral del riesgo y su enfoque conceptual –económico, social y ambiental– que lo subyace, han evolucionado desde el punto de vista teórico de una manera notable en la última década. En particular, el aporte de la Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina (La RED) y de un amplio número de investigadores de la región –que ha abordado la temática de los desastres desde la perspectiva del desarrollo– ha planteado la necesidad de superar los enfoques asistencialistas o puramente tecnocráticos, sobre los cuales, la gestión se ha desarrollado en el pasado, para lograr un avance real en la temática, en el contexto del subdesarrollo. Esta nueva visión, aunque de manera diferencial e incipiente, ha sido adoptada por los países de la región de América Latina y el Caribe, convirtiéndose, en algunos casos, en una nueva política de desarrollo y en tema de especial interés para los organismos multilaterales, como el BID, el Banco Mundial y las agencias de Naciones Unidas. El Instituto de Estudios Ambientales (IDEA) de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales, formuló recientemente un Sistema de Indicadores de Riesgo y Gestión del Riesgo para las Américas, con el apoyo del BID, con el fin de iniciar un monitoreo de la gestión del riesgo en la región. Este sistema incluyó entre sus indicadores el Índice de Gestión del Riesgo (IGR), mediante el cual se hizo una primera “medición” del desempeño y la efectividad de la gestión del riesgo, subdividiendo dicha gestión en cuatro componentes o líneas de acción. Este documento presenta algunas reflexiones sobre el tema y los resultados obtenidos del IGR para América Latina y el Caribe.The paradigm of integrated risk management and its economic, social and environmental framework have had a remarkable evolution from theoretical point of view in the last decade. Particularly, the contribution of the Network for Social Studies on Disaster Prevention in Latin America (La RED) and from a large number of researchers in the region –that have addressed the issue of disaster from the perspective of development– have to pose the need to overcome the purely humanitarian and technocratic approaches, on which management has been developed in the past, in order to achieve real progress in the context of developing countries. This new vision, even if differential and incipient, has been adopted by the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, becoming in some cases a new development policy and a subject of particular interest for multilateral agencies, as the IDB, the World Bank and UN agencies. The Institute for Environmental Studies (IDEA) of the National University of Colombia, Manizales, recently made a System of Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management for the Americas, with the support of the IDB, in order to initiate a monitoring of risk management in the region. This system included among other indicators the Risk Management Index (RMI), which made a first "measurement" of the performance and the effectiveness of risk management, addressing four subcomponents or courses of action. This document presents some reflections on the subject and the results of the RMI for Latin America and the Caribbean.Peer Reviewe

Medición de la gestión del riesgo en América Latina

The paradigm of integrated risk management and its economic, social and environmental framework have had a remarkable evolution from theoretical point of view in the last decade. Particularly, the contribution of the Network for Social Studies on Disaster Prevention in Latin America (La RED) and from a large number of researchers in the region –that have addressed the issue of disaster from the perspective of development– have to pose the need to overcome the purely humanitarian and technocratic approaches, on which management has been developed in the past, in order to achieve real progress in the context of developing countries. This new vision, even if differential and incipient, has been adopted by the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, becoming in some cases a new development policy and a subject of particular interest for multilateral agencies, as the IDB, the World Bank and UN agencies. The Institute for Environmental Studies (IDEA) of the National University of Colombia, Manizales, recently made a System of Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management for the Americas, with the support of the IDB, in order to initiate a monitoring of risk management in the region. This system included among other indicators the Risk Management Index (RMI), which made a first measurement of the performance and the effectiveness of risk management, addressing four subcomponents or courses of action. This document presents some reflections on the subject and the results of the RMI for Latin America and the Caribbean

Comparing observed damages and losses with modelled ones using a probabilistic approach: the Lorca 2011 case

A loss and damage assessment was performed for the buildings of Lorca, Spain, considering an earthquake hazard scenario with similar characteristics to those of a real event which occurred on May 11th, 2011, in terms of epicentre, depth and magnitude while also considering the local soil response. This low-to moderate earthquake caused severe damage and disruption in the region and especially on the city. A building by building resolution database was developed and used for damage and loss assessment. The portfolio of buildings was characterized by means of indexes capturing information from a structural point of view such as age, main construction materials, number of stories, and building class as well as others related to age and vulnerability classes. A replacement cost approach was selected for the analysis in order to calculate the direct losses incurred by the event. Seismic hazard and vulnerability were modelled in a probabilistic way, considering their inherent uncertainties which were also taken into account in the damage and loss calculation process. Losses have been expressed in terms of the mean damage ratio of each dwelling and since the analysis has been performed on a geographical information system platform, the distribution of the damage and its categories was mapped for the entire urban centre. The simulated damages and losses were compared with the observed ones reported by the local authorities and institutions that inspected the city after the event.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Probabilistic estimation of annual lost economic production due to premature deaths because of earthquakes

