The impact of the Polar Code on risk mitigation in Arctic waters : a “toolbox” for underwriters?

The existing risk weighing on vessel, crew and ecosystem in the Arctic and more globally in Polar waters promoted the adoption of the Polar Code (PC) early 2017, a mandatory international legal framework intended for enhanced safety and environmental protection. While the substance of the PC has been extensively analyzed, few studies have focused on the underlying relationships between the PC and underwriters. Based on an extensive literature review, documentary materials and interviews with insurance companies, this article conceptualizes the PC as a toolbox and analyzes how underwriters can exploit it in their work within the emerging Arctic market. The PC does not only regulate the navigation in Arctic waters in legal terms, but is also aimed at mitigating risks in the Polar areas through the identification of hazard sources and proceduralization of risk assessment. As a result we observe a certain Polar Code paradox. Even though the PC is a risk-based instrument and constitutes a key step for improving ship insurability, it has only limited capacity to assist underwriters in assessing risks and insuring vessels. Marine insurers still face a lack of data and high pending uncertainties leading them to exercise extreme caution with Arctic risks appraisal.Peer reviewe

Self-Concordant Analysis of Generalized Linear Bandits with Forgetting

International audienceContextual sequential decision problems with categorical or numerical observations are ubiquitous and Generalized Linear Bandits (GLB) offer a solid theoretical framework to address them. In contrast to the case of linear bandits, existing algorithms for GLB have two drawbacks undermining their applicability. First, they rely on excessively pessimistic concentration bounds due to the non-linear nature of the model. Second, they require either non-convex projection steps or burn-in phases to enforce boundedness of the estimators. Both of these issues are worsened when considering non-stationary models, in which the GLB parameter may vary with time. In this work, we focus on self-concordant GLB (which include logistic and Poisson regression) with forgetting achieved either by the use of a sliding window or exponential weights. We propose a novel confidence-based algorithm for the maximum-likehood estimator with forgetting and analyze its perfomance in abruptly changing environments. These results as well as the accompanying numerical simulations highlight the potential of the proposed approach to address non-stationarity in GLB

Special Issue: Design, management, sustainability and evaluation of transportation systems in the Arctic

The abstract is included in the text

Specific detection of methionine 27 mutation in histone 3 variants (H3K27M) in fixed tissue from high-grade astrocytomas

Studies in pediatric high-grade astrocytomas (HGA) by our group and others have uncovered recurrent somatic mutations affecting highly conserved residues in histone 3 (H3) variants. One of these mutations leads to analogous p.Lys27Met (K27M) mutations in both H3.3 and H3.1 variants, is associated with rapid fatal outcome, and occurs specifically in HGA of the midline in children and young adults. This includes diffuse intrinsic pontine gliomas (80 %) and thalamic or spinal HGA (>90 %), which are surgically challenging locations with often limited tumor material available and critical need for specific histopathological markers. Here, we analyzed formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues from 143 pediatric HGA and 297 other primary brain tumors or normal brain. Immunohistochemical staining for H3K27M was compared to tumor genotype, and also compared to H3 tri-methylated lysine 27 (H3K27me3) staining, previously shown to be drastically decreased in samples carrying this mutation. There was a 100 % concordance between genotype and immunohistochemical analysis of H3K27M in tumor samples. Mutant H3K27M was expressed in the majority of tumor cells, indicating limited intra-tumor heterogeneity for this specific mutation within the limits of our dataset. Both H3.1 and H3.3K27M mutants were recognized by this antibody while non-neoplastic elements, such as endothelial and vascular smooth muscle cells or lymphocytes, did not stain. H3K27me3 immunoreactivity was largely mutually exclusive with H3K27M positivity. These results demonstrate that mutant H3K27M can be specifically identified with high specificity and sensitivity using an H3K27M antibody and immunohistochemistry. Use of this antibody in the clinical setting will prove very useful for diagnosis, especially in the context of small biopsies in challenging midline tumors and will help orient care in the context of the extremely poor prognosis associated with this mutation. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00401-014-1337-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Relevance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for bulk shipping

International audienceSome scholars consider that today’s market conditions are in favor of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) rather than the Suez Canal Route (SCR). However, the number of bulk carriers using the NSR remains extremely limited, despite higher fuel prices since 2009 and subsequent significant fuel savings. In 2013, there were 53 transits via the Arctic, out of which 27 by oil tankers and 6 by bulk carriers. In this article we show that this result might be attributable to a factor, which is not considered in most studies: the spot freight rate to fuel ratio which governs ship owners’ decisions regarding the sailing speed. Due to a low ratio since 2011, the speed of vessels on the SCR is at its lowest level, and potential NSR fuel savings are too limited to provide a viable alternative. We further argue that, contrary to most studies, internalizing NSR environmental benefits marginally improves the attractiveness of the NSR

Les principaux enjeux et impacts du Code polaire OMI

International audienc

Relevance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for bulk shipping

International audienceSome scholars consider that today’s market conditions are in favor of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) rather than the Suez Canal Route (SCR). However, the number of bulk carriers using the NSR remains extremely limited, despite higher fuel prices since 2009 and subsequent significant fuel savings. In 2013, there were 53 transits via the Arctic, out of which 27 by oil tankers and 6 by bulk carriers. In this article we show that this result might be attributable to a factor, which is not considered in most studies: the spot freight rate to fuel ratio which governs ship owners’ decisions regarding the sailing speed. Due to a low ratio since 2011, the speed of vessels on the SCR is at its lowest level, and potential NSR fuel savings are too limited to provide a viable alternative. We further argue that, contrary to most studies, internalizing NSR environmental benefits marginally improves the attractiveness of the NSR