Markov chain: a predictive model for manpower planning

The use of Mathematical models for manpower planning has increased in recent times for better manpower planning quantitatively. In respect of organizational management, numerous previous studies have applied Markov chain models in describing title or level promotions, demotions, recruitments, withdrawals, or changes of different career development paths to confirm the actual manpower needs of an organization or predict the future manpower needs. The movements of staff called transitions are usually the consequences of promotions, transfer between segments or wastage and recruitment into the system. The objective of the study is to determine the proportions of staff recruited, promoted and withdrawn from the various grades and to forecast the academic staff structure of the university in the next five years. In this paper, we studied the academic staff structure of university of Uyo, Nigeria using Markov chain models. The results showed that there is a steady increase in the number of Graduate Assistants, Senior Lecturer and Associate professors, while, there is a steady decrease in the number of Assistant Lecturer, Lecturer II, Lecturer I, and Professor in the next five years. The model so developed can only be applied when there is no control on recruitment but the research can be extended to include control on recruitment. The model can also be applied in school enrollment projection.Keywords: Markov Chain, Transition Probability Matrix, Manpower Planning, Recruitment, Promotion, Wastag

THE CONCURRENT VALIDITY OF MOCK EXAMINATIONS CONDUCTED BY A NIGERIAN PRIVATE SECONDARY SCHOOL

Achieving test validity is an essential concern in test development, particularly when a test is used for an important purpose. Conducting mock examinations for students in the terminal classes of Senior Secondary Schools (SS3) is fast becoming the norm in Nigeria as various school managements are persuaded that such examinations do not only ascertain the level of readiness of their student for the summative and matriculation examination conducted by independent examination bodies, but also enhances their capacity for the impending external examinations. It is against the backdrop of the perceived significance of mock examinations this study sought to ascertain the concurrent validity of the Mock examinations, conducted by a Nigerian private secondary school, with Nigeria’s Joint Admission Matriculation Board Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination [JAMB-UTME]. The ex-post facto research design was used. The data collected was subjected to Pearson product moment correlation coefficient. The results showed that that the Mock examination developed by the Nigerian Private Secondary School had a concurrent validity index of 0.50 (@ p<0.01 and N=150) with the more standardized JAMB UTME in the 2012/13 session and a concurrent validity index of 0.59 (@ p<0.01 and N=150) during the 2013/14 session.Recommendations to enhance the quality of Mock examination were made

SOME PSYCHOSOCIAL PREDICTORS OF ANGER IN SCHOOL CHILDREN

A cross sectional survey of children in secondary school was conducted to determine the association between family relation and anger in school children. The participants were one hundred and seventeen (117) senior secondary (SS) school 1-3 students drawn from a Government-owned school in Lagos, Nigeria. 34% of the respondents were in SS1, 33% were in SS2, and 33% were in SS3. They ranged between 12-18 years in age (X =15.51, SD = 1.28). The participants included 12-18 years. Family relation was measured using the Index of Family Relations (Hudson, 1992), while the STAS (Spielberger, 1994) was used to measure anger. The result of a hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed a statistically significantly positive association (β = .52, !! change = .27, p<.05) between family relations and anger. Family relation also positively correlated with state anger (β = .48, !! change = .228, p<.05), trait anger (β = .44, !! change = .19, p<.05), and anger temperament (β = .54, !! change = .29, p<.05). Religion correlated significant with trait anger (β = -.18, p<.05). There was a moderate correlation between gender and anger temperament, and a moderate interactive effect of family relation and age on anger temperament. However, family relations did not predict angry reaction in the participants. The findings suggest the role of family relations on school children’s disposition to angry emotions. It also indicates qualitative difference between angry emotion and angry behaviour, which may require additional conditions to manifest. Thus, intervention programmes that are specifically designed for angry school children should incorporate programmes that target the effect of address family background of the individual, as well as the teaching of strategies for coping with anger eliciting situations

Water Supply and Sanitation Challenges in an Urban Setting: A Case Study

Access to clean water, good sanitation services and improved hygiene practices enhance sound health, boost socio-cultural development, and promote economic balance. This study is focused on investigating and identifying the state of water, sanitation and hygiene practices in an urban setting, and proffer solutions to the probable challenges associated with it. Five Local Government areas (LGAs) of Lagos State were selected for this study. The survey involved the use of structured questionnaires administered to randomly selected residents from the LGAs. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software application and descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. The study reveals that access to water and proper sanitation is insufficient and its services is at high cost to many of the residents who live below the poverty line of less than $2 per day. The supply of water from the water corporation to the local government is not sufficient thereby making many to rely on commercial and private boreholes which often time is expensive. The result also shows that indifferent attitude characterizes poor sanitation which is basically associated with poor maintenance, indiscriminate dumping of refuse in drains and ineffective drainage systems. It is therefore important that sustained cooperation be developed among key actors in order to reduce cost of gaining access to potable water. There should also be continuous sensitization and enlightenment campaigns to the public on the dangers of environmental neglect