A methodology to estimate, in a probabilistic way, the annual cost to society of premature deaths because of earthquakes is proposed in this article. The methodology makes use of results obtained by means of prospective and probabilistic seismic risk assessments where expected deaths caused by the collapse of buildings are obtained. Those results, combined with demographic and macroeconomic indicators such as the age distribution, life expectancy at birth, and per capita gross domestic product, are used to estimate the cost to society in terms of lost productivity due to premature mortality because of earthquakes. The proposed methodology does not attempt to estimate nor assign a cost to human lives at any stage, but the one associated to lost productivity at the societal level. One of the descriptors of the methodology is part of the components of the disability adjusted life year, a widely used metric in the public health field that estimates the burden of diseases based mostly on historical data. As an example, the methodology is applied to Medellín, the second largest city of Colombia, finding that the cost of lost productivity due to premature mortality because of earthquakes has a similar order of magnitude to the direct physical losses in the public and private building stock calculated in a previous probabilistic seismic risk assessment

Evaluación probabilista y espectral de la amenaza sísmica de Colombia y su uso en el nuevo código de puentes

En el marco de la actualización del Código Colombiano de Puentes, el Comité AIS-300 ha realizado una evaluación de la amenaza sísmica en roca a nivel nacional utilizando información actualizada con respecto al Estudio General de Amenaza Sísmica realizado para el Reglamento NSR-10, en términos del catálogo utilizado, con 5 años más de información y las relaciones de atenuación de movimiento fuerte, calibradas a partir de registros locales. Para la presente actualización se ha evaluado la amenaza sísmica con un enfoque probabilista y espectral con el objetivo de establecer los valores de los coeficientes sísmicos de diseño, denominados ahora como PGA, Ss y S1, asociados, en esta ocasión, a una probabilidad de excedencia del 7% en 75 años, lo que equivale, aproximadamente, a un período de retorno promedio de 975 años.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2056-4Medellín is the second largest city of Colombia with more than 2 million inhabitants according to the latest census and with more than 240,000 public and private buildings. It is located on an intermediate seismic hazard area according to the seismic zonation of Colombia although no destructive earthquakes have occurred having as a consequence low seismic risk awareness among its inhabitants. Using the results of a fully probabilistic risk assessment of the city with a building by building resolution level and considering the dynamic soil response, average annual losses by sectors as well as casualties and other direct effects are obtained and aggregated at county level. Using the holistic evaluation module of the multi-hazard risk assessment CAPRA platform, EvHo, a comprehensive assessment that considered the social fragility and lack or resilience at county level is performed making use of a set of indicators with the objective of capturing the aggravating conditions of the initial physical impact. The urban seismic risk index, USRi, is obtained at county level which is useful to communicate risk to decision-makers and stakeholders besides making easy identifying potential zones that can be problematic in terms of several dimensions of the vulnerability. This case study is an example of how a multidisciplinary research on disaster risk reduction helps to show how risk analysis can be of high relevance for decision-making processes in disaster risk management.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment in Spain: national and local level case studies

Postprint (published version

Holistic Disaster Risk Evaluation for the Urban Risk Management Plan of Manizales, Colombia

Disaster risk depends on both the physical vulnerability and a wide range of social, economic, and environmental aspects of a society. For a better risk understanding, a holistic or integrated perspective was considered when risk was assessed for the city of Manizales, Colombia. This assessment accounts not only for the expected physical damage and loss, but also for the socioeconomic vulnerability factors that favor second order effects in a disaster. This comprehensive approach allows the identification of different aspects related to physical vulnerability, social fragility, and lack of resilience that can be improved, thus enhancing integrated disaster risk management actions. The outcomes of this comprehensive assessment are currently being used as input to update the disaster risk management plan of Manizales

EVALUATING RISK FROM A HOLISTIC PERSPECTIVE TO IMPROVE RESILIENCE: A SUBNATIONAL LEVEL EVALUATION IN COLOMBIA

Disaster risk is not only associated with the occurrence of intense hazard events but also with the vulnerability conditions that favour or facilitate disasters when such events occur. Vulnerability is closely linked to social processes and governance weaknesses in disaster-prone areas and is usually related to a set of factors of fragility, susceptibility, and lack of resilience of the exposed human settlements. The holistic risk assessment aims to reflect risk from a comprehensive perspective by using, in one hand, the physical risk or potential physical damage directly linked to the occurrence of hazard events and, on the other hand by capturing how underlying risk drivers or amplifiers –social, economic, environmental factors, non-hazard dependent elements, may worsen the current existing physical risk conditions in terms of lack of capacity to anticipate or resist, or to respond and recover from adverse impacts. This article presents the results of the holistic evaluation obtained at subnational level in Colombia in the framework of the Risk Atlas of Colombia of the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management, UNGRD. The evaluation was performed using the probabilistic physical risk results obtained in the multi-hazard risk assessment and 16 socio-economic indicators available for 1,123 municipalities of Colombia. These results are useful to identify risk drivers that are associated not only to the physical vulnerability of the buildings and infrastructure but also to social issues that should be examined and tackled in a comprehensive way.&nbsp