Republika Makedonija – bezvremeni mozaik migracija

This paper has the intention to depict the spatial and temporal dimensions of international migration in Macedonia. The observations are based on historical documents, from archive data and published papers all the way to contemporary records and data on immigration and emigration, as well as on interviews with Macedonian citizens who live abroad. Emigration and immigration are reviewed in two periods: first, from the earliest settlements in the area of today’s Republic of Macedonia until its independence in 1991, and second, the period from proclaiming its independence until today. Only the major migration flows that left their mark in the spatial, economic, social and cultural organization of the country are presented in the paper. Migration flows in the period of the Ottoman Empire, which have had great influence on the current demographic composition of the population of Macedonia, are given emphasis. However, an overview is also provided for other immigration flows towards Macedonia throughout history until today. A part of the paper refers to recent history and emigration after 1964, as well as to the emigration of Macedonian citizens in the period after 1991. Although estimates have been made, the question of exactly how many Macedonian citizens live outside their home country remains unanswered. At the same time, the paper touches upon an interesting topic of intensive foreigner immigration flows towards Macedonia in the period after its independence, especially from Albania, Turkey and Kosovo. Contrary to the immigration flows of foreigners, the emigration flows of Macedonian citizens are highlighted. Therefore, the positive net migration in the country is due to the immigration of foreigners with temporary and extended stay. At the same time, Macedonia is a part of the Balkan migrants’ route for the migrants from Asian and African countries.Svrha je ovog rada prikazati prostorne i vremenske dimenzije međunarodnih migracija u Makedoniji. Rad se temelji na povijesnim dokumentima, od arhivskih podataka i objavljenih radova do suvremenih zapisa i podataka o useljavanju i iseljavanju, kao i na intervjuima s makedonskim državljanima koji žive u inozemstvu. Iseljavanje i useljavanje razmatraju se u dvama razdobljima: prvome, od najstarijih naselja na području današnje Makedonije do njezine neovisnosti stečene 1991., i drugome, od proglašenja neovisnosti do danas. U radu su predstavljeni samo najvažniji migracijski tokovi koji su utjecali na prostornu, ekonomsku, društvenu i kulturnu organizaciju države. Istaknuti su migracijski tokovi iz razdoblja Osmanskog Carstva, koji su snažno utjecali na trenutačni demografski sastav stanovništva Makedonije. No pruža se i pregled drugih tokova useljavanja u Makedoniju tijekom povijesti sve do danas. Dio rada odnosi se na noviju povijest i iseljavanje nakon 1964., kao i na iseljavanje državljana Makedonije nakon 1991. Iako su dostupne određene procjene, i dalje nema odgovora na pitanje koji je točan broj državljana Makedonije koji žive izvan domovine. Istodobno se u radu spominje zanimljiva tema intenzivnih tokova imigracije stranaca u Makedoniju u razdoblju nakon stjecanja neovisnosti, osobito onih iz Albanije, Turske i Kosova. Nasuprot useljavanju stranaca ističu se tokovi emigracije državljana Makedonije. Stoga je pozitivni migracijski saldo u državi rezultat useljavanja stranaca s privremenim i produljenim boravkom. Istodobno je Makedonija i dio balkanske migrantske rute za migrante iz azijskih i afričkih zemalja

Natural regime of streamflow trends in Macedonia

This study investigates the annual and seasonal trends of minimum, mean and maximum streamflow, analyzed on 13 gauges/streams with natural regime, predominantly mountainous and homogeneously distributed in the studied area. 'e varying period of at least 40 years is used in the analysis. A2er the pre-whitening TFPW method was applied, the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were used for trend testing. 'e analysis detects significant decreasing trends in the country (according to a = 0.1 significance level). In general, the streamflow shows levels of decrease in almost all streams with lower or higher magnitude (from 0.1 to 0.01). 'e results provide a unique assessment of streamflow trends in the country and the current findings are consistent with those in other regions of Europe, especially in Southern Europe. Significant trends of decrease have been found in each of the 13 streamflow gauges throughout Macedonia without a single positive significant trend. 'e test confirmed the general decreasing streamflow trend in the country; even the stations without any significant decreasing results are generally heading downward.12

