The serotype distribution among healthy carriers before vaccination is essential for predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on invasive disease.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have substantially reduced morbidity and mortality of pneumococcal disease. The impact of the 7-valent PCV on all-serotype invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children was reported to vary between high-income countries. We investigate the ability to predict this heterogeneity from pre-vaccination data. We propose a parsimonious model that predicts the impact of PCVs from the odds of vaccine serotype (VT) among carriers and IPD cases in the pre-PCV period, assuming that VT are eliminated in a mature PCV programme, that full serotype replacement occurs in carriage and that invasiveness of the NVT group is unchanged. We test model performance against the reported impact of PCV7 on childhood IPD in high-income countries from a recent meta-analysis. The odds of pre-PCV7 VT IPD, PCV schedule, PCV coverage and whether a catch up campaign was used for introduction was gathered from the same analysis. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis to obtain the odds of pre-PCV7 VT carriage in the respective settings. The model predicted the reported impact on childhood IPD of mature PCV programmes; the ratio of predicted and observed incidence risk ratios was close to 1 in all settings. In the high income settings studied differences in schedule, coverage, and catch up campaigns were not associated with the observed heterogeneity in impact of PCV7 on childhood all-serotype IPD. The pre-PCV7 proportion of VT IPD alone also had limited predictive value. The pre-PCV7 proportion of VT carriage and IPD are the main determinants for the impact of PCV7 on childhood IPD and can be combined in a simple model to provide predictions of the vaccine preventable burden of IPD

Event-based surveillance at health facility and community level in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The International Health Regulations require member states to establish "capacity to detect, assess, notify and report events". Event-based surveillance (EBS) can contribute to rapid detection of acute public health events. This is particularly relevant in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) which may have poor public health infrastructure. To identify best practices, we reviewed the literature on the implementation of EBS in LMICs to describe EBS structures and to evaluate EBS systems. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search of six databases to identify articles that evaluated EBS in LMICs and additionally searched for grey literature. We used a framework approach to facilitate qualitative data synthesis and exploration of patterns across and within articles. RESULTS: We identified 778 records, of which we included 15 studies concerning 13 different EBS systems. The 13 EBS systems were set up as community-based surveillance, health facility-based surveillance or open surveillance (ie, notification by non-defined individuals and institutions). Four systems were set up in outbreak settings and nine outside outbreaks. All EBS systems were integrated into existing routine surveillance systems and pre-existing response structures to some extent. EBS was described as useful in detecting a large scope of events, reaching remote areas and guiding outbreak response. CONCLUSION: Health facility and community-based EBS provide valuable information that can strengthen the early warning function of national surveillance systems. Integration into existing early warning and response systems was described as key to generate data for action and to facilitate rapid verification and response. Priority in its implementation should be given to settings that would particularly benefit from EBS strengths. This includes areas most prone to outbreaks and where traditional 'routine' surveillance is suboptimal

Clinical Impact of MALDI-TOF MS Identification and Rapid Susceptibility Testing on Adequate Antimicrobial Treatment in Sepsis with Positive Blood Cultures.

Shortening the turn-around time (TAT) of positive blood culture (BC) identification (ID) and susceptibility results is essential to optimize antimicrobial treatment in patients with sepsis. We aimed to evaluate the impact on antimicrobial prescription of a modified workflow of positive BCs providing ID and partial susceptibility results for Enterobacteriaceae (EB), Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus on the day of BC positivity detection. This study was divided into a pre-intervention period (P0) with a standard BC workflow followed by 2 intervention periods (P1, P2) with an identical modified workflow. ID was performed with MALDI-TOF MS from blood, on early or on overnight subcultures. According to ID results, rapid phenotypic assays were realized to detect third generation cephalosporin resistant EB/P. aeruginosa or methicillin resistant S. aureus. Results were transmitted to the antimicrobial stewardship team for patient's treatment revision. Times to ID, to susceptibility results and to optimal antimicrobial treatment (OAT) were compared across the three study periods. Overall, 134, 112 and 154 positive BC episodes in P0, P1 and P2 respectively were included in the analysis. Mean time to ID (28.3 hours in P0) was reduced by 65.3% in P1 (10.2 hours) and 61.8% in P2 (10.8 hours). Mean time to complete susceptibility results was reduced by 27.5% in P1 and 27% in P2, with results obtained after 32.4 and 32.6 hours compared to 44.7 hours in P0. Rapid tests allowed partial susceptibility results to be obtained after a mean time of 11.8 hours in P1 and 11.7 hours in P2. Mean time to OAT was decreased to 21.6 hours in P1 and to 17.9 hours in P2 compared to 36.1 hours in P0. Reducing TAT of positive BC with MALDI-TOF MS ID and rapid susceptibility testing accelerated prescription of targeted antimicrobial treatment thereby potentially improving the patients' clinical outcome

Summer music and arts festivals as hot spots for measles transmission: experience from England and Wales, June to October 2016.

