The Life Cycle Hypothesis and Uncertainty: Analyzing Aging Savings Relationship in Tunisia

This research empirically checks the effect of uncertainty on aging-saving link that is indirectly captured by an auxiliary variable: the unemployment. It looks at the nexus population aging and savings by bringing out the unemployment context importance in determination saving behavior notably in a setting of unavailability of unemployment allowance. To better estimate population aging, it considers the old-age dependency ratio besides the total dependency one, which is the usually indicator used. Applying the Structural VAR model, the variance decomposition technique and the response impulse function, on Tunisia during 1970–2019, it puts on show that elderly do not dissave in a context of enduring unemployment and unavailability of unemployment allowance. Unemployment is an important factor able to shaping the saving behavior and to distort the life cycle hypothesis’s prediction. Consequently, the life cycle hypothesis cannot be validated under uncertainty. Hence, aging does not to alter savings systematically. The nature of aging-saving relationship is upon to social and economic context

Education, fertility and economic growth in Tunisia

L'Homme est le bénéficiaire ultime et l'intrant essentiel du développement et de la croissance. Le capital humain identifié comme moteur de la croissance économique est fortement lié à la variable démographique. L'institution familiale par ses décisions de fécondité et d'investissement en éducation de ses membres est un préambule pour la formation du capital humain. L'intérêt est porté, alors, à l'interaction entre la quantité et la qualité de l'Homme. Notre étude de la croissance économique est conduite par l'analyse de la fécondité comme variable de croissance économique. Elle cherche à dégager les influences de la fécondité notamment par ses interactions avec l'éducation dans l'explication des performances économiques. Grâce à des analyses: macro et microéconomique, nous vérifions la présence d'une association éducation-fécondité et sa contribution dans le processus de la croissance pour la Tunisie. Une analyse quantitative dynamique du lien entre la fécondité, l'éducation et la croissance économique aussi bien à long terme qu'à court terme au cours de la période 1963-2007 est entreprise employant les techniques de séries temporelles. Aussi, une analyse quantitative de la fécondité : naturelle, désirée, réelle, de l'écart et de la régulation est mise en œuvre par des modèles micro économétriques tels que ceux de choix discret, de comptage et de durée. Elle prouve que le comportement des ménages est guidé par l'arbitrage entre la quantité et la qualité d'enfants et met en évidence les déterminants économiques et socioculturels. Ces analyses permettent d'annoncer les politiques cadrant le comportement familial de fécondité dans le processus de développement.Human is the final benefit and the essential input of economic growth and development. Human capital as an economic growth driving force is strongly influenced by demographic variables. Family institution is a preliminary for human capital accumulation considering its fertility and education investment in its member's decision. Hence, human capital analysis leads necessary to endogenous population growth. Then, our interest is focused to human quantity and quality interaction. Our economic growth investigation is so conducted by analysing fertility as economic growth variable. Our essay is to put out fertility influences notably by its interaction with education in explaining economic performances. Referring to macro and micro economic family analysis, we verify education/fertility relationship and its contribution in the growth process in Tunisian case. A long and short dynamic quantitative analysis of fertility, education and growth equilibrium relationship over the period 1963-2007 is undertaken using times series technique. Although a quantitative analysis of actual, desired, their gap, natural and regulation fertility is applied using micro econometric models such as dichotomous model, count data model and duration model. It attests that Tunisian household behaviour is shaped by quantity-quality children trade-off and also highlights economic and sociocultural fertility determinants. These analyses give out policies matching family fertility behaviour in the development process

Fertility Regulation Behavior: Sequential Decisions in Tunisia

Fertility analysis in Tunisia is revisited by focusing on regulation instruments instead of the number of births or the number of children alive. In Muslim societies, in which marriage is the exclusive acknowledged childbearing context, a woman may be seen as starting her fertility regulation period by postponing her age at marriage. Once married, she can adjust the delay before her first birth control. Then, she can decide whether or not to use a contraceptive, and finally she can select a specific contraception method. These four decisions, approximately arranged sequentially, may somewhat interact with the sequential stages of the woman’s lifecycle and involve distinct motivations: (1) enrolment in higher education; (2) participation in the labor market; (3) a given fertility objective; and (4) dealing with middle age and old age health problems.Using data from the 2001 Tunisian PAP-FAM survey data, we estimate econometric models that provide an approximate description of fertility regulation as an outcome of the above sequential decisions. Accordingly, the significant effects of our explanatory variables gradually arise and vanish across the models as the women proceeds in her fertility regulation process. Our findings suggest that family network and sociocultural environment greatly shape the household preference for children. Although strict causality inference is beyond the possibilities of a single cross-section, the elicited correlations point to suggestive explanations that call for additional collection efforts to better capture lifecycle decisions of family members and the interactions of the extended family across this lifecycle

Revisiting Fertility Regulation and Family Ties in Tunisia

Background We revisit fertility regulation in Tunisia by examining the role of the extended family. As marriage is the exclusive acknowledged childbearing context, we examine fertility analysis in Tunisia through the se-quence: woman’s marriage age, post-marriage delay in the first use of contraception, and past and cur-rent contraceptive use. We trace the family socio-economic influences that operate through these deci-sions.Methods Using data from the 2001 PAP-FAM Tunisian survey, we estimate the duration and probability models of these birth control decisions. Results In Tunisia, family ties and socio-cultural environment appear to hamper fertility regulation that oper-ates through the above decisions. This is notably the case for couples whose marriages are arranged by the extended family or who benefit from financial support from both parental families.Conclusion This calls for family planning policies that address more the extended families.Keywords: Fertility regulation; Age at marriage; Birth control; Family influence; Contraception; Tunisi

Revisiting fertility regulation and family ties in Tunisia

International audienceBackground We revisit fertility regulation in Tunisia by examining the role of the extended family. As marriage is the exclusive acknowledged childbearing context, we examine fertility analysis in Tunisia through the sequence: woman's marriage age, post-marriage delay in the first use of contraception, and past and current contraceptive use. We trace the family socioeconomic influences that operate through these decisions. Methods Using data from the 2001 PAP-FAM Tunisian survey, we estimate the duration and probability models of these birth control decisions. Results In Tunisia, family ties and socio-cultural environment appear to hamper fertility regulation that operates through the above decisions. This is notably the case for couples whose marriages are arranged by the extended family or who benefit from financial support from both parental families. Conclusion This calls for family planning policies that address more the extended families