Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state

Report on the 1st SPARC Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP). April 24-26 April 2013, Reading, UK

Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP), 24-26 April 2013, Reading, UKThe first SPARC Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SPARC-SNAP) workshop was organized in the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, from 24 to 26 April 2013. This was a joint workshop with 3rd SPARC Dynamical Variability (SPARC-DynVar) (Manzini et al., this issue) workshop 22-24 April with the 24th April as a joint day. The joint workshop was well attended and had around 100 participants (http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~pn904784/DynVar_SNAP_Workshop/participant.html) from 16 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, North America, and South America (Participants figure). In the SNAP part of workshop (including the joint day) there were two keynote address, nine invited talks, six contributory talks and 24 posters.The authors are grateful to the Natural Environment Research Council and WCRP-SPARC for their financial support

Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere

Ageratum enation virus Infection Induces Programmed Cell Death and Alters Metabolite Biosynthesis in Papaver somniferum

A previously unknown disease which causes severe vein thickening and inward leaf curl was observed in a number of opium poppy (Papaver somniferum L.) plants. The sequence analysis of full-length viral genome and associated betasatellite reveals the occurrence of Ageratum enation virus (AEV) and Ageratum leaf curl betasatellite (ALCB), respectively. Co-infiltration of cloned agroinfectious DNAs of AEV and ALCB induces the leaf curl and vein thickening symptoms as were observed naturally. Infectivity assay confirmed this complex as the cause of disease and also satisfied the Koch’s postulates. Comprehensive microscopic analysis of infiltrated plants reveals severe structural anomalies in leaf and stem tissues represented by unorganized cell architecture and vascular bundles. Moreover, the characteristic blebs and membranous vesicles formed due to the virus-induced disintegration of the plasma membrane and intracellular organelles were also present. An accelerated nuclear DNA fragmentation was observed by Comet assay and confirmed by TUNEL and Hoechst dye staining assays suggesting virus-induced programmed cell death. Virus-infection altered the biosynthesis of several important metabolites. The biosynthesis potential of morphine, thebaine, codeine, and papaverine alkaloids reduced significantly in infected plants except for noscapine whose biosynthesis was comparatively enhanced. The expression analysis of corresponding alkaloid pathway genes by real time-PCR corroborated well with the results of HPLC analysis for alkaloid perturbations. The changes in the metabolite and alkaloid contents affect the commercial value of the poppy plants

Review: the predictability of the extra-tropical stratosphere on monthly timescales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

Extreme variability of the winter- and spring-time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing stratospheric forecast error may be one way to improve the skill of tropospheric weather forecasts. In this review, the basis for this idea is examined. A range of studies of different stratospheric extreme vortex events shows that they can be skilfully forecasted beyond five days and into the sub-seasonal range (0-30 days) in some cases. Separate studies show that typical errors in forecasting a stratospheric extreme vortex event can alter tropospheric forecasts skill by 5-7% in the extratropics on sub-seasonal timescales. Thus understanding what limits stratospheric predictability is of significant interest to operational forecasting centres. Both limitations in forecasting tropospheric planetary waves and stratospheric model biases have been shown to be important in this context

RNA-Seq of Human Neurons Derived from iPS Cells Reveals Candidate Long Non-Coding RNAs Involved in Neurogenesis and Neuropsychiatric Disorders

Genome-wide expression analysis using next generation sequencing (RNA-Seq) provides an opportunity for in-depth molecular profiling of fundamental biological processes, such as cellular differentiation and malignant transformation. Differentiating human neurons derived from induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) provide an ideal system for RNA-Seq since defective neurogenesis caused by abnormalities in transcription factors, DNA methylation, and chromatin modifiers lie at the heart of some neuropsychiatric disorders. As a preliminary step towards applying next generation sequencing using neurons derived from patient-specific iPSCs, we have carried out an RNA-Seq analysis on control human neurons. Dramatic changes in the expression of coding genes, long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs), pseudogenes, and splice isoforms were seen during the transition from pluripotent stem cells to early differentiating neurons. A number of genes that undergo radical changes in expression during this transition include candidates for schizophrenia (SZ), bipolar disorder (BD) and autism spectrum disorders (ASD) that function as transcription factors and chromatin modifiers, such as POU3F2 and ZNF804A, and genes coding for cell adhesion proteins implicated in these conditions including NRXN1 and NLGN1. In addition, a number of novel lncRNAs were found to undergo dramatic changes in expression, one of which is HOTAIRM1, a regulator of several HOXA genes during myelopoiesis. The increase we observed in differentiating neurons suggests a role in neurogenesis as well. Finally, several lncRNAs that map near SNPs associated with SZ in genome wide association studies also increase during neuronal differentiation, suggesting that these novel transcripts may be abnormally regulated in a subgroup of patients