Connectivity of the Pulley Ridge with remote locations as inferred from satellite- tracked drifter trajectories

Using historical (1994-2017) satellite‐tracked surface drifter trajectory data, we conduct a probabilistic Lagrangian circulation study which sheds light on the connectivity of Pulley Ridge with other locations in the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent areas. The analysis reveals that Pulley Ridge is connected with the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and most of the Gulf of Mexico. Preferred connecting pathways are identified and arrival times to potential reef sites computed. The study demonstrates the importance of Pulley Ridge as a source for neighboring regions like the Dry Tortugasa, the Florida Keys, Campeche Bank, and the east Florida coast as well as a self‐recruitment area for species with short competence time. The study further suggests that the reefs in the Caribbean Sea, the Dry Tortugas, the western Florida Keys, and the West Florida Shelf can act as sources for Pulley Ridge, indicating the importance of Pulley Ridge as a central refugium for species in the Gulf of Mexico

Comparative effectiveness of autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant vs fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

Importance: Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant (AHSCT) is available for treatment of highly active multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: To compare the effectiveness of AHSCT vs fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in relapsing-remitting MS by emulating pairwise trials. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative treatment effectiveness study included 6 specialist MS centers with AHSCT programs and international MSBase registry between 2006 and 2021. The study included patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with AHSCT, fingolimod, natalizumab, or ocrelizumab with 2 or more years study follow-up including 2 or more disability assessments. Patients were matched on a propensity score derived from clinical and demographic characteristics. Exposure: AHSCT vs fingolimod, natalizumab, or ocrelizumab. Main outcomes: Pairwise-censored groups were compared on annualized relapse rates (ARR) and freedom from relapses and 6-month confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score worsening and improvement. Results: Of 4915 individuals, 167 were treated with AHSCT; 2558, fingolimod; 1490, natalizumab; and 700, ocrelizumab. The prematch AHSCT cohort was younger and with greater disability than the fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab cohorts; the matched groups were closely aligned. The proportion of women ranged from 65% to 70%, and the mean (SD) age ranged from 35.3 (9.4) to 37.1 (10.6) years. The mean (SD) disease duration ranged from 7.9 (5.6) to 8.7 (5.4) years, EDSS score ranged from 3.5 (1.6) to 3.9 (1.9), and frequency of relapses ranged from 0.77 (0.94) to 0.86 (0.89) in the preceding year. Compared with the fingolimod group (769 [30.0%]), AHSCT (144 [86.2%]) was associated with fewer relapses (ARR: mean [SD], 0.09 [0.30] vs 0.20 [0.44]), similar risk of disability worsening (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 0.91-3.17), and higher chance of disability improvement (HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.71-4.26) over 5 years. Compared with natalizumab (730 [49.0%]), AHSCT (146 [87.4%]) was associated with marginally lower ARR (mean [SD], 0.08 [0.31] vs 0.10 [0.34]), similar risk of disability worsening (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.54-2.09), and higher chance of disability improvement (HR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.72-4.18) over 5 years. AHSCT (110 [65.9%]) and ocrelizumab (343 [49.0%]) were associated with similar ARR (mean [SD], 0.09 [0.34] vs 0.06 [0.32]), disability worsening (HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 0.61-5.08), and disability improvement (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.66-2.82) over 3 years. AHSCT-related mortality occurred in 1 of 159 patients (0.6%). Conclusion: In this study, the association of AHSCT with preventing relapses and facilitating recovery from disability was considerably superior to fingolimod and marginally superior to natalizumab. This study did not find evidence for difference in the effectiveness of AHSCT and ocrelizumab over a shorter available follow-up time

Spectral, formal, and nonlinear stability in a layered quasigeostrophic model with application to the Atlantic North Equatorial Current

The stability properties of a baroclinic zonal current on the β plane are studied using a three-layer quasigeostrophic model. The model is Lie-Poisson Hamiltonian as neither forcing nor dissipation are considered. The associated integrals of motion (energy, zonal momentum, and vorticity-related Casimirs) are used in Arnold's method to evaluate formal and nonlinear (or Lyapunov) stability conditions. Six parameters entirely determine the solutions of the stability problem. The latter including: one nondimensional wavenumber of the perturbation; one stratification parameter; two Charney numbers, one planetary and one topographic (due to the geostrophic slope of the lower interface in the basic state); and two aspect ratio parameters which relate to the thicknesses of the layers in the reference state. Hydrographic data are employed to evaluate numerically the inferred stability properties in order to study the significance of baroclinic instability in a region mainly influenced by the Atlantic North Equatorial Current (NEC). The data suggest that the NEC is spectrally unstable, reflecting that the current is far too wide for a Hamiltonian (pseudo energy-momentum integral) to be negative definite. The nature of the instability is studied by virtue of the resonant interplay of vorticity-related and Rossby-like elementary modes. Growth rates and wavelengths of the most destabilizing perturbations compare well within reasonable bounds with the few in situ observations reported in the literature. A reduced-gravity two-layer model is shown to be incapable of accounting for the instability, suggesting that ocean interior effects are important in the stability properties of the NEC

