Some Features of Joint Confidence Regions for the Parameters of the Inverse Weibull Distribution

In this paper, we will study the joint confidence regions for the parameters of inverse Weibull distribution in the point of view of record values. One of the applications of the joint confidence regions of the parameters is to find confidence bounds for the functions of the parameters. Joint confidence regions for the parameters of extreme value distribution are also discussed. In this way we will discus some numerical examples with real data set and simulated data, to illustrate the proposed method. A simulation study is performed to compare the proposed joint confidence regions. Keywords: The joint confidence regions, confidence bounds; inverse Weibull distribution, extreme value distribution

An Investigation of Inference of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution Based on Record

In this article, the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates of the generalized extreme value distribution based on record values are investigated. The asymptotic confidence intervals as well as bootstrap confidence are proposed. The Bayes estimators cannot be obtained in closed form so the MCMC method are used to calculate Bayes estimates as well as the credible intervals. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed estimation methods developed here. Keywords: Generalized extreme value distribution, Record values, Maximum likelihood estimation, Bayesian estimation

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Increased Fracture Risk After Bariatric Surgery: a Case-Controlled Study with a Long-Term Follow-Up

Purpose Bariatric surgeries are common procedures due to the high prevalence of obesity. This study aimed to investigate whether bariatric surgery increases fracture risk. Material and Methods It was a case-controlled study. Patients who underwent bariatric surgery during 2011 and 2012 were matched for age (± 5 years) and gender to patients on medical weight management during the same period with a ratio of 1:2. The index date was defined as the date of bariatric surgery for both groups. The subject’s electronic medical records were reviewed retrospectively to identify fractures documented by radiology during January 2020. Results Randomly selected 403 cases were matched to 806 controls with a median age of 36.0 years (IQR 14.0) and 37.0 years (IQR 14.0), respectively. Seventy per cent of the cohort were females. Eighty per cent received sleeve gastrectomy, and the remaining (17%) underwent gastric bypass. The mean duration of follow-up was 8.6 years. The fracture rate was higher in the surgical group as compared to the controls (9.4% vs 3.5%) with a crude odds ratio of 2.71 (95% CI 1.69–4.36). The median duration for time to fracture was 4.17 years for the surgical group and 6.09 years for controls (p-value = 0.097). The most common site of fractures was feet, followed by hands. Apart from a few wrist fractures, there was no typical osteoporotic sites fracture. Conclusion Subjects who underwent bariatric procedures had more non-typical osteoporotic site fractures affecting mainly feet and hands, and fractures tend to occur earlier as compared to controls.Other Information Published in: Obesity Surgery License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0See article on publisher's website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11695-021-05655-9</p

Additional file 1: of Diabetes Intervention Accentuating Diet and Enhancing Metabolism (DIADEM-I): a randomised controlled trial to examine the impact of an intensive lifestyle intervention consisting of a low-energy diet and physical activity on body weight and metabolism in early type 2 diabetes mellitus: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

SPIRIT 2013 Checklist: Recommended items to address in a clinical trial protocol and related documents*. (DOC 124 kb

Diabetes Intervention Accentuating Diet and Enhancing Metabolism (DIADEM-I):a randomised controlled trial to examine the impact of an intensive lifestyle intervention consisting of a low-energy diet and physical activity on body weight and metabolism in early type 2 diabetes mellitus: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Abstract Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity are syndemic and will have a significant impact on affected individuals and healthcare services worldwide. Evidence shows that T2DM remission can be achieved with significant weight loss in those who are younger with early diabetes and requiring fewer medications for glycaemic control. DIADEM-I aims to examine the impact of an intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) using a low-energy diet (LED) meal replacement approach combined with physical activity in younger individuals with early T2DM. Methods The planned study is an ongoing, non-blinded, pragmatic, randomised controlled, parallel-group trial examining the impact of an LED-based ILI on body weight and diabetes remission in younger (18–50 years) T2DM individuals with early diabetes (≤ 3-year duration). The ILI will be compared to usual medical care (UMC). The primary outcome will be weight loss at 12 months. Other key outcomes of interest include diabetes remission, glycaemic control, diabetes complications, cardiovascular health, physical activity, mental health, and quality of life. It is planned for the study to include 138 subjects for assessment of the primary outcome. Safety will be assessed throughout. Discussion If DIADEM-I demonstrates a clinically significant effect for younger individuals with early T2DM, it will inform clinical guidelines and services of the future for management of T2DM. Trial registration ISRCTN: ISRCTN20754766 (date assigned: 7 June 2017); ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT03225339 Registered on 26 June 2017