Estimation of maximum annual discharges by frequency analysis with four probability distributions in case of non-homogeneous time series (Kazani karst spring in Republic of Macedonia)

Frequency analysis is usually used in hydrology for the possibility and scale of discharge extremes, especially low flows or flood features of concrete gauge. The paper presents a frequency analysis carried out on a 51 year period (1961-2011) series of maximum annual discharge, on Kazani karst spring gauge station. The time series were non-homogenous according to Cumulative deviations test (Q = 1.531) and Standard normal homogeneity test ( = 10.543). After adjusting of annual maximum discharges (AMD) before the year of change (1995), with using AnClim software, the frequency analysis was made using four probability distributions. Obtained results show possibility of karst spring flood occurrence for different return periods. After their calculation the best fitting distribution was chosen using graphical and statistical testing between empirical and theoretical data distribution. According to the spring significance for nature and humanity, it was crucial to choose a right probability distribution for annual maximum discharges of Kazani karst spring. Therefore, a comparison using graphical and statistical testing (Kolmogorov-Smirnov, χ2 and Anderson-Darling test) was made. The best fit according to three tests was the Gumbel distribution with AMD of 4.54 m3/s for return period of 10 years, 6.06 m3/s for return period of 100 years and 7.56 m3/s for return period of 1000 years, respectively.Key words: karst spring, annual maximum discharge, hydrology, homogeneity, frequency analysis.Ocena maksimalnih letnih pretokov s frekvenčno analizo s štirimi verjetnostnimi porazdelitvami v primeru nehomogenih časovnih serij (kraški izvir Kazani v Republiki Makedoniji)Običajno uporabljamo v hidrologiji frekvenčno analizo za oceno verjetnosti in velikosti ekstremnih pretokov, še posebej nizkih tokov ali poplavnih značilnosti na določenih merilnih mestih. V članku je predstavljena frekvenčna analiza, ki je bila izvedena na seriji maksimalnih letnih pretokov izmerjenih na merilni postaji na kraškem izviru Kazani v obdobju 51 let (1961-2011). Glede na rezultate testa kumulativnih odklonov (Q = 1,531) in testa SNHT ( = 10,543) je časovna serija nehomogena. Po prilagoditvi letnih maksimalnih pretokov pred letom spremembe (1995) z uporabo programske opreme AnClim je bila izvedena frekvenčna analiza z uporabo štirih verjetnostnih porazdelitev. Dobljeni rezultati kažejo na verjetnost pojava poplav na kraškem izviru za različne povratne dobe. Po izračunu so bile z uporabo grafičnih in statističnih primerjav med empirično in teoretično razporeditvijo podatkov določene porazdelitve z najboljšim ujemanjem. Ker je izvir naravna vrednota in pomemben vir za družbo, je zelo pomembno izbrati ustrezno verjetnostno porazdelitev za maksimalne letne pretoke kraškega izvira Kazani. Zato je bila izvedena primerjava z uporabo grafičnih in statističnih testov (Kolmogorov-Smirnov, χ2 in Anderson-Darling). Najboljše ujemanje glede na te tri teste je bilo doseženo pri Gumbelovi porazdelitvi z maksimalnim letnim pretokom 4,54 m3/s za povratno dobo 10 let, 6,06 m3/s za povratno dobo 100 let in 7,56 m3/s za povratno dobo 1000 let.Ključne besede: kraški izvir, maksimalni letni pretok, hidrologija, homogenost, frekvenčna analiza

Characteristics of the unemployment in the Republic of Macedonia

This paper focuses on the fact that Republic of Macedonia has faced for many years a high unemployment rate of over 30%. The indications that average third of the unemployed are aged 25 to 34 years are alarming; almost half of the unemployed are without qualifications; and over 80% of the unemployed wait for employment for over 11 months. Obviously, these situations differ on a regional level, depending on the demographic and economic characteristics of the region. This paper emphasizes the need for further knowledge of the structural characteristics of the contingent of unemployed persons in Macedonia as a basis for further planning in the field of economy and non-economic sector, providing additional guidance in education, forming a strategy for equally regional economic and demographic development, which largely depends on the ability or inability of the person to be employed in some place