Financial exuberance in Latin America: an empirical study for the equity market

The subject of the present study is the potential existence of speculative bubbles in the Latin American equities markets as it has been shown to exist prior to market crashes in several other stock indexes of developed markets. The time series of the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America and its several sub indices is analysed for the time period from January 1995 to February 2018 using the supremum Augmented Dickey Fuller test as well as recursive regression methodologies proposed by Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011) and Phillips, Shi and Yu (2013)

State Policies Can Cut Energy Dependence

The United States’ dependence on energy imports of fossil fuels has resulted in political and economic insecurity, as well as the depletion of natural resources and increased pollution. Although renewable energy production also creates negative externalities, their scope is much smaller than those caused by the generation of non-renewable energy. Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) requires the electric power industry to include renewable sources of energy. RPS policies can have a significant impact on renewable energy deployment if they have adequate enforcement mechanisms

Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.

This dissertation focuses on forecasting rare macroeconomic events, such as GDP declines and currency crises, using non-parametric methods, highlighting the advantages of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves analysis and the value of qualitative information from expert surveys and textual analysis in macroeconomic forecasting. Chapter 1 shows that the qualitative WES survey can produce accurate directional macroeconomic forecasts for the USA by combining the ROC curves analysis with contingency tables, and that the ROC-optimal thresholds yield more accurate predictions than the alternatives in Hutson et al. (2014). Chapter 2 re-examines indicators of currency crises from Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) and subsequent studies using the ROC curves analysis and shows that the ROC-optimal thresholds issue more accurate signals than the minimum noise-to-signal ratio previously used in the literature. Modified ROC curves display the relationship between the precision of sent signals and the recall of crisis episodes. Forecast combinations using several ad-hoc rules help to improve forecast accuracy. Chapter 3 highlights asymmetric information about the U.S. economy between the Federal Reserve System (FRS) and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) via textual analysis of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. It shows that the SPF forecasters pay close attention to the FOMC minutes available to them at the time of the forecast deadline and efficiently use its information in their set. Yet, they could improve their forecasts should the FOMC minutes from the first quarterly meetings become available without a three-week publication lag. However, during their second quarterly meetings, the FOMC policy-makers accounted only for their own earlier assessment of the U.S. macroeconomy – they did not put weight on the SPF forecasts released a few weeks earlier in the same quarter

Методы Дифференциации Тарифов на Электроэнергию по Надежности

Growing electricity demand and the need to maintain excess energy capacity and meet peak demand in deregulated markets require attracting new investment and ensuring the reliability of electricity supply. These problems can be solved by differentiating electricity tariffs according to the reliability of its supply, which require taking into account the size of its costs for the creation of generating capacity and the costs of consumers associated with power outages (per 1 kWh). Paper discusses benefitts and drawbacks of these methods, and concludes that the consumer surveys should be used as the main method for assessing the costs of consumers for turning off their electricity, and as a controlling one, the cost of a backup generator (for industrial and commercial consumers) and the amount of hourly wages (for the population). Other factors: duration of the outage, warning time, type of housing and location, gender and age of consumers, the presence of children in the family, consumers' income should also be accounted for

Do the Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) promote the renewable electricity generation in the USA? Evidence from panel data econometric study.

Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a widely implemented and discussed supply side state-level regulatory policy instrument aimed to promote generation of renewable energy. Existing literature on RPS developed from discussion of an appropriate policy design, its implementation on national versus state levels and factors driving states to adopt the policy to the analysis of its effectiveness and economic impact. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of the RPS on the share of renewable energy in electricity production and to quantify it using the panel data econometrics methods. Existing literature gives contradictory evidence of RPS policy impact on various measures of renewable energy production. It seems that binary RPS indicators (taking value of one if a policy is implemented and zero otherwise) are not good predictors since they do not take into account difference between regional policies, while RPS stringency variable had good explanatory power. In this paper, I propose to use RPS fractional goal as a proxy for RPS stringency, which is easily available and does not require difficult calculations. A set of control variables and econometric model are chosen in line with previous research

Bespalova, Olga Gennadyevna (2011): Renewable portfolio standards in the USA: experience and compliance with targets. Published in: K-State Electronic Theses, Dissertations, and Reports No. May 2011 (May 2011): pp. 1-48.

