Aggregate and Individual Price Adjustment

macroeconomics, price adjustment, wages, Keynes, rigidities

The Beveridge Curve

macroeconomics, Beveridge Curve

The Medium Run

macroeconomics, medium run, business cycle

Detection of Gravitational Lensing in the Cosmic Microwave Background

Gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), a long-standing prediction of the standard cosmolgical model, is ultimately expected to be an important source of cosmological information, but first detection has not been achieved to date. We report a 3.4 sigma detection, by applying quadratic estimator techniques to all sky maps from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) satellite, and correlating the result with radio galaxy counts from the NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS). We present our methodology including a detailed discussion of potential contaminants. Our error estimates include systematic uncertainties from density gradients in NVSS, beam effects in WMAP, Galactic microwave foregrounds, resolved and unresolved CMB point sources, and the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect.Comment: 27 pages, 20 figure

Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) --- the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model --- are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1312.504

Parameter Identification in a Probabilistic Setting

Parameter identification problems are formulated in a probabilistic language, where the randomness reflects the uncertainty about the knowledge of the true values. This setting allows conceptually easily to incorporate new information, e.g. through a measurement, by connecting it to Bayes's theorem. The unknown quantity is modelled as a (may be high-dimensional) random variable. Such a description has two constituents, the measurable function and the measure. One group of methods is identified as updating the measure, the other group changes the measurable function. We connect both groups with the relatively recent methods of functional approximation of stochastic problems, and introduce especially in combination with the second group of methods a new procedure which does not need any sampling, hence works completely deterministically. It also seems to be the fastest and more reliable when compared with other methods. We show by example that it also works for highly nonlinear non-smooth problems with non-Gaussian measures.Comment: 29 pages, 16 figure

Investing in Emerging and Frontier Economies: How Blended Finance can make the most of public funding

Combating climate change and achieving the SDGs require vast investment in sustainable projects in developing countries, but the world is falling short.A crucial reason is that a rich source of funds is not being fully tapped into: the private sector, which is eager to significantly increase its sustainable investments, but is constrained by avoidable obstacles.Private investors face an unattractive risk-return nexus; they lack easy access to crucial information: e.g. which projects the public sector is planning that they could take part in, and what they entail.Exposure to the risks of investing in less mature markets, with insufficient insurance available, deters them as well.In this report, the Investor Leadership Network (ILN), whose members manage over USD 9 trillion of investments, offers solutions.It calls for better collaboration between public and private sectors to make blended finance (public/private investment partnerships) a driving force in this area.Compiled with the support of The Rockefeller Foundation, the report calls for a sea change in how multilateral development banks (MDBs), governments, foundations, and other public institutions see private-sector involvement

The Imperial IRAS-FSC Redshift Catalogue: luminosity functions, evolution and galaxy bias

We present the luminosity function and selection function of 60 micron galaxies selected from the Imperial IRAS-FSC Redshift Catalogue (IIFSCz). Three methods, including the 1/Vmax} and the parametric and non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator, are used and results agree well with each other. A density evolution proportional to (1+z)^3.4 or a luminosity evolution exp(1.7 t_L / \tau)$ where t_L is the look-back time is detected in the full sample in the redshift range [0.02, 0.1], consistent with previous analyses. Of the four infrared subpopulations, cirrus-type galaxies and M82-type starbursts show similar evolutionary trends, galaxies with significant AGN contributions show stronger positive evolution and Arp 220-type starbursts exhibit strong negative evolution. The dominant subpopulation changes from cirrus-type galaxies to M82-type starbursts at log (L_60 / L_Sun) ~ 10.3. In the second half of the paper, we derive the projected two-point spatial correlation function for galaxies of different infrared template type. The mean relative bias between cirrus-type galaxies and M82-type starbursts, which correspond to quiescent galaxies with optically thin interstellar dust and actively star-forming galaxies respectively, is calculated to be around 1.25. The relation between current star formation rate (SFR) in star-forming galaxies and environment is investigated by looking at the the dependence of clustering on infrared luminosity. We found that M82-type actively star-forming galaxies show stronger clustering as infrared luminosity / SFR increases. The correlation between clustering strength and SFR in the local Universe seems to echo the basic trend seen in star-forming galaxies in the Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey (GOODS) fields at z ~ 1.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Visualization of Inflammation in Experimental Colitis by Magnetic Resonance Imaging Using Very Small Superparamagnetic Iron Oxide Particles

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) comprise mainly ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn´s disease (CD). Both forms present with a chronic inflammation of the (gastro) intestinal tract, which induces excessive changes in the composition of the associated extracellular matrix (ECM). In UC, the inflammation is limited to the colon, whereas it can occur throughout the entire gastrointestinal tract in CD. Tools for early diagnosis of IBD are still very limited and highly invasive and measures for standardized evaluation of structural changes are scarce. To investigate an efficient non-invasive way of diagnosing intestinal inflammation and early changes of the ECM, very small superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (VSOPs) in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were applied in two mouse models of experimental colitis: the dextran sulfate sodium (DSS)-induced colitis and the transfer model of colitis. For further validation of ECM changes and inflammation, tissue sections were analyzed by immunohistochemistry. For in depth ex-vivo investigation of VSOPs localization within the tissue, Europium-doped VSOPs served to visualize the contrast agent by imaging mass cytometry (IMC). VSOPs accumulation in the inflamed colon wall of DSS-induced colitis mice was visualized in T2* weighted MRI scans. Components of the ECM, especially the hyaluronic acid content, were found to influence VSOPs binding. Using IMC, co-localization of VSOPs with macrophages and endothelial cells in colon tissue was shown. In contrast to the DSS model, colonic inflammation could not be visualized with VSOP-enhanced MRI in transfer colitis. VSOPs present a potential contrast agent for contrast-enhanced MRI to detect intestinal inflammation in mice at an early stage and in a less invasive manner depending on hyaluronic acid content