We report 52 cases of measles linked to music and arts festivals in England and Wales, between mid-June and mid-October 2016. Nearly half were aged 15 to 19 years. Several individuals who acquired measles at one festival subsequently attended another festival while infectious, resulting in multiple interlinked outbreaks. Transmission within festivals resulted in a geographical spread of cases nationally as well as internationally, which presents particular challenges for measles control

Learning from each other in the COVID-19 pandemic

The increase in cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide has been paralleled by increasing information, and misinformation. Accurate public health messaging is essential to counter this, but education may also have a role. Early in the outbreak, The London School of Hygiene &amp; Tropical Medicine partnered with FutureLearn to develop a massive open online course (MOOC) on COVID-19. Our approach was grounded in social constructivism, supporting participation, sharing uncertainties, and encouraging discussion. The first run of the course included over 200,000 participants from 184 countries, with over 88,000 comments at the end of the three-week run. Many participants supported each other’s learning in their responses and further questions. Our experience suggests that open education can complement traditional messaging, potentially providing a sustainable approach to countering the spread of misinformation in public health.</ns4:p

Assessing the efficiency of catch-up campaigns for the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: a modelling study based on data from PCV10 introduction in Kilifi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organisation recommends the use of catch-up campaigns as part of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to accelerate herd protection and hence PCV impact. The value of a catch-up campaign is a trade-off between the costs of vaccinating additional age groups and the benefit of additional direct and indirect protection. There is a paucity of observational data, particularly from low- and middle-income countries, to quantify the optimal breadth of such catch-up campaigns. METHODS: In Kilifi, Kenya, PCV10 was introduced in 2011 using the three-dose Expanded Programme on Immunisation infant schedule and a catch-up campaign in children <5 years old. We fitted a transmission dynamic model to detailed local data, including nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), to infer the marginal impact of the PCV catch-up campaign over hypothetical routine cohort vaccination in that setting and to estimate the likely impact of alternative campaigns and their dose efficiency. RESULTS: We estimated that, within 10 years of introduction, the catch-up campaign among children <5 years old prevents an additional 65 (48-84) IPD cases across age groups, compared to PCV cohort introduction alone. Vaccination without any catch-up campaign prevented 155 (121-193) IPD cases and used 1321 (1058-1698) PCV doses per IPD case prevented. In the years after implementation, the PCV programme gradually accrues herd protection, and hence its dose efficiency increases: 10 years after the start of cohort vaccination alone the programme used 910 (732-1184) doses per IPD case averted. We estimated that a two-dose catch-up among children <1 year old uses an additional 910 (732-1184) doses per additional IPD case averted. Furthermore, by extending a single-dose catch-up campaign to children aged 1 to <2 years and subsequently to those aged 2 to <5 years, the campaign uses an additional 412 (296-606) and 543 (403-763) doses per additional IPD case averted. These results were not sensitive to vaccine coverage, serotype competition, the duration of vaccine protection or the relative protection of infants. CONCLUSIONS: We find that catch-up campaigns are a highly dose-efficient way to accelerate population protection against pneumococcal disease

Assessment of a health facility based active case finding system for Ebola virus disease in Mbandaka, Democratic Republic of the Congo, June-July 2018.

BACKGROUND: The ninth outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo occurred in Équateur Province from 8 May-24 July 2018. A system of health facility (HF)-based active case finding (ACF) was implemented in Mbandaka, a regional capital with four confirmed EVD cases, following completion of contact tracing. The goal of this HF-based ACF system was to look for undetected EVD cases among patients that visited HFs beginning one week prior to the system's implementation. METHODS: From 23 June - 24 July 2018, ACF teams visited HFs in Mbandaka and reviewed all medical records as far back as 17 June for any consultations meeting the suspected EVD case definition. The teams then assessed whether to validate these as suspected EVD cases based on factors such as recovery, epidemiological links, and their clinical judgement. ACF teams also assessed HFs' awareness of EVD symptoms and the process for alerting suspected cases. We calculated descriptive statistics regarding the characteristics of reviewed consultations, alert cases, and visited HFs. We also used univariate and multivariate random effects logistic regression models to evaluate the impact of repeated ACF visits to the same HF on the staff's awareness of EVD. RESULTS: ACF teams reviewed 37,746 consultations, of which 690 met the definition of a suspected case of EVD. Two were validated as suspected EVD cases and transferred to the Ebola Treatment Unit for testing; both tested negative. Repeated ACF visits to the same HF were significantly associated with improved EVD awareness (p < 0.001) in univariate and multivariate analyses. CONCLUSION: HF-based ACF during EVD outbreaks may improve EVD awareness and reveal many individuals meeting the suspected case definition. However, many who meet this definition may not have EVD, depending on the population size covered by ACF and amount of ongoing EVD transmission. Given the burdensome procedure of testing suspected EVD cases, future HF-based ACF systems would benefit from improved clarity on which patients require further testing

Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam.

Although catch-up campaigns (CCs) at the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) may accelerate their impact, supply constraints may limit their benefit if the need for additional PCV doses results in introduction delay. We studied the impact of PCV13 introduction with and without CC in Nha Trang, Vietnam - a country that has not yet introduced PCV - through a dynamic transmission model. We modelled the impact on carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) of routine vaccination (RV) only and that of RV with CCs targeting <1y olds (CC1), <2y olds (CC2) and <5y olds (CC5). The model was fitted to nasopharyngeal carriage data, and post-PCV predictions were based on best estimates of parameters governing post-PCV dynamics. With RV only, elimination in carriage of vaccine-type (VT) serotypes is predicted to occur across all age groups within 10 years after introduction, with near-complete replacement by non-VT. Most of the benefit of CCs is predicted to occur within the first 3 years with the highest impact at one year, when IPD incidence is predicted to be 11% (95%CrI 9 - 14%) lower than RV with CC1, 25% (21 - 30 %) lower with CC2 and 38% (32 - 46%) lower with CC5. However, CCs would only prevent more cases of IPD insofar as such campaigns do not delay introduction by more than about 6, 12 and 18 months for CC1, CC2 and CC5. Those findings are important to help guide vaccine introduction in countries that have not yet introduced PCV, particularly in Asia

Carriage prevalence and serotype distribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae prior to 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine introduction: A population-based cross-sectional study in South Western Uganda, 2014.

BACKGROUND: Information on Streptococcus pneumoniae nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage before the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction is essential to monitor impact. The 10-valent PCV (PCV10) was officially introduced throughout Ugandan national childhood immunization programs in 2013 and rolled-out countrywide during 2014. We aimed to measure the age-specific Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage and serotype distribution across all population age groups in the pre-PCV10 era in South Western Uganda. METHODS: We conducted a two-stage cluster, age-stratified, cross-sectional community-based study in Sheema North sub-district between January and March 2014. One NP swab was collected and analyzed for each participant in accordance with World Health Organization guidelines. RESULTS: NP carriage of any pneumococcal serotype was higher among children <2years old (77%; n=387) than among participants aged ≥15years (8.5%; n=325) (chi2 p<0.001). Of the 623 positive cultures, we identified 49 serotypes among 610 (97.9%) isolates; thirteen (2.1%) isolates were non-typeable. Among <2years old, serotypes 6A, 6B, 14, 15B, 19F and 23F accounted for half of all carriers. Carriage prevalence with PCV10 serotypes was 29.4% among individuals aged <2years (n=387), 23.4% in children aged 2-4years (n=217), 11.4% in 5-14years (n=417), and 0.4% among individuals ≥15years of age (n=325). The proportion of carried pneumococci serotypes contained in PCV10 was 38.1% (n=291), 32.8% (n=154), 29.4% (n=156), and 4.4% (n=22) among carriers aged <2years, 2-4years, 5-14years and ≥15years, respectively. DISCUSSION: In Sheema district, the proportion of PCV10 serotypes was low (<40%), across all age groups, especially among individuals aged 15years or older (<5%). PCV10 introduction is likely to impact transmission among children and to older individuals, but less likely to substantially modify pneumococcal NP ecology among individuals aged 15years or older

Increased transmissibility and global spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern as at June 2021.

We present a global analysis of the spread of recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 variants and estimate changes in effective reproduction numbers at country-specific level using sequence data from GISAID. Nearly all investigated countries demonstrated rapid replacement of previously circulating lineages by the World Health Organization-designated variants of concern, with estimated transmissibility increases of 29% (95% CI: 24-33), 25% (95% CI: 20-30), 38% (95% CI: 29-48) and 97% (95% CI: 76-117), respectively, for B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 and B.1.617.2