Economic growth requires growth of energy consumption. In the second half of the twentieth century energy consumption began to outgrow its production and the United States. Consequently, we observe growing dependence of the U.S. economy on energy imports which is causing political and economic insecurity; increasing pollution and depletion of natural resources. One way to alleviate these problems is to encourage renewable electricity production. Because the electric power industry is the largest consumer of energy sources, including renewable energy, it has become one of the most frequent subjects of the regulatory policies and financial incentives aiming to stimulate renewable electricity production. One of the most promoted renewable energy policies in this industry is a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), which requires electric utilities and other retail electric providers to supply a specified amount of electricity sales from renewable energy sources. Currently 29 states and District of Columbia have the RPSs, while 7 states have goals; but only about two third of those with the RPS have certain targets to meet. To my best knowledge, there are no studies analyzing compliance with the RPSs targets or the role of penalty mechanism in the RPS design on meeting its goal. In this Master Thesis I estimate which states are in compliance with their individual RPSs goals and analyze which factors affect the probability of compliance, with the focus on the role of penalty size, and controlling for complimentary policies promoting renewable energy production. I use a fixed effects linear probability model and state level data. Results indicate that including a penalty in the RPS design significantly increases the probability that states will comply with their goals

ПОДХОДЫ К ИССЛЕДОВАНИЮ СОЦИАЛЬНОГО ТУРИЗМА: ЗАРУБЕЖНЫЙ И РОССИЙСКИЙ ОПЫТ

 Scientific approaches to the study of social tourism and the formation of a methodology of foreign and Russian authors are reviewerd, the factors and conditions as prerequisites of organizing social tourism and conducting empirical research are disclosed. The results of the scientific review of the research in the field of social tourism and taking the experience of organizing social recreation in Russia and in European countries on the example of social groups are of great importance for future research to cover not only social and economic issues, but also to take into account the diversity and complexity of relationships in social groups, as well as tourism providers and intermediaries to adapt their travel products to the needs and requirements of tourists, with an emphasis on accounting preferences of representatives of diverse groups.The purpose: to analyze the scientific approachesto the study of social tourism and the formation of methodology of foreign and Russian authors, identify common and special elements on the problem of social tourism, the results obtained and the prospects for its development.Methodology of research: while working with the texts of the analyzed studies and social tourism concepts comparative (comparative) and systematic methods wereapplied.The results of the study: taking into account the varieties of scientific views on social tourism, focused on the perceptions of its social importance and preferable form of organization with the participation of the State, including special programmes and social projects. Special attention is paid to the importance of the initiatives the implementation of views on social and recreation, to enable it to social groups: youth, families, the disabled, and the elderly. It will ensure the participation of social groups in tourism, promoting social integration as the way of democratization and the implementation of equal rights among various groups of the population, human freedom, their civil rights involving interaction system States with civil society.Practical implications: the results can be applied in scientific research and in the formation of research methodology of socio-economic essence of social tourism, taking into account the sociological, economic, socio-psychological approaches, as well as in programmesof teaching socio-economic disciplines in tourism. The basic techniquesoutlined in the article, methods and tools in the study of social tourism are relevant in Russia today, which should contribute to its progressive development.Рассмотрены научные подходы к исследованию социального туризма и формированию методологии зарубежных и российских авторов, раскрыты факторы и условия как предпосылки организации социального туризма и проведению эмпирических исследований. Результаты научного обзора исследований в сфере социального туризма и изучения опыта организации социального отдыха в России и европейских странах на примере социальных групп представляют в целом значимость: для будущих исследований – охватить не только социальные и экономические вопросы, но и учитывать разнообразие и сложность отношений в социальных группах, а также поставщикам туристических услуг – адаптировать свои туристические продукты к нуждам и потребностям туристов, делая акцент на учет предпочтений представителей разнородных групп.Цель: проанализировать научные подходы к исследованию социального туризма зарубежных и российских авторов, выявить общее и особенное во взглядах на проблему социального туризма, полученных результатах и перспективах его развития.Методология исследования: при работе с текстами анализируемых исследований и концепций социального туризма применялись сравнительный (компаративный) и системный методы.Результаты исследования: отмечая широту научных взглядов на социальный туризм, авторы сконцентрировали внимание на представлениях об его социальной значимости и предпочтительной форме организации с участием государства, в том числе на целевых программах и социальных проектах. Особое внимание уделяется взглядам на важность инициатив осуществления социального отдыха и оздоровления, позволяющих реализовать их для следующих социальных групп: молодежь, семьи, инвалиды, пожилые люди. Это обеспечит участие социальных групп населения в туризме, способствуя социальной интеграции как средству демократизации и равных прав представителей различных групп населения, гражданских прав человека с участием системы взаимодействия государства с гражданским обществом.Область применения результатов: полученные результаты могут быть применены в научных исследованиях и при формировании методологии исследования социально-экономической сущности социального туризма с учетом социологического, экономического, социально-психологического подходов, а также в ходе преподавания социально-экономических дисциплин при изучении туристической сферы. Обозначенные в статье основные методы, способы и инструменты в исследовании социального туризма актуальны в современной России, что должно способствовать его поступательному развитию