Biophysical isopycnic-coordinate modelling of plankton dynamics in the Arabian Sea

A Nutrient–Phytoplankton–Zooplankton–Detritus (NPZD) ecosystem model is coupled to the Miami Isopycnic-Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) to study plankton dynamics in the Arabian Sea. Experiments oriented to testing the NPZD–MICOM coupled model sensitivity to variations in several parameters are performed. Particular attention is paid to the rates of detritus sinking and maximum phytoplankton growth rate. The coarse features of the blooms are captured by all the experiments considered, and agree with earlier models for the biological activity of the region. Intensity, duration, and peaks of the blooms are found to be quite sensitive to the parameter choices. The existence of an offshore deep chlorophyll maximum in the model is found to be closely related to the increase of the detritus sinking rate. The use of temperature-dependent maximum growth rate of phytoplankton and the increase of detritus sinking rate are shown to improve model results compared with in situ and satellite observations. The differences between the present results and those from previous modelling efforts in the region, where few- or multi-layer hydrodynamical models or even fixed-level hydrodynamical models have been employed, are found to be in the same range as the differences among the results from the various sensitivity experiments presented here. This indicates that a small uncertainty in the knowledge of the ecosystem model parameters can be more important in ecosystem modelling than the uncertainty associated to the differences in the vertical coordinate representation of the underlying hydrodynamical model. There are still biological processes, such as denitrification which affect the vertical distribution of nutrient concentrations, that are not included neither in the previous works in the area nor in the present work. This might mask any potential advantages of the present NPZD-MICOM coupled model, especially at mid-depths in the ocean

Historical analysis of environmental conditions during Florida Red Tide

•Environmental conditions during periods of large bloom and no bloom were examined.•Statistical analysis of seasonal and non-seasonal variations were conducted.•Periods of large bloom are found to only occur when the Loop Current is in the north.The most frequent and intense harmful algal blooms, of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, occur on the West Florida Shelf. Many aspects relating to such blooms remain poorly known, including environmental conditions during their occurrence. Here the position of the Loop Current, river runoff, and along- and cross-shore winds are analyzed, isolating persistent periods of no bloom (less than 100cellsL−1) and large blooms (more than 105cellsL−1). From 1993 to 2007, 9 instances are detected with a large bloom and 37 instances are found with no bloom. A two-sample unequal variance T-Test analysis reveals that the difference between periods of large blooms and periods with no bloom are statistically significant to the 90% confidence level for the Loop Current's position. Periods of large blooms are found to occur only when the Loop Current is in its northern position, due to the enhanced retention on the shelf

Rip‐current pulses tied to Lagrangian coherent structures

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041443[1] The trapping and ejection of surfzone floating material is examined by unveiling Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) hidden in the pulsating rip‐current surface velocity field produced by a three‐dimensional numerical model resolving wave‐group induced Very Low Frequency motions (VLFs). LCSs explain the typically observed patchiness of flotsam within the surf zone and the streaky distribution outside of the surf zone. The ejection of surfzone material occurs when filament‐like LCSs separate form the main rip‐current circulation corresponding to a situation where eddies temporarily extend the rip current beyond the surf zone and subsequently detach. The LCSs support the idea that VLFs form the dominant exchange mechanism of surfzone floating material with the inner shelf.ONR N000140710556National Science Foundation OCE 0754426ONR N00014‐05‐1‐0154N00014‐05‐1‐0352N0001407WR20226N0001408WR20006National Science Foundation OCE 0728324NSF CMG0417425CMG082554

Using Lagrangian Coherent Structures to understand coastal water quality

The accumulation of pollutants near the shoreline can result in low quality coastal water with negative effects on human health. To understand the role of mixing by tidal flows in coastal water quality we study the nearshore Lagrangian circulation. Specifically, we reveal Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs), i.e., distinguished material curves which shape global mixing patterns and thus act as skeletons of the Lagrangian circulation. This is done using the recently developed geodesic theory of transport barriers. Particular focus is placed on Hobie Beach, a recreational subtropical marine beach located in Virginia Key, Miami, Florida. According to studies of water quality, Hobie Beach is characterized by high microbial levels. Possible sources of pollution in Hobie Beach include human bather shedding, dog fecal matter, runoff, and sand efflux at high tides. Consistent with the patterns formed by satellite-tracked drifter trajectories, the LCSs extracted from simulated currents reveal a Lagrangian circulation favoring the retention near the shoreline of pollutants released along the shoreline, which can help explain the low quality water registered at Hobie Beach. ► Implementation of Lagrangian Coherent Structures to the study of water quality. ► Role of Lagrangian circulation in a tidal environment on controlling water quality. ► Water quality assessed in relation to human safety

Rip?current pulses tied to Lagrangian coherent structures

The trapping and ejection of surfzone floating material is examined by unveiling Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) hidden in the pulsating rip?current surface velocity field produced by a three?dimensional numerical model resolving wave?group induced Very Low Frequency motions (VLFs). LCSs explain the typically observed patchiness of flotsam within the surf zone and the streaky distribution outside of the surf zone. The ejection of surfzone material occurs when filament?like LCSs separate form the main rip?current circulation corresponding to a situation where eddies temporarily extend the rip current beyond the surf zone and subsequently detach. The LCSs support the idea that VLFs form the dominant exchange mechanism of surfzone floating material with the inner shelf.Hydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience

Lagrangian characterization of the southwestern Atlantic from a dense surface drifter deployment

The Southwestern Atlantic (SWA) is characterized by its large Eddy Kinetic Energy as the result of the confluence of two major western boundary currents, the northward flowing Malvinas Current (MC) and the southward flowing Brazil Current. The SWA study was addressed in the literature based on altimetry data, in situ measurements, regional models and ocean reanalysis. The present study constitutes the first effort to sample a portion of the SWA, with a dense drifter array (N = 62) deployment. The drifters, drogued at 15 m depths, were deployed across the MC and the Argentine Continental Shelf along two zonal transects located at 47°S and 47.25°S, between the 8th and the September 9, 2021. Drifters were set to deliver their position every 10 and 60 min, providing accurate Lagrangian trajectories that provide information on a large range of space and time scales of the surface currents. Three regions are clearly identified based on the analysis of the speed of the drifters, of their trajectories and of the spectral density of their velocities: the continental shelf, the slope and the open ocean. The comparison of the trajectories of the drifters with satellite altimetry images shows that, in general, drifters follow mesoscale features that are detectable in satellite altimetry maps. The analysis of the drifter trajectories also allowed us the study of submesoscale features of the flow (1–10 km) that are not observable in satellite altimetry data. Comparison with cloud-free, high-resolution color images, shows that drifter trajectories organized by the mesoscale flow might also locally follow sub-mesoscale features. In frontal regions it was found that drifter velocities double satellite altimetry geostrophic velocities, which suggests that the dynamics at those regions is largely dominated by ageostrophic components. The ageostrophic Ekman component might explain the direction of the drifters when strong winds from a given direction prevail for several days and the drifters are not in a region with large sea surface height (SSH) gradients. The joint analysis of drifters’ trajectory and SSH clearly depicts that mesoscale features on the open ocean region control the cross-shelf exchanges between the MC and open ocean regions as well as the strength and width of the MC. Finally, the spatial density distribution of the drifters during the first hours after deployment and within a small eddy also allowed us to characterize the flow in terms of its divergence, vorticity and strain, indicating that the MC is geostrophic and has a jet-like behavior while the eddy is largely ageostrophic and has a dominant vorticity component over strain. We conclude observing that the analysis of a dense array of drifters provides valuable information of the flow that cannot be attained solely based on satellite data. A dedicated experiment based on the deployment of 62 surface drifters, an array of unprecedented dimension for the region, was devised to improve our understanding of the surface circulation of the Argentine Continental Shelf (ACS), the Patagonian Slope and, generally, the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The main highlights derived from the analysis are.•Three regions were clearly identified based on the analysis of the speed of the drifters, their trajectories and the spectral density of their velocities: the continental shelf, the slope and the open ocean.•Within the open ocean region, drifters might exceed 1.8 m s−1 when trapped by the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC), along the northern branch of the Subantarctic Front, or between large mesoscale eddies of different polarities.•Within the slope region, thanks to the deployment strategy adopted, fine scale details of the Malvinas Current (MC) have been unveiled for the first time: large shears between jets of the MC (up to 20 cm s−1 between drifters separated by only 2.5 km) and the clear modulation of the trajectories of the drifters due to tidal currents, despite the dominant MC.•Over the ACS, drifters showed how tides are, as expected, the main forcing of the shelf circulation. However, small scale patterns may also modulate shelf currents. The origin of these patterns should be further investigated.•Clear examples of the accuracy of the geostrophic currents predicted by satellite altimetry in the different regions are provided. In general, currents in the slope and open ocean region are very well represented by the satellite altimetry estimations, at least for features at the resolved mesoscale.•The analysis of drifter trajectories also allowed the study of submesoscale features of the flow (1–10 km) that are not observable in satellite altimetry data but are visible in color images.•In frontal regions it was found that the recorded drifter velocities double satellite altimetry geostrophic velocities, suggesting that the dynamics at those regions is largely dominated by unresolved components.•First in situ evidence that mesoscale features on the open ocean region control the cross-shelf exchanges between the slope and open ocean regions as well as the strength and width of the MC, is provided.•The analysis of drifter triplets allowed us to characterize the flow in terms of its divergence, vorticity and strain. The analysis confirms that within the MC strain dominates, indicating that the MC is in geostrophic balance and has a jet-like behavior. Within a small mesoscale cyclonic eddy that trapped three drifters for more than 20 days, negative vorticity prevailed.•The potential role of Ekman transport to promote exchanges between the slope and adjacent regions is discussed. It is proposed that wind may impact drifter trajectories only in regions exhibiting small Sea Surface Height (SSH) gradients