Cytogenomic Profile of Uterine Leiomyoma: In Vivo vs. In Vitro Comparison

We performed a comparative cytogenomic analysis of cultured and uncultured uterine leiomyoma (UL) samples. The experimental approach included karyotyping, aCGH, verification of the detected chromosomal abnormalities by metaphase and interphase FISH, MED12 mutation analysis and telomere measurement by Q-FISH. An abnormal karyotype was detected in 12 out of 32 cultured UL samples. In five karyotypically abnormal ULs, MED12 mutations were found. The chromosomal abnormalities in ULs were present mostly by complex rearrangements, including chromothripsis. In both karyotypically normal and abnormal ULs, telomeres were ~40% shorter than in the corresponding myometrium, being possibly prerequisite to chromosomal rearrangements. The uncultured samples of six karyotypically abnormal ULs were checked for the detected chromosomal abnormalities through interphase FISH with individually designed DNA probe sets. All chromosomal abnormalities detected in cultured ULs were found in corresponding uncultured samples. In all tumors, clonal spectra were present by the karyotypically abnormal cell clone/clones which coexisted with karyotypically normal ones, suggesting that chromosomal abnormalities acted as drivers, rather than triggers, of the neoplastic process. In vitro propagation did not cause any changes in the spectrum of the cell clones, but altered their ratio compared to uncultured sample. The alterations were unique for every UL. Compared to its uncultured counterpart, the frequency of chromosomally abnormal cells in the cultured sample was higher in some ULs and lower in others. To summarize, ULs are characterized by both inter- and intratumor genetic heterogeneity. Regardless of its MED12 status, a tumor may be comprised of clones with and without chromosomal abnormalities. In contrast to the clonal spectrum, which is unique and constant for each UL, the clonal frequency demonstrates up or down shifts under in vitro conditions, most probably determined by the unequal ability of cells with different genetic aberrations to exist outside the body

Virus-associated chronic endometritis: treatment options

Aim. To evaluate the effectiveness of Alloferon (Allokin-alfa) in the complex treatment of virus-associated chronic endometritis (CE) in patients with infertility, papillomavirus infection (PVI) persisting in the uterine cavity, and recurrent herpes-virus infection localized in the genital area. Materials and methods. A prospective (n=33) open randomized (2:1) study was conducted to assess the efficacy of Alloferon (Allokin-alfa) in the complex treatment of CE in patients with infertility, PVI, and recurrent herpes-virus infection, aged 25 to 37 years (median age 31 [29; 32.5] years). All patients received valacyclovir therapy at 500 mg once daily for 30 days from the day of randomization. Patients in the main group (n=21) simultaneously with the start of antiviral therapy received Allokin-alfa as 9 subcutaneous injections once every two days (one injection every other day). The uterine cavity microbiota of the patients was assessed 3 months after treatment, and histological and immunohistochemical studies of endometrial biopsy specimens were performed. Results. The microbiological data analysis showed HPV elimination in 71.4% vs 16.7% of patients in the alloferon and control groups, respectively (2 7.102, p=0.008). Also, in the main group, a significant decrease in the severity of CE (2 27.586, p0.001) and p16ink4a protein expression levels (2 6.17, p=0.013) were observed. Conclusion. In the treatment of virus-associated CE, the addition of alloferon to virus-suppressive therapy leads to higher rates of HPV elimination from the uterine cavity and significantly reduces the